Today update, total infected falling way behind predicted, total deaths exceeding predicted:
Here's some more data on how many tests have occurred in the US
courtesy of
this site
Something to consider is the testing in the US right now is not random so its overstating the infection rate due to the fact that the people getting tested are exhibiting symptoms and more likely to have C19. It seems we can deduce from this that FAR more people are already infected with the virus in the US that are either asymptomatic or didn't feel bad enough to go to the doctor &/or get tested.
If we can safely assume the death count is likely to be accurate because its small, easy to track and doesn't require massive testing to determine what it is, ie....a death is a death, test to see if the person had C19 and if it was the cause of the death they add to the total count accordingly. The total number could be understated by deaths that haven't been tested for C19 because they would correctly fall in priority behind that of the living. It could also be overstating C19 death totals for lack of post mortem testing as well. Still, it seems the total deaths as reported is likely to be fairly accurate, certainly much moreso than total infected.
The US currently shows approx 87,000 infected and could potentially be 10x that amount for the aforementioned reasons.
So let's assume 870,000 are actually infected the US. Using the current death total of 1321, this would result in a fatality rate of 0.001518390804598% which isn't much higher than the flu. Here's hoping the fatality rate is more in line with this calculation than our worst case fears.
Just spitballing while attempting to play armchair mathematician, so let'r rip fellas on any errors in logic, etc you see
/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-dmn.s3.amazonaws.com/public/DNSNSL435JDFFOZOWFSDARS3X4.jpg)
