Day After Thoughts: Trade edition

dbair1967

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Whirlwind trading day around the NFL yesterday with the Jets making two mega block busters and accumulating massive draft capital over the next two drafts. They are basically owning the next two years and lucky for them the 26 and 27 (especially 27) drafts appear loaded. 27 has a number of super blue chip guys and they now have 3 1st rd picks. Kudos to them, although they have to make good picks and make sure they have the right coaches in place. Both those TBD.

But nobody here cares about the Jets, unless Amigo Dodger jumps ship and decided to become a NYJ fan.

Huge day for us yesterday. I still believe the Jones' are clueless morons and I do think at least a LITTLE of the motivation to do something was their wish to deflect criticism of the Parsons stuff and the horrendous start to the season off of them. That said, the encouraging thing here is for years everyone criticized Jones (rightfully) that he was obsessed with "shiny new toys" and being a finesse team that generated lots of highlights, but no meat and potatoes effort to put resources in the trenches. That clearly isn't the case anymore.

Somebody in that building has finally convinced them that building a great team starts from inside out, and not vice versa. They may not choose the right players all the time, but there is clearly some commitment to getting more physical at the point of attack on both sides. Mazi was a huge miss unfortunately but the effort was there to get bigger and stronger up the middle. They gave him every chance to succeed and he didnt, and instead of continuing to ride it out they moved on. Keeping Odiggy was the right move. Few in the league can get into the backfield as quick (and often) as he does. But he gets double teamed alot (and stats show he is still pretty successful generating pressures). Getting Kenny Clark as part of the Parsons deal was another move to get stronger and tougher up the middle. But this move for Quinnen Williams was huge. He isn't a jag middling draft pick or even just a "solid" piece, he's a true force in the middle. He's an elite run stuffer with high end pass rush skill. He commands double teams virtually every play and is great at beating them. He works his ass off and is considered great in the locker-room. Our DL coach loves the guy. He's definitely a top 3 to 5 player at his position.

The other thing is while I hated losing the 1st rd pick in 2027, they may have somehow made a smart move for a change. This season is going south and the schedule appears incredibly difficult. They aren't going to compete for the postseason this yr (barring a miracle). Had they used the 2026 1st rounder it quite possibly would have been a top-10 pick. At least by pushing the 1st rd pick to 2027, they get a chance to get the young guys more experience, have a ton of cap room and the two 1sts in 2026 to really improve the team. There's a decent chance the team will be significantly improved next yr, moving the 2027 first DOWN in the round. I would think most expect Green Bay to be pretty good again next yr (barring injuries of course) so there's a chance both 2027 1sts would be in the 20's. Also, being able to throw waste of space Mazi in might have been the difference between giving up two 1st rd picks instead of a 2 this yr and 1 next yr. On the trade value chart, what we essentially gave up was two 2nd rd picks.

Logan Wilson I don't have any pie in the sky hopes for. He's still fairly young and is under contract for another couple yrs, so that's good. He has size and range and before getting injured last yr displayed good ability to make plays on the ball. I don't know if he will ever be that player again and he was replaced in the starting lineup by a bad Bungles with a rookie. He does have size and before this season had a great reputation for always making the tackle. He has leadership traits and it's likely he is a vast improvement over Sanborn and Murray (mainly because those two were horrendous). So potentially a decent add and it cost us almost nothing.

I thought the trades were a positive for us and we did improve the team. The trades weren't half season rentals either (which I had feared with idiot Jones pulling the strings) We also have some young pieces in place like Eze 41 who gets better every week it seems. Excited to see Shavon Revel and keeping fingers crossed that Overshown can come back and be a similar level player that he was last yr. We have real depth up front. The secondary will need a continued rebuild and they DO need to come out of either 2026 or 2027 with the QB of the future (I don't think Milton is it, although would be great if he proves everyone wrong) but I do like the moves.
 

dbair1967

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Wright makes some good points and I think he's right that Jerruh is delusional thinking his team is a contender.
I actually think he doesn't make any point. I also don't think he understands the trade value formulas.

Let's say they do nothing, are they getting a player the caliber of Quinnen Williams at DT in next years draft? They already have a good idea of what free agents will be out there, the better players will be tagged. Is there anyone as good as Williams they can sign?

If they add a player of Williams caliber now, they can use picks and cap space to address other parts of the team. (which they absolutely need to do) This move wasn't solely about THIS year. I think people assume that's why they did it (and maybe in Jerry's fucked up mind he thinks that way some) but it's still about building a roster with as much talent as possible, and he is a big piece. If they had done this and the guy was a free agent after the season, then yeah its stupid. But he's not.

They still have both 1st rd picks next yr. The Cowboys pick is likely to be higher in 2026 than it is in 2027 (again, assuming injuries don't wreck a season which you cannot predict). They actually made a somewhat smart decision by pushing the 1st rd pick to the 2027 draft (the one downside is 2027 is expected to be a better draft in terms of blue chip players) but on the trade value chart they essentially gave up two 2nd rd picks for an all pro/pro bowl caliber DT.

Lastly, they made a great move to get George Pickens. He's having a great year so far, if they cannot sign him long term before free agency next year they can franchise tag him and he is going to be an in-demand trade piece. They might get another 1st rd pick for him, or at minimum get a 2nd and something else. (Or hopefully they just sign him because he and Lamb together are excellent)
 

Dodger12

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I'm not jumping ship buddy but I'm not going to fool myself that any of these moves will make any difference. This team is toast. It's soft. The franchise is shot and has been for years but this is a convergence of all things Jerry meeting at the right time to create the perfect storm of ineptitude.

This team and it's country club atmosphere will ruin anyone we bring in. Jimmy tried to tell us a couple of years back but people dismissed it as the ramblings of an old man from a forgotten time when a HC could command respect and be tough.

We've all been around a while and the one thing I noticed in Parcell's first year was the team was tough....they'd hit you. It was smash mouth. When you have that, then your next job is to add talent and build. But it's easily lost and this franchise has lost it. Schotty is a feel good, give out awards and accolades type of HC. He can't fire his DC or discipline players. And the players know it and the results speak for themselves.

I know it's over and it's been over but we get these "sparks" every once in a while that a QB can give us but then we quicky come back to reality. Dak won't be any better next year....or the year after. It's done.....
 

theoneandonly

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Regarding the trading of the 27 best pick of the two to the Jets: Albert Breer on the Rich Eisen show this AM said the Jets insisted the pick be the better of the two picks not the 26 draft. Their reasoning is that at this point the 27 draft is considered to be consensus more talented at the top than 26. if you look big picture the four round picks over the next two years and the 26 second rounder, of the 5 picks what are the odds the Cowboys wouldn't have screwed up at least two of them? I say no worse than 50%. So getting Williams was a solid move,

Now a creative GM would likely try and move the GB 26 1st for a second in 26 and a first in 27. Since Jerry isn't creative but is an attention whore, he likely wont do this. Like a moth to a flame he will want non stop talk about what the Cowboys will do between February a April and 6 hours of attention on the night of first round draft coverage.
 

Mustang1

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Whirlwind trading day around the NFL yesterday with the Jets making two mega block busters and accumulating massive draft capital over the next two drafts. They are basically owning the next two years and lucky for them the 26 and 27 (especially 27) drafts appear loaded. 27 has a number of super blue chip guys and they now have 3 1st rd picks. Kudos to them, although they have to make good picks and make sure they have the right coaches in place. Both those TBD.

But nobody here cares about the Jets, unless Amigo Dodger jumps ship and decided to become a NYJ fan.

Huge day for us yesterday. I still believe the Jones' are clueless morons and I do think at least a LITTLE of the motivation to do something was their wish to deflect criticism of the Parsons stuff and the horrendous start to the season off of them. That said, the encouraging thing here is for years everyone criticized Jones (rightfully) that he was obsessed with "shiny new toys" and being a finesse team that generated lots of highlights, but no meat and potatoes effort to put resources in the trenches. That clearly isn't the case anymore.

Somebody in that building has finally convinced them that building a great team starts from inside out, and not vice versa. They may not choose the right players all the time, but there is clearly some commitment to getting more physical at the point of attack on both sides. Mazi was a huge miss unfortunately but the effort was there to get bigger and stronger up the middle. They gave him every chance to succeed and he didnt, and instead of continuing to ride it out they moved on. Keeping Odiggy was the right move. Few in the league can get into the backfield as quick (and often) as he does. But he gets double teamed alot (and stats show he is still pretty successful generating pressures). Getting Kenny Clark as part of the Parsons deal was another move to get stronger and tougher up the middle. But this move for Quinnen Williams was huge. He isn't a jag middling draft pick or even just a "solid" piece, he's a true force in the middle. He's an elite run stuffer with high end pass rush skill. He commands double teams virtually every play and is great at beating them. He works his ass off and is considered great in the locker-room. Our DL coach loves the guy. He's definitely a top 3 to 5 player at his position.

The other thing is while I hated losing the 1st rd pick in 2027, they may have somehow made a smart move for a change. This season is going south and the schedule appears incredibly difficult. They aren't going to compete for the postseason this yr (barring a miracle). Had they used the 2026 1st rounder it quite possibly would have been a top-10 pick. At least by pushing the 1st rd pick to 2027, they get a chance to get the young guys more experience, have a ton of cap room and the two 1sts in 2026 to really improve the team. There's a decent chance the team will be significantly improved next yr, moving the 2027 first DOWN in the round. I would think most expect Green Bay to be pretty good again next yr (barring injuries of course) so there's a chance both 2027 1sts would be in the 20's. Also, being able to throw waste of space Mazi in might have been the difference between giving up two 1st rd picks instead of a 2 this yr and 1 next yr. On the trade value chart, what we essentially gave up was two 2nd rd picks.

Logan Wilson I don't have any pie in the sky hopes for. He's still fairly young and is under contract for another couple yrs, so that's good. He has size and range and before getting injured last yr displayed good ability to make plays on the ball. I don't know if he will ever be that player again and he was replaced in the starting lineup by a bad Bungles with a rookie. He does have size and before this season had a great reputation for always making the tackle. He has leadership traits and it's likely he is a vast improvement over Sanborn and Murray (mainly because those two were horrendous). So potentially a decent add and it cost us almost nothing.

I thought the trades were a positive for us and we did improve the team. The trades weren't half season rentals either (which I had feared with idiot Jones pulling the strings) We also have some young pieces in place like Eze 41 who gets better every week it seems. Excited to see Shavon Revel and keeping fingers crossed that Overshown can come back and be a similar level player that he was last yr. We have real depth up front. The secondary will need a continued rebuild and they DO need to come out of either 2026 or 2027 with the QB of the future (I don't think Milton is it, although would be great if he proves everyone wrong) but I do like the moves.
Love your detailed analysis. Interior D line appears to be strengthened with addition and addition by subtraction ie Mazi smith. One more addition by subtraction that MUST happen is the firing of Matt Eberflus. No matter how much talent we accumulate that guy must go. He is incapable of coordinating a pro level defense. The Jerruh cannot keep him around. The search for a highly qualified DC must be part of this rebuild plan….and make no mistake about it….This is a rebuild plan whether you want to admit it or not.
 

dbair1967

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Love your detailed analysis. Interior D line appears to be strengthened with addition and addition by subtraction ie Mazi smith. One more addition by subtraction that MUST happen is the firing of Matt Eberflus. No matter how much talent we accumulate that guy must go. He is incapable of coordinating a pro level defense. The Jerruh cannot keep him around. The search for a highly qualified DC must be part of this rebuild plan….and make no mistake about it….This is a rebuild plan whether you want to admit it or not.
He certainly has minimal excuses now for there to at least be SOME improvement. They have a few guys coming back from injuries to supplement the QW and LW additions, which are vast upgrades at two bad spots for us.

If the 2nd half of the season mirrors the first, the absolute 1st thing they have to do once the game ends week 18 in NY is fire Eberflus.
 

dbair1967

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Regarding the trading of the 27 best pick of the two to the Jets: Albert Breer on the Rich Eisen show this AM said the Jets insisted the pick be the better of the two picks not the 26 draft. Their reasoning is that at this point the 27 draft is considered to be consensus more talented at the top than 26. if you look big picture the four round picks over the next two years and the 26 second rounder, of the 5 picks what are the odds the Cowboys wouldn't have screwed up at least two of them? I say no worse than 50%. So getting Williams was a solid move,

Now a creative GM would likely try and move the GB 26 1st for a second in 26 and a first in 27. Since Jerry isn't creative but is an attention whore, he likely wont do this. Like a moth to a flame he will want non stop talk about what the Cowboys will do between February a April and 6 hours of attention on the night of first round draft coverage.
Yep agree, the 27 Draft on paper certainly looks to be loaded with more blue chippers, but some of it depends on who comes out this yr and who ultimately declares for 27 too.

While the talent to pick from will likely be stronger in 27 (and by the way, 26 is expected to be better than most recent drafts itself) I still think the odds are is our record this yr will be worse than 26, meaning we'd be giving up a much higher pick. Most people assume GB will still be pretty good next yr but we should be better as well. We have two 1st rd picks plus a ton of cap space. We also have one of the youngest teams in the league.
 
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We have two 1st rd picks plus a ton of cap space.
Current projection has us nearly $37M over the cap for 2026. Now I'm sure Cap Boy Spawn can get creative and move some money around to get us under, but we most certainly don't have 'a ton of cap space'...

Screenshot_20251106-134328_Chrome.jpg
 

dbair1967

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Current projection has us nearly $37M over the cap for 2026. Now I'm sure Cap Boy Spawn can get creative and move some money around to get us under, but we most certainly don't have 'a ton of cap space'...

View attachment 20831
I don't know how they do their calculation exactly but almost everyone covering the team has been saying they'll have 30-40 million.

Some contracts will be automatic restructures (not adding years). Dak has a 74 million cap hit per Spotrac for 2026 and 68 million for 2027. Cee Dee is 38 million and the 3 DT's are all 21-22 million. Q Williams will likely get an extension. Clark could be a restructure or potentially not here.

Spotrac shows team cap space of negative 15 million currently, but the dead money equals what you shows above.
 
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