Interesting:
5 most overrated NFL Draft prospects expected to go in Round 1
Story by Rucker Haringey
• 12h
Every NFL front office is hard at work scouting a number of draft prospects in hopes of landing big-talent talent in April. Hitting on a first-round pick is a requirement for any team looking to improve its future prospects. Unfortunately, missing on a player in Round 1 can set any team back in ther hopes of competing for a Super Bowl crown.
The five players on this list have a chance to develop into quality starters at the next level but each represents too much risk to hear their name called where they're currently expected to go in Round 1 of the
NFL Draft. Some have the talent required to go later than they're projected to go on Day One, but others should fall to later rounds before they're selected by any franchise.
The teams that select any of the five following prospects are in danger of squandering their most valuable draft pick. Each has the potential to get the GM that approves their selection in serious trouble with ownership.
5. Graham Barton, OT, Duke
Graham Barton is a quality technician who played left tackle at Duke but is expected to move to guard or center at the next level. Scouts appreciate his technique and versatility. Both give him a relatively high floor as a prospect.
The trouble with Barton is that it's difficult to see him blossoming into anything more than an average starter. The standard for an interior lineman who is selected in Round 1 should be significantly higher. Barton's lack of star potential makes him a poor value pick where he's currently projected to go towards the bottom of the first-round.
Drafting Barton isn't going to get a GM fired but it's not the sort of swing for a high-end talent that should happen late in Round 1. He just doesn't have the juice to justify his current draft projection.
4. Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
Nate Wiggins is the exact opposite of Graham Barton as a first-round prospect. He clearly has star potential as a starting cornerback at the pro level but he has too much bust potential to project as a possible top-15 pick.
The former Clemson star has everything general managers covet when he's permitted to sink his hips in coverage. His man-to-man skills could make him a Pro Bowl defensive back. It's easy to understand why some front offices will be tempted to take him in the top half of Round 1.
The downside to Wiggins is that his tape shows him to be allergic to physical contact. It's difficult to tell if he's a quality tackler because of his complete lack of effort. His lack of willingness to compete in that regards should give NFL decision makers significant pause before they spend a first-round pick to acquire him.
Wiggins could see his stock rise if he's able to post an electric 40-yard-dash time at either the Combine or his Pro Day. His sprint time shouldn't distract evaluators from the fact that doesn't show willingness to be a hitter in the secondary or near the line of scrimmage. He has great finesse but his lack of substance could make him the next Greedy Williams if he doesn't adjust his game.
3. Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Jayden Daniels absolutely deserves to be a first-round pick on the heels of a tremendous final collegiate season at LSU. The issue with his draft stock is that he doesn't profile as the top-five selection that many mocks identify him as currently.
The first significant negative about Daniels is his lack of strength. He checks in at 6-foot-4, 210 pounds which makes him an injury risk at the pro level. It's a particular concern since Daniels likes to use his legs to create yards on the perimeter. That produces breathtaking plays but also exposes Daniels to hits he might not be able to survive in the NFL.
Additional concerns about Daniels' game should center around his inconsistent arm talent. He flashes velocity and accuracy but he makes too many throws that lack either quality. Some of that can be corrected by improvement with his footwork by NFL coaches but he lacks elite arm talent.
Selecting Daniels somewhere in the middle of Round 1 would be an appropriate gamble by a quarterback-needy team. Unfortunately, the positional value placed on the quarterback position will continue to push his draft stock higher and higher as the process rolls along. Taking him in the top-5 is too rich but only by 10 slots or so.
2. Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
Jackson Powers-Johnson is getting late first-round buzz after winning the Rimington Trophy during his final season at Oregon. He was a very productive interior lineman for the Ducks but he may not be an immediate starter at the pro level.
Any center taken in Round 1 needs to project as an immediate quality starter to justify going in the top-30 picks. Powers-Johnson needs a lot of work if he's going to understand how to move massive interior lineman on Sundays. Specifically, his hand placement must improve dramatically if he's going to shift opposing nose tackles and defensive tackles in the run game.
Powers-Johnson shows good mobility from the center position but he played far too upright in college. That kind of stiffness gets interior lineman blown up at the pro level. He can learn how to play with a lower center of gravity but that's a transition that might take him an entire calendar year to complete. No team should wait a full 12 months for an interior lineman selected in the first round to become playable.
Selecting Powers-Johnson in Round 2 might still be an overpay. Centers selected with high picks should be immediate plug-and-play starters for the teams that draft them. Powers-Johnson needs too much coaching to justify that sort of trust. Any team that selects him before Day 3 stands a strong chance of being disappointed with his rookie production.
1. J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
Drinks will always be free for J.J. McCarthy in Ann Arbor after winning a National Title at Michigan. That success has boosted his draft stock considerably. He entered the year as a Day 3 prospect but many mocks have him squarely in the middle of Round 1 as the NFL Scouting Combine looms.
McCarthy deserves credit for operating his college offense with high efficiency but not many of those concepts project comfortably to what he'll need to accomplish in the NFL. He does have good quickness and mobility but his lack of size means he will need to pick his spots on Sundays. He's an even more profound injury risk than Daniels.
It's also unclear how McCarthy will adjust to throwing the ball from the pocket. His down the field throws were inconsistent at Michigan. He played well on the big stage but some of his repetitions against inferior competition were not as impressive. Teams taking him with the expectation that he can play meaningful snaps a a rookie may be sorely disappointed.
Unlike Daniels, McCarthy does not profile comfortably as a first-rounder. His skillset is better suited to be a backup who might develop into a starter after a season or two of pro coaching. Round 2 would be a solid landing spot for McCarthy but he's going to hear his name called on Day One barring some sort of health concern. He's the sort of quarterback prospect who can get a general manager fired by taking him too early. Quarterback-needy teams should move up to land one of the top three quarterback prospects instead of settling on McCarthy in the middle of Round 1, or earlier.