Because the Jaguars got fooled by Robinson's 2011 season, that's why. They saw a player who is yet to complete a single healthy season put up excellent numbers as a second or third wideout within a great offense and mistook it for skills that they somehow didn't notice six months earlier. The Jaguars talked themselves into thinking that Robinson is a burgeoning talent with huge upside, capable of dominating teams in the red zone and downfield for long touchdowns, and they fell for that simplest of statistical quirks: the small-sample-size fluke.
Robinson had 54 catches for 858 yards last year. Those aren't incredible numbers — roughly similar to the production of Jerricho Cotchery (57-821) or Terrell Owens (55-829) in 2009, and neither of those guys got big-money deals in free agency.
The big difference between Robinson and his peers is that 11 of his 54 catches resulted in touchdowns. That's a touchdown rate of 20.3 percent. It's totally unsustainable. Since 1990, there have been 20 other wideouts who caught 30 passes in each of two consecutive seasons and had a touchdown rate of 20 percent or greater in year one. Not even one of them improved their touchdown rate in the second year. During their second seasons, those guys caught touchdowns on 10.1 percent of their receptions. Robinson's touchdown rate is going to plummet next year, and it's not going to be because he's playing poorly. It will be because the Jaguars were expecting him to repeat something that isn't repeatable.
