percyhoward
Spectator
- Messages
- 5
- Reaction score
- 0
Much was made of the Cowboys' NFL-worst 8-of-19 performance on 3rd and 1 this season. That's a conversion rate of 42%, while the league average was 67%. On 3rd and 1 (pass or run), the play got the necessary yardage 6 of 9 times on McFadden runs, and 2 of 10 times on all other plays, half of which were passes.
Passing on 3rd and 1, Dallas had gone 30 of 48 since Romo became the starter, but was only 1 of 5 this season. Running behind this OL, McFadden, who wasn't used at all on 3rd and 1 until week 7, had a better conversion rate on his runs than Gurley, Ivory, or Gore behind their OL.
But even though the 3rd-and-1 plays got all the media attention, they only made up a small portion of the Cowboys' 50 plays in short-yardage and goal-line situations in 2015, which also include 3rd or 4th down and 1-2 yards to go, and plays from the 1-2 yard line on any down.
Conversion %
Short Yardage Only
2014
pass 13 of 18 (72%)
run 22 of 31 (71%)
2015
pass 6 of 13 (46%)
run 15 of 23 (65%)
Combined Short Yardage and Goal Line
2014
pass 15 of 24 (63%)
run 28 of 37 (76%)
2015
pass 9 of 19 (47%)
run 20 of 31 (65%)
In 2015 with Romo (partly due to game situation and OL injuries) we passed three times as much as we ran (9 passes, 3 runs) in short yardage and goal line. Without Romo, we ran almost three times as much as we passed (10 passes, 28 runs). In 2015 the average team ran the ball in short yardage 55% of the time, and no team went as high as 70% run. Without Romo this season, the Cowboys ran the ball 75% of the time in short yardage.
What that means is the running game passed the point of diminishing returns, and still we kept running. As late as week 11, Dallas ranked 6th in "power running" (short-yardage and goal-line runs), before finishing the year at 15th.
You could put some of that blame on the main back, but most of the blame goes to the lack of a passing game in 2015. McFadden was actually better converting in short yardage this year than Murray was in 2014.
Conversion %
3rd or 4th down, 1-2 yards to go
Murray (2014) 19 of 26 -- 73%
McFadden (2015) 13 of 17 -- 77%
Murray pulls ahead when you add in 1st and 2nd down runs near the goal line, where the field shrinks, and where defenses could focus on stopping the run in 2015.
All short-yardage and goal line runs
Murray (2014) 25 of 32 -- 78%
McFadden (2015) 15 of 21 -- 71%
Considering the lack of a passing threat in 2015 and the fact that Murray is the better short-yardage back, that's not a big difference at all. If you'd told me before the season that we'd drop 7% on power runs, I'd have chalked it up to losing Murray. I wouldn't have even thought it would be McFadden we were talking about, much less that he'd do it with this passing game we had.
Now compare McFadden's runs to everybody else's short-yardage and goal line plays in 2015:
McFadden 15 of 21 (71%)
rest of team 14 of 29 (48%)
Passing on 3rd and 1, Dallas had gone 30 of 48 since Romo became the starter, but was only 1 of 5 this season. Running behind this OL, McFadden, who wasn't used at all on 3rd and 1 until week 7, had a better conversion rate on his runs than Gurley, Ivory, or Gore behind their OL.
But even though the 3rd-and-1 plays got all the media attention, they only made up a small portion of the Cowboys' 50 plays in short-yardage and goal-line situations in 2015, which also include 3rd or 4th down and 1-2 yards to go, and plays from the 1-2 yard line on any down.
Conversion %
Short Yardage Only
2014
pass 13 of 18 (72%)
run 22 of 31 (71%)
2015
pass 6 of 13 (46%)
run 15 of 23 (65%)
Combined Short Yardage and Goal Line
2014
pass 15 of 24 (63%)
run 28 of 37 (76%)
2015
pass 9 of 19 (47%)
run 20 of 31 (65%)
In 2015 with Romo (partly due to game situation and OL injuries) we passed three times as much as we ran (9 passes, 3 runs) in short yardage and goal line. Without Romo, we ran almost three times as much as we passed (10 passes, 28 runs). In 2015 the average team ran the ball in short yardage 55% of the time, and no team went as high as 70% run. Without Romo this season, the Cowboys ran the ball 75% of the time in short yardage.
What that means is the running game passed the point of diminishing returns, and still we kept running. As late as week 11, Dallas ranked 6th in "power running" (short-yardage and goal-line runs), before finishing the year at 15th.
You could put some of that blame on the main back, but most of the blame goes to the lack of a passing game in 2015. McFadden was actually better converting in short yardage this year than Murray was in 2014.
Conversion %
3rd or 4th down, 1-2 yards to go
Murray (2014) 19 of 26 -- 73%
McFadden (2015) 13 of 17 -- 77%
Murray pulls ahead when you add in 1st and 2nd down runs near the goal line, where the field shrinks, and where defenses could focus on stopping the run in 2015.
All short-yardage and goal line runs
Murray (2014) 25 of 32 -- 78%
McFadden (2015) 15 of 21 -- 71%
Considering the lack of a passing threat in 2015 and the fact that Murray is the better short-yardage back, that's not a big difference at all. If you'd told me before the season that we'd drop 7% on power runs, I'd have chalked it up to losing Murray. I wouldn't have even thought it would be McFadden we were talking about, much less that he'd do it with this passing game we had.
Now compare McFadden's runs to everybody else's short-yardage and goal line plays in 2015:
McFadden 15 of 21 (71%)
rest of team 14 of 29 (48%)
