Bob Sacamano
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Have you seen Jon's girls' hands?
Day After Thoughts- ENDER
- Thread starter dbair1967
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The patron saint of my "all field goals inside a kicker's range aren't created equal" argument is Jason Garrett, who has appeared to believe in the past that Dan Bailey's leg is capable of turning 50-plus-yard field goals into chip shots. Bailey's not bad from there at all, having gone 7-for-12 from 50-plus during his career, but like any kicker, he's better from 35 than he is from 55. Garrett's clock management once he gets into that maroon zone of field goal range, though, places more emphasis on avoiding turnovers altogether than it does on creating an easier kick.
Garrett made another curious choice Sunday in what amounted to a no-man's-land situation. With the Cowboys facing fourth-and-6 on the San Diego 38-yard line in the middle of the second quarter of a tie game, he decided the best option would be to have Bailey attempt a 56-yard field goal, which the kicker pushed wide.
My initial suspicion was that Garrett had chosen the worst of three options, but let's see. The aforementioned Advanced NFL Stats calculator suggests that going for it is best. By doing that, Garrett's expected return is 0.71 points. If Garrett punts, by virtue of the expected gain in field position, he basically breaks even, with an expected return of 0.04 points. But if Garrett chooses to kick, as he actually did, the risk of great field position he would be gifting the Chargers with a miss (weighed against the possibility of making it) produces an expectation of -0.10 points; in other words, it's possible that Garrett not only made the worst choice of the three by kicking, but that he actually made a decision that would cost his team points.
Now, the Advanced NFL Stats figures are in a vacuum and don't adjust for the teams in question, but I have to figure that the personnel situation would make going for it a more obvious choice. Tony Romo's a very good mobile quarterback with two excellent healthy receivers in Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, and while the Chargers still had Dwight Freeney at that point of the game, I don't think their defense is so stout that it would make sense to doubt the numbers in terms of going for it. Bailey might be a better-than-average kicker (his 50-plus numbers are too small of a sample to say), but even if we assume that he has a better shot of making this long field goal than most, I think it's pretty clear that the correct option was to go for it, and it shouldn't have been much of a choice at all.
What do most coaches choose in this situation? As you might suspect, the most conservative choice of the three. In relatively similar situations — game within 14 points, between five and seven yards to go, ball between the opposition's 37- and 39-yard lines — teams since 1999 have punted nearly 74 percent of the time. They were twice as likely to go for it as they were to kick a field goal, though. Somehow, Garrett chose the least conventional and, quite possibly, the least optimal decision of the three available to him.
Garrett made another curious choice Sunday in what amounted to a no-man's-land situation. With the Cowboys facing fourth-and-6 on the San Diego 38-yard line in the middle of the second quarter of a tie game, he decided the best option would be to have Bailey attempt a 56-yard field goal, which the kicker pushed wide.
My initial suspicion was that Garrett had chosen the worst of three options, but let's see. The aforementioned Advanced NFL Stats calculator suggests that going for it is best. By doing that, Garrett's expected return is 0.71 points. If Garrett punts, by virtue of the expected gain in field position, he basically breaks even, with an expected return of 0.04 points. But if Garrett chooses to kick, as he actually did, the risk of great field position he would be gifting the Chargers with a miss (weighed against the possibility of making it) produces an expectation of -0.10 points; in other words, it's possible that Garrett not only made the worst choice of the three by kicking, but that he actually made a decision that would cost his team points.
Now, the Advanced NFL Stats figures are in a vacuum and don't adjust for the teams in question, but I have to figure that the personnel situation would make going for it a more obvious choice. Tony Romo's a very good mobile quarterback with two excellent healthy receivers in Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, and while the Chargers still had Dwight Freeney at that point of the game, I don't think their defense is so stout that it would make sense to doubt the numbers in terms of going for it. Bailey might be a better-than-average kicker (his 50-plus numbers are too small of a sample to say), but even if we assume that he has a better shot of making this long field goal than most, I think it's pretty clear that the correct option was to go for it, and it shouldn't have been much of a choice at all.
What do most coaches choose in this situation? As you might suspect, the most conservative choice of the three. In relatively similar situations — game within 14 points, between five and seven yards to go, ball between the opposition's 37- and 39-yard lines — teams since 1999 have punted nearly 74 percent of the time. They were twice as likely to go for it as they were to kick a field goal, though. Somehow, Garrett chose the least conventional and, quite possibly, the least optimal decision of the three available to him.
cmd34(work)
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I can't recall an NFL coach who has literally cost his team more points than Garrett has.
dbair1967
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Yeah I think that's about right.
Then the offseason came, I got stupid. I doubt it happens again though unless its really something drastic this time.
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Btw dbair I think jimmy graham is better han witten after all. Who knew.
Witten is above average at this point.
dbair1967
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ok mb
