Gil Brandt: Predicting last year's 8-8 teams

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In the NFL, the middle is a tricky place to be.

Winners are winners and losers are losers, and a record that places a team squarely in one category or the other can provide a certain amount of clarity moving forward. Teams that win as much as they lose, however, wind up in a no man's land of mediocrity.

History hasn't been especially kind to 8-8 teams. Of the 22 teams that posted .500 records from 2008 to 2012, just six improved the following season (and just three of those made the playoffs), while five teams stayed at 8-8. Half, meanwhile, did worse. And 10 of the 22 squads failed to win more than six games. Of course, that isn't to say you can't get anywhere from 8-8 -- three of the past 14 Super Bowl-winning teams had .500 records the year before (the 2009 New Orleans Saints, the 2007 New York Giants and the 2000 Baltimore Ravens).

Last season, six teams finished at 8-8: the Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers. As we look ahead to the 2014 campaign, I thought I'd attempt to predict which of these squads will improve, which will stay even and which will slip. Here's how I see things shaking out:

GOING DOWN ...


Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have epitomized mediocrity recently, finishing 8-8 for three straight seasons. I was all set to pencil them in to finally win nine -- and then linebacker Sean Lee tore his ACL during Tuesday's OTA session. Lee simply is Dallas' defense. He's such a force as both a leader and a playmaker, someone who seems to make everyone around him better. If he's out for the season, as is expected, it will be a severe blow to this team, likely costing it a win or two.

One positive for the Cowboys is that, unlike when Lee missed time last season, they have some options to replace him, starting with rookie Anthony Hitchens. Iowa's defensive MVP and leading tackler last season is an active -- if undersized -- guy. He's also a relative newcomer to the position, and it might take some time for him to learn everything he has to learn at the pro level. At least Lee's injury came early enough for Dallas to formulate a plan to account for his loss, either by doing a big job on Hitchens or by finding someone else. Perhaps the Cowboys could coax former Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher, who knows defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli's system, out of retirement.

As for the rest of the roster, new offensive play-caller Scott Linehan should help significantly, especially when it comes to running the ball more effectively. If the Cowboys had fielded a better ground attack last season, they could've won 10 games. Consider the Week 15 defeat to the Packers, in which Dallas was up by 23 at the half but lost because of an inability to run. This area of the game will be crucial when it comes to keeping the Cowboys' defense off the field. The offensive line, meanwhile, is on an upward trajectory; a unit that gave up just 35 sacks last season is getting yet another young talent in first-round pick Zack Martin, one year after the team used a first-rounder on center Travis Frederick. And while back issues typically concern me, Dallas seems to be confident quarterback Tony Romo will be able to perform after having offseason surgery. I do know he's mentally tough and will play through whatever pain he might encounter.

Predicted win total: Seven.


Rest of article
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap20...t-years-88-teams-cowboys-sliding-bears-rising
 

Hoofbite

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Why do people think Linehan likes to run?

Are they really basing their opinion of his play calling from the Daunte Culpepper days in Minnesota?
 

boozeman

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Why do people think Linehan likes to run?

Are they really basing their opinion of his play calling from the Daunte Culpepper days in Minnesota?

Pretty much. They also mistakenly think he changed philosophy when the Lions added Bush last year. He is and will always be as pass happy as Garrett.
 

boozeman

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If the Cowboys had fielded a better ground attack last season, they could've won 10 games

If they had a head coach who was smart enough to know how to protect a lead, they would have won 10 games.

It is not that the ground game was bad. The head coach was just an arrogant imbecile.
 

dbair1967

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Why do people think Linehan likes to run?

Are they really basing their opinion of his play calling from the Daunte Culpepper days in Minnesota?

Pretty sure he gave the ball a lot of Steven Jackson in St Louis when he was healthy
 

ThoughtExperiment

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Gotta admit, when I saw the thread title I thought he'd be picking us for 10-6 or better.

As for the rest of the roster, new offensive play-caller Scott Linehan should help significantly,

LOL Even old family friend Gil knows Garrett blows.
 

Hoofbite

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2006:

Rushing Attempts: 23rd (424 attempts)
Passing Attempts: 3rd

2007:
Rushing Attempts: 24th (404 attempts)
Passing Attempts: 9th


In terms of 2013, 424 would be 20th and 404 would be 24th.

Compared to 336 that Dallas had last year, that's about 1 extra rush per quarter, per game.

Of course then there's the last 5 years where nobody rushed less.

He hasn't ran the ball heavily since Minnesota.
 

GloryDaysRBack

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Lions always had a shitty Offensive line and no rb... Their run game was horrible... I dont know if he will run the ball more w us or not... But im sure their shitty line and no rb played a big part
 

Hoofbite

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Oh, of course.

The moon. The stars. And everything else that means things will be different than the last 10 years of Linehans coaching career.
 

Hoofbite

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Detroit has a shitty OL.

Probably a good reason to pass 700 times in a single season.
 

Hoofbite

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If Garrett wanted more rushing he wouldn't have to hire someone to get it. Just tell your OC, "I want to run more".

Or he could just call more running plays himself seeing how he was stepping all over Bills toes last season.
 

GloryDaysRBack

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Detroit has a shitty OL.

Probably a good reason to pass 700 times in a single season.

Are you suggesting the Lions didnt have a significantly bettet chance of moving the ball in the air than on the ground?
 

Hoofbite

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Are you suggesting the Lions didnt have a significantly bettet chance of moving the ball in the air than on the ground?

Every team accumulates more passing than rushing yards.

Having a shitty OL doesn't stop the majority of teams from running. Why? Because exposing your QB to that many pass attempts with a shitty OL is just asking for injury.

Detroit hasn't averaged less than 4 yards per rush during his time. Puts a number of teams behind them every year in terms of average, yet nobody has a lower rushing percentage than Linehan in that span.

And the question remains. Why would any HC have to hire someone just to get a more willing rushing approach?
 

GloryDaysRBack

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Accumulating more pass yards than rush yards isn't the point... There are plenty of teams who are better on the ground than through the air..

Vikings. Skins. Seahawks. Just to name a few.

Again, I'm not suggesting linehan will run more here... I also am not saying anything about having to hire a new play caller just to run the ball more.

Hell, our offensive line was a piece of shit too.. And we also were far better at passing than rushing.

Again i have no idea whether we will run more or if we wont. All im saying is detroits rush game sucked. Makes sense to me why they didn't run much... Is that a reason to pass 700 times? No probably not.. But id guess it had more to do w it than linehan not wanting to call run plays
 
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