Random Draft Thoughts

dbair1967

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Its pretty hard to do a mock draft for them. You don't know who's available or how they'll move (up or down). Here's my two cents on all positions for us:

QB- I think we'll draft one, but not in the first couple of rounds. However, if they have info that says Romo isn't doing well with his rehab or is going to be lucky to get by another year or so, then that changes. I liked Bortles more than the others but beyond the first round guys like Mettenberger and Savage would be my next in line. After them, Garoppolo and McCarron would be my next preferences. Murray I m on the fence about, but we could probably get him with a day three pick. I doubt Manziel and Bortles are around at 16, but if they are and they pick one of them its because they know Romo is about done. I totally agree with BB in that Jones wouldn't run Romo through the ringer of having a top-pick QB sitting behind him.

RB- With 11 picks, it wouldn't be a huge surprise if we used a late pick on one to compete with Dunbar and Randle, but it wouldn't be a priority for me.

FB- Kinda like RB, with 11 picks I think it wouldn't be a surprise if we used one on the position, and to me this is more of a need than RB is. My favorite is Ryan Hewitt from Stanford but Millard from OU, Prosch from Auburn, Copeland from LSU or maybe the Abram kid from FSU are all upgrades for us to. I think Millard gives you more flexibility because he could be a GL RB too, and I like the way he and Hewitt catch the ball too. Any of these guys would really help the run game, particularly the short yardage and GL run game.

WR- Really deep, talented WR group this yr and because of that I think we'd be foolish to not draft one. With so many really good ones it could mean drafting one earlier than some would probably agree with, but my thoughts are Beasley and Harris are pretty much role player slot WR guys at best. With Dez having some minor back issues and Williams promising but not 100% proven, getting a good all around WR is a smart play this yr. Maybe in the 3rd or 4th round. Guys taken here in this draft would probably equate to late first or second round guys in some other drafts.

TE- Wouldnt take one until late, and would only take that guy if he's a really quality blocker. If we get one of the really good FB's this becomes less of a need. If they don't take a FB then a 4th TE is a need IMO.

OL- Many seem to think this is the fall back for round one if they cant get the DL they want. I think Lewan might be gone before we pick, and he may have some off field stuff to worry about but getting him would be a huge upgrade to the OL and give us top shelf talent at LT, C and RT for years to come. I like Zach Martin but wouldn't take him at 16 unless they feel sure he could move to RT at some point. If he is strictly a G, I'd pass. After the first rd I like guys like Antonio Richardson, Jack Mewhort, Cam Fleming and Billy Turner. If they go with a middle to late round interior OL there's plenty to like there too. Ideally, it would be beneficial to find a G/C swing guy. With 11 picks, I'd probably look at using two on OL.

DL- No brainer #1 priority. We need major talent infusion here and I'd definitely be spending two or three, perhaps even four picks on DL's. Really hard to argue against any of the names being tossed about, all could help this team easily. We really need pass rushers in the worst way.

LB- Lee is a stud when he is healthy but every year he is hurt, and every year it hurts us when he misses time. Carter has proven he cant be counted on (and he took struggles to stay healthy). Holloman is someone I like a lot and feel pretty certain he will start for us this yr and play at a quality level. He also showed he has a lot of flexibility in that he can play any 4-3 LB spot for us. That said, we need depth and probably need a 3rd starter. If they were to get a weakside OLB starter I think Carter will be shopped around for a late rd pick. Pretty obvious this staff doesn't like him that much (and IMO its an effort issue, not a talent issue with him). Telvin Smith lacks size but the kid has blazing speed and coverage/play making ability, he seems tailor made for WOLB in this scheme. Bonus with him or Iowa's Christian Kirkey is we could probably get either with a 3rd or 4th rd pick. Shazier is a tremendous player and if we move down into the 20's he'd be a nice add. Love the Bradford kid from ASU and noticed he seems to be on our radar. He could play OLB on early downs and be a pass rush guy on 3rd downs. I'd add one LB for certain in this draft and maybe two.

CB- Wouldn't appear to be a critical need, but Carr was awful last yr and if he doesn't improve he will be gone after this season. Claiborne is in year three and has to show why he was worth trading up for, otherwise he will be gone too. Scandrick improved quite a bit IMO and is probably our best CB right now, but he will probably never be a "playmaker". Hopefully BW Webb can develop, but he was a real disappointment last yr. Drafting a CB on day three would seem to be likely IMO.

FS/SS- Church is a try hard guy who gives 100% and is ok, but he is a major liability downfield and will never be a playmaker vs the pass. Ideally suited to backup SS/nickel LB type role IMO. I think JJ Wilcox will develop into a decent starter and unlike Church he does have really good athletic ability and range. Matt Johnson is in his last chance training camp, if he doesn't stay healthy or show something he wont make the team. Would be great if he did stay healthy, because he does have size, range and playmaking skill. But I don't think they can count on any of this, so using a pick on a safety is a must.

Special teams- No need for a kicker, but I would think about perhaps using one of those 7th rd comp picks on an elite punter if one were available. Harris is a dynamite return guy, but having a plan B in case he gets hurt would be smart.

If Barr or Donald were there at 16, they are no brainer picks for us. I probably would hesitate to move up a few spots for either because we do need so much on the roster, but could understand why they would. I don't think they are moving up for the elite guys this yr, but if they believed Clowney were the next Reggie White/Bruce Smith type DE on the field, if he slipped to say 5 it might be more doable than people think. If I were running things and Barr or Donald weren't there, I'd move down.

I think ultimately we will end up moving down and selecting someone like Ealy, Jernigan or Shazier in the 20's, then either getting the DL position we didn't take in round two or three (or both if we took Shazier or Jimmie Ward in late first). OL would be the other position they might use a day one or two pick on and if so, that guy would probably start at either RT or RG. I think they'll take a QB in one of the middle rounds (3rd 4th or 5th).
 

ThoughtExperiment

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I think ultimately we will end up moving down and selecting someone like Ealy, Jernigan or Shazier in the 20's, then either getting the DL position we didn't take in round two or three (or both if we took Shazier or Jimmie Ward in late first).
I could definitely see that. I've always felt like Jerry likes to repeat his (rare) successes, and last year was seen as a success. So I could see him trying to do the same thing again in dropping down some and taking a 1-tech or DE who isn't worthy of 16.

Could also see them moving up a few spots for Donald but I really don't see exactly how he fits with just signing Melton. ACL recoveries aren't much of a question anymore.
 
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I'd rather they take Martin at 16 instead of trying to snag a guard in the mid rounds. We've proven we can't do that.

Love the idea of young, blue chip talent at three out of five ol positions.
 
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Great post dbair.
Seeing how often Jerry defies conventional wisdom during the draft (areas of great need, draft a TE) and then afterward you see that he was actually attempting some improbable goal (we can be the New England Patriots if we draft an Hispanic TE to with our tall white one) coaxed by under qualified head coaches or out of relevance advisors, there is a very good chance in my opinion that a RB could be taken in the first 3 rounds. Just a hunch, but in that vein of Jerry conceiving of distorted replications, I could see him trying to give Linehan a RB combo like he had in Detroit with Bush and Bell.

I thought the LB position was so set with Lee and Carter for many years, but you are right that LB might be a critical question mark that may drive the draft this year.

At WR, they still need deep speed. If Dallas is stuck with this offense, they maybe well get the players who flourish and force the defense to get off the LOS and cover deep. Right now most of the Dallas WRs are best suited for a WCO. If Dallas had at least one truly dynamic speed WR, the offense may have more of a chance.
 

GloryDaysRBack

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Moving up for jff. I heard our scouts have graded him higher than every qb since Elway
 
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Jon88

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Nothing is over! Nothing! You just don't turn it off! It wasn't my war! You asked me, I didn't ask you! And I did what I had to do to win! But somebody wouldn't let us win! And I come back to the world and I see all those maggots at the airport, protesting me, spitting. Calling me baby killer and all kinds of vile crap! Who are they to protest me? Who are they? Unless they've been me and been there and know what the hell they're yelling about!
 

Jon88

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I got some ocean front property in Arizona. From my front porch you can see the sea.

If you'll buy that I'll throw the golden gate in free.
 

cmd34(work)

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Tyrone Crawford ‏@TCrawford_40 1m
I love the chemistry on the Dline right now @HenMel @NickHaydenWI @BenBass79 @georgeselvie @CaesaRay95 & all r other goons #CowboysNation

Jerry sees this tweet and we wont be adding any d linemen. We're good.
 

Jon88

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In the process of looking at things we feel like, uh, that d line can be a strength in comparison to where we were at the end of last season. You have to take all things into consideration when making a decision and evaluating things, if you will, as we move forward into the future. We really like what we have in Ben Bass, Tyrone Crawford, and those other guys we just brought into the mix ~buckedtooth smile~
 

Jon88

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[video=youtube;9bhmKOU4qRQ]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bhmKOU4qRQ[/video]
 
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This thread really did well
time to defibrillate.

I have a new theory about the draft. (It's not really new, Todd McShay had the pick first. I just gave it logic).

1st Round: WR Brandin Cooks. There are only three explosive WRs in the draft in my opinion. Watkins, Beckham, and Cooks. Sure there are tall, big, smart route-runners, etc, but Dallas already has height, physical players, etc. What they don't have is a scary deep threat. Watkins, Beckham, and Cooks can flat out torch 9/10ths of the league right now which is an exclusive trait and worthy of a high pick. Don't give me Terrance Williams. He is really just a combination of not-really Patrick Crayton but better than Sam Hurd. He's a number 3 who still needs to learn to catch with his hands and hold on to the ball in traffic. Plus, 4.5/40 speed is not scaring anyone. If it's truly a passing league, then the offense needs to do two things: be able to accelerate the game and be able to slow the game to keep the other offense off the field. Having Bryant on one side and Cooks threatening deep would finally also give Jason his coveted "situation" to run the ball because the defense would be defending deep "opening up underneath to run the ball" as he says. Frankly, Dallas has the ability with. Murray to slow the game and keep the time of possession away from the other passing team in this passing league, but Jason chooses to keep sticking to his read and react system no matter what is happening in the game.

The question is....can Dallas get fairly good Defensive players in the 2nd-5th round? I think so, but there will be only one shot at getting a serious counter threat without needing to trade up, and that would be Cooks.

Take a look at this: http://secondroundstats.com

2014 Top Wide Receivers: Sammy Watkins, Brandin Cooks, and Jordan Matthews
Posted on November 6, 2013 by nugap
Wide receivers are one of my favorite positions to chart and analyze. Sure, a lot is contingent on scheme and QB play, but with enough data you can really start to get a feel for a player. Luckily, I’ve got a lot of data on the wide receivers – probably more than I can use or synthesize. With that, we’re going to take a look at some of the top wide receivers likely to declare for 2014: Sammy Watkins, Brandin Cooks, and Jordan Matthews.

These numbers are all hand charted by myself. I’ve got every one of Sammy Watkins’ games here, skipped UMass and UAB for Matthews, and missing SD State and USC for Cooks. However, each of these is still a better sample size than I had for any WR last year – so I’m pretty happy with the data. Let’s get to it.

Where did they catch the ball?

We have to start with the obvious, Matthews and Watkins’ high percentage of screens. Matthews and Watkins caught 42% and 45.5% of their total receptions behind the line of scrimmage. For reference, the average WR I charted last year caught 19% of their passes behind the LOS.

Cooks’ distribution of receptions is distributed much better. He still catches an above-average amount of balls behind the LOS, but has the same amount of receptions in the 1-5, 6-10 and 20+ yard zones. 17.4% of Cooks’ receptions were deeper than 20 yards; that compares favorably to Terrance Williams and DeAndre Hopkins last year. Meanwhile only 6% of Jordan Matthews’ receptions were deeper than 20 yards, however he caught 22% of his passes in the intermediate zone.

What did they do after they caught it?

We have a couple of interesting cases here. Most quality college wide receivers average 5.5-7 yards after the catch, depending on their offense. Tavon Austin was an extreme outlier with 8+ yards this past year. We have even larger outliers here.

Sammy Watkins, hailed as an athletic freak, averages 9.71 yards after the catch. Jordan Matthews averages slightly less at 8.5. While Cooks’ is far more average at 5.5 yards. Let’s talk about screens. I like to use screens as an indicator for athletic ability. If you can make a guy miss in the open field and gain yardage, you’re doing a good job. For reference the top tiers of last year’s receivers averaged 5.77 yards after the catch.
Watkins: 9.27 yards after the catch on screens
Matthews: 13.2 yards on screens
Cooks: 13.44 yards on screens
This is an odd situation, because Watkins and Matthews only catch the ball on average 5 yards from the LOS. How much of that comes via athletic ability and how much from scheme. Here’s an indicator, Watkins averages 10.1 yards after the catch on non-screens, which Matthews only averages 5.1 yards.

Let’s not forget about Cooks, who looks far more like a normal receiver than the others. He has caught the ball 10.36 yards down the field, comparing to his teammate Markus Wheaton last year.

What did they do to catch the ball?

A new feature this year, I recorded the last break the receivers made on their route before they caught the ball. They could run a slant and go, all that would be recorded is the go route. However, it should give you a good feel for their diversity of routes (outside of screens). Slants are included with post/corner, it was just too bulky to put in the chart.

Outside of screens, Watkins probably has the most diversity in his routes. 33% of his routes have been breaking back to the QB, but he still runs a nice amount of square routes and post/corners.

Cooks’ receptions are well distributed except for a lack of routes directly down the field. We’ve seen that he’s catch plenty of deep balls, they just all tend to be on post and corner routes.

Cooks’ overall YAC is lower, however it may be attributed to the high number of routes breaking back to the QB. These routes typically average ~2.5 yards after the catch for all WRs. Thus, when his receptions consist of 40% of these routes, it’s going to naturally limit YAC.

Matthews may be the most predictable wide receiver in all of college football. Approximately 75% of his routes are screens or post/corners/slants. Vanderbilt loves to line up Matthews in the slot and hit soft spots in the opponents’ zone on those post and corner routes.

Miscellaneous stats

We have to talk about drops. Typically a wide receiver should drop no higher than 7% of his passes. That’s about average for college wide receivers. Anything higher is a red flag to me.
Cooks: 4.17%
Watkins: 5.71%
Matthews: 10.71%
A large percentage of Cooks’ receptions come in the red zone. Nearly 25% of his receptions and 12.5% of his yardage has come near the goal line. This will also naturally limit Cooks’ YAC. Matthews and Watkins each average about 15% of receptions in the RZ and 6% of yardage.
Nearly 64% of Cooks’ total yardage has come on first down. Watkins’ receptions are extremely well distributed with 33% on each of the first three downs.
None of their QBs have missed the wide receivers at a prolific rate. Unlike Patterson, Hunter, and Wheaton who were recipients of poor QB play when targeted last year. However, Matthews has received nearly 42% of all of Vanderbilt’s passes. The highest I’ve seen among WRs.
This wide receiver group is very enigmatic. I’ve never seen two wide receivers with such high YAC or receptions as screens. It tends to make the evaluation a little wonky from a statistical standpoint. Do you attribute that high YAC to system or player? Is it different for Matthews and Watkins who have similar statistics? I tend to think it is. That’s for people to decide individually though.
 
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