Pressure breaks pipes

[Bob Sacamano]

Great back and forth. Sorry to hear that you're going blind, bbgun. Tough break.

 

[bbgun]

The Brees comparison was extremely appropriate for this season because he and Romo were the only two QBs to perform at such a high level and still miss the playoffs.

The reason why is obvious, even though you want to ignore it and talk about Dave Winfield.

In addition, Brees is one of the few QBs who has had to deal with similarly poor performing defenses in terms of QB ratings - his haven't been as low as Romo's but they've been middling. The one outlier is that in 2009 Brees' defense produced the third best DQBR in the league. What happened then? Oh, they won the super bowl.

This isn't hard to understand.

It's only a valid comparison if the Saints had an opportunity to make the playoffs in WK 17 but failed because Brees choked. He/they didn't. Brees entered the season with no coach, bounty suspensions and a porous defense. Tony entered the season with his HC patrolling the sideline and a healthy D that shut down the Giants on opening night. In short, Brees had as many or more handicaps than Romo but wasn't the main reason the Saints missed the playoffs. Cowboy fans cannot say the same about Tony.

 

[ThoughtExperiment]

It's not that Romo is perfect, he's just about last on the list of things that need fixed with this team. If you get a performance from your QB of the caliber we got from Romo this season and that NO got from Brees, you should stand a very good chance of making the playoffs.

That's it. Romo may not be perfect. He may not be as good as a Brady or Manning or Rodgers. But he's proven to be a very good NFL QB. He turned the team around and made the Pro Bowl while Jason Garrett was showing Cleo Lemon the proper process for carrying a clipboard.

Garrett on the other hand hasn't proven jack shat as a coach. Except that he can't manage a game as well as your local junior high coach.

So yeah... Garrett's more to blame.

 

[superpunk]

Let's go back to 2011. Of the top 10 rated QBs in the league, ALL made the playoffs except for Romo. The next QB on the list to miss? Phillip Rivers. Dallas and San Diego's DQBR ranking in 2011? 25th and 27th respectively. The other teams who finished 25th or lower in DQBR that season? Buffalo, Denver, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Indy and Minnesota - or as you may know them, most of the top 10 picks from last year's draft.

We can do this all day. It's fucking obvious as fuck.

 

[bbgun]

31 other teams, bro.


Zkill/Mansta rolling eyes blue star background smiley.

And 12 of them are enjoying the playoffs sans Romo. How can that be??

 

[superpunk]

It's only a valid comparison if the Saints had an opportunity to make the playoffs in WK 17 but failed because Brees choked. He/they didn't. Brees entered the season with no coach, bounty suspensions and a porous defense. Tony entered the season with his HC patrolling the sideline and a healthy D that shut down the Giants on opening night. In short, Brees had as many or more handicaps than Romo but wasn't the main reason the Saints missed the playoffs. Cowboy fans cannot say the same about Tony.

It's a valid comparison because the entire fucking season has played out and the statistical trends are obvious and undeniable. Maybe if the Saints hadn't gone 0-3 (a stretch in which Brees threw 9 INTs, including 5 in a close game against division rival Atlanta) immediately after getting back to 5-5 their week 17 game would have been meaningful. They didn't, in large part because Brees struggled, while Romo played like gangbusters for two months and had to deal with games against Washington and New Orleans where he threw for over 800 yards and 7 TDs and still lost because the defense was allowing 40 ppg.

 

[superpunk]

That's it. Romo may not be perfect. He may not be as good as a Brady or Manning or Rodgers. But he's proven to be a very good NFL QB. He turned the team around and made the Pro Bowl while Jason Garrett was showing Cleo Lemon the proper process for carrying a clipboard.

Garrett on the other hand hasn't proven jack shat as a coach. Except that he can't manage a game as well as your local junior high coach.

So yeah... Garrett's more to blame.

Whoever is in charge of getting us defensive turnovers is to blame. There is no bigger correlation to winning - if you have a high QBR as a team and allow a low QBR, you will be in the playoffs a staggering amount of the time. If you fail at either, no matter how good you are at the other, you will miss more often than not.

 

[ThoughtExperiment]

Don't disagree but I was responding to bb's claim about the Romo lovers blaming Garrett...

I suspect a lot of QBR comes from INTs, and INTs are a lot harder to come by when you only play with a lead 23% of the time.

 

[superpunk]

I am very fuzzy on this but didn't we allow opening drive scores in our first seven games or something?

 

[bbgun]

It's a valid comparison because the entire fucking season has played out and the statistical trends are obvious and undeniable. Maybe if the Saints hadn't gone 0-3 (a stretch in which Brees threw 9 INTs, including 5 in a close game against division rival Atlanta) immediately after getting back to 5-5 their week 17 game would have been meaningful. He didn't, while Romo played like gangbusters for two months and had to deal with games against Washington and New Orleans where he threw for over 800 yards and 7 TDs and still lost because the defense was allowing 40 ppg.

Yes, we've seen this before, which is why I used the word "rotisserie." So what? All those sterling numbers meant precious little at Fed-Ex Sunday night. As bad as the ravaged defense was against the run, he still had it within his means to win the game, but came down with another case of the yips. If your point is that most playoff bound QBs handle pressure better than Tony, then I couldn't agree more. There's a lot to be said for mental toughness. But let's stop pretending that Tony is merely a "victim" of his surroundings; he's part of the problem.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Yes, we've seen this before, which is why I used the word "rotisserie." So what? All those sterling numbers meant precious little at Fed-Ex Sunday night. As bad as the ravaged defense was against the run, he still had it within his means to win the game, but came down with another case of the yips. If your point is that most playoff bound QBs handle pressure better than Tony, then I couldn't agree more. There's a lot to be said for mental toughness. But let's stop pretending that Tony is merely a "victim" of his surroundings; he's part of the problem.

lol

 

[superpunk]

I like how I'm responding with facts and you're responding with dave winfield analogies and "so what?".

We were under "pressure" for two months. Tony played outstanding. Quit acting like the last game of the season is the only one we played where it was do or die and our season was on the line. To even get to that point Tony had to go god-mode. Maybe if we could have allowed less than 40 ppg against Washington and NO week 17 would have been meaningless and I wouldn't have to hear shit about Dave Winfield.

 

[ThoughtExperiment]

Also, Tony is Barry Sanders? Then we're in better shape than I thought.

 

[bbgun]

I like how I'm responding with facts and you're responding with dave winfield analogies and "so what?".

We were under "pressure" for two months. Tony played outstanding. Quit acting like the last game of the season is the only one we played where it was do or die and our season was on the line. To even get to that point Tony had to go god-mode. Maybe if we could have allowed less than 40 ppg against Washington and NO week 17 would have been meaningless and I wouldn't have to hear shit about Dave Winfield.

Apples, oranges. Those weren't win-or-go-home "play in" games with the entire nation watching in primetime. You can stop burying me in meaningless stats because I don't find them the least bit exculpatory, mainly because they don't measure intelligence or decision-making. In the words of Randy Galloway, "Watch the damn game."

 

[UVAwahoos]

"Primetime game with the entire nation watching" is Skip Bayless-esque drama queen fodder to drive ratings. It's a shame that some of the more shallow-minded. gullible fans buy into all that talk. Week 17 would have been meaningless had Romo not gone on a tear for 6-7 straight weeks prior to that point. A couple of those games were in "primetime" if I recall correctly. Week 1 on the road against the defending SB champs was also in "primetime with whole nation watching" and Romo did more than fine. It's amazing how short of an attention span fans have nowadays.

Romo's advanced stats are better than or similar to the top 4-5 playoff QBs and he absolutely DESTROYS Dalton, Flacco, and Schaub (go uva). Why do these stats count? Well, for intelligent people, they just show that Romo is a top tier QB working with a bottom tier coaching staff and a shitty defense.

 

[bbgun]

"Primetime game with the entire nation watching" is Skip Bayless-esque drama queen fodder to drive ratings. It's a shame that some of the more shallow-minded. gullible fans buy into all that talk. Week 17 would have been meaningless had Romo not gone on a tear for 6-7 straight weeks prior to that point. A couple of those games were in "primetime" if I recall correctly. Week 1 on the road against the defending SB champs was also in "primetime with whole nation watching" and Romo did more than fine. It's amazing how short of an attention span fans have nowadays.

We've already established that Tony is a fine reg season QB, but not one of those games was an elimination game where the stakes were highest.

Romo's advanced stats are better than or similar to the top 4-5 playoff QBs and he absolutely DESTROYS Dalton, Flacco, and Schaub (go uva). Why do these stats count? Well, for intelligent people, they just show that Romo is a top tier QB working with a bottom tier coaching staff and a shitty defense.

Seven years of victimhood. Poor Tony.

 

[UVAwahoos]

Don't disagree but I was responding to bb's claim about the Romo lovers blaming Garrett...

I suspect a lot of QBR comes from INTs, and INTs are a lot harder to come by when you only play with a lead 23% of the time.

Actually, there are advanced stats that adjust for shitty defenses. One interesting stat is DYAR:

Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement gives the value of the quarterback 's performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.

Romo was sixth among quarterbacks with 1,187 passing DYAR. It is our estimate that a generic replacement-level quarterback, throwing in the same situations as Romo, would have been worth 1,187 fewer yards. Note that this doesn’t mean the replacement level quarterback would have gained exactly 1,187 fewer yards. First downs, touchdowns, and turnovers all have an estimated yardage value in this system, so what we are saying is that a generic replacement-level quarterback would have fewer yards and touchdowns (and more turnovers) that would total up to be equivalent to the value of 1,344 yards.

That's just one of MANY advanced stats which rank Romo tremendously high. Can't find anything similar to excuse the defense or coaching though. As an HC, Garrett is consistently amongst the bottom tier in halftime decisions and clock management. His end of game decisions are no better, and that's without even getting into his playcalling. One thing is for certain: he appears on the red flag list of questionable decisions just as much as Jim Zorn did.

 

[superpunk]

Apples, oranges. Those weren't win-or-go-home "play in" games with the entire nation watching in primetime. You can stop burying me in meaningless stats because I don't find them the least bit exculpatory, mainly because they don't measure intelligence or decision-making. In the words of Randy Galloway, "Watch the damn game."

I watched it. You can exculpt my lily white ass.

 

[UVAwahoos]

We've already established that Tony is a fine reg season QB, but not one of those games was an elimination game where the stakes were highest.

Keep moving the goal posts.

Seven years of victimhood. Poor Tony.

Brilliant First Take analysis here.

Back on Earth, Dallas has the 26th ranked overall defensive EPA. This is far below any playoff team. Teams like Chicago and Arizona actually had a negative EPA (meaning that their defenses essentially produced more points than they gave up), and were top 5 in defense as a result. It's probably a good reason why their coaches were fired, but also why Ray Horton is getting HC interviews.

Offensively, Dallas was a mediocre 13th in EPA, but when you break it down, they're 6th in passing EPA and a dismal 27th in rushing.

It's no coincidence that they're top ten in the one important stat that Romo has direct control of on the field.

 

[peplaw06]

So if this team had been eliminated because we had lost to Cincy, Philly or Pittsburgh -- all games where Romo almost single-handedly willed this team to win -- then bbgun would be fine with Romo as QB? I mean the Washington game wouldn't have been an "elimination game."

Let's all base our QB analysis on your hand-picked 8 games, as opposed to the other 90 he's played.

Makes sense.