Machota: My ceiling for number of sacks by Dallas' D in 2016

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Machota: My ceiling for number of sacks by Dallas' D in 2016
By Jon Machota

SportsDay's Jon Machota answered questions in a chat Friday. Here are some highlights.

Question: If healthy, do you think Dez can regain his status as a top 2 or 3 receiver in the league?

Jon Machota: Yeah, I don't think anyone who is around the team has any doubts about that. If Dez is back to 100 percent, he's as talented as anyone in the league. As long as he's healthy and Romo's healthy, it's very possible that Dez could top his 2014 numbers of 1,320 yards and 16 TDs.

Question: What's your prediction for number of sacks by the Cowboys' defense this season?

Jon Machota: Well, they had 31 last year and 28 in 2014, so I'm going with about 30. Even if everything goes well, I'd put the ceiling at about 35.

Question: Seemed like the Cowboys were pretty high on Anthony Hitchens. Why not just cut bait with McClain and give Hitchens a chance?

Jon Machota: The Cowboys don't have great depth at the position. With Rolando and Hitchens they at least have some. But with that being said, I think it's time to let Rolando go.

Question: If Dallas' offense does what is expected, could a middle-of-the-pack defense get them to a Super Bowl?

Jon Machota: I don't believe so. I think the Dallas offense has to exceed expectations for them to lead a "middle-of-the-pack" defense to the Super Bowl. Now, could that happen? Sure. But you're asking for a lot of luck in the health department for that to happen.
 
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There is still this glaring variable that Dez and Romo could be completely healthy and Elliott could be getting 5 ypc and still the offense is unproductive. I think the running backs/game are going to have a double responsibility of keeping the defense off the field as well as keeping the passing game from throwing away games. Dez Bryant made a comment to ESPN Dallas that he was not mentally in each game last year. What does that really mean? Maybe he couldn't figure out why he was running plays and routes that he was so successful with in past years and last year he failed. Sure, maybe he was not motivated and played distracted or with limited effort or maybe with his high self-efficacy that he thinks if a play or route fails, it was his fault even if he executed perfectly.

If the defense and the offense both know what play is coming, the advantage goes to the defense, especially in a timing based offense, because the offense must follow the entire play while the defense can just disrupt or supersede the end portion of the play. See Luke Kuechlys second interception against Romo last year. He called out the play that he recognized, ran back to the lane and intercepted the pass to exactly where it was supposed to go. A DC who studies the Cowboy film like Capers, Haslett or the Panther DC did will easily see the patterns and it really doesn't matter whether Dez and Romo are fully healthy or not, the plays could just not work anymore.

Again, if the running game is potent, the play action should allow even predictable pass patterns some separation in the coverage. But there is a chance that team health issues was not the only reason that Dez was not a productive as previous years.
 
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There is the potential to break the record of shame for fewest sacks in a season in 2016 for the Cowboys. I have a tough time seeing them even registering 2 dozen sacks total.
 
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