Hoofbite
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Sturm has his weekly "Decoding Garrett" blog.
Pretty good stuff if you want to see how Dallas breaks down by package on offense and what they do from each package.
He hasn't put out updated totals and I'm not sure why. I thought he had a running tally but I guess not.
So I copied all the information and combined it.
Here's the long and short.
So far Dallas has 128 plays from the shotgun this season.
From under center Dallas has 112 plays.
Now I know what you are going to say, Dallas hasn't been able to run so they throw all the time and the shotgun is the only way to protect Tony. I agree and so does Garrett as evident by these numbers from all of last year.
In 2011 Dallas had 554 plays from under center.
In 2011 Dallas had 439 plays from the shotgun.
I think it's clear to see what's going on here. The lack of a running game and the lack of an OL has forced Garrett into doing something he wouldn't normally do.......pass from the shotgun almost every time they line up in it. By my calculation, Dallas has sacrificed about 9 running plays from the shotgun this season. If you go from 5% to last year's 12%, Dallas would have almost 16 attempts from the shotgun and they only would have passed 112 times.
Listen. I know 88% and 95% seem high but if you really think about how often the offense actually uses the shotgun, it's not really a huge amount. In 2011 they only used it on 439 plays out of about 1007. That's just under 40% guys. This season it is a little higher because Dallas has played catchup most of the time but it's still only at a measly 53%.
What this means is, the defense only really knows with about 90% certainty when Dallas is going to pass, just over half the time. The Cowboys in the 90s kept no secrets. Teams knew when they were running and passing almost every down. I have no official amount but fellow posters make it seem as though the number had to be at least 75%.
Garrett right now is at 95% of 53% for an outstandingly multi-phased predictability percentage of 50%. I don't think there's any other conclusion to come to other than Garrett being twice the brain of the coaches in the 90s. Think about that, the DEFENSE ONLY KNOWS 50% of the time. Shit, I could rack up points if the defense didn't have an idea what I was doing half the time and I'd do just as Garrett is doing for the other 50% in letting Callahan coach 'em up so I could simply out-execute the opponent. Know what that means, Dallas wins 100% of the time. Well, I apologize for the exaggeration. Dallas wins about 92.67% of the time because there are instances where the team makes correctable mental mistakes. Without those few occurrences, Dallas is undefeated.
Now I know some of you will point to a coin-toss outcome of being correct in assuming Dallas is passing on every down regardless of formation as some sort of coaching flaw but let me point you to these numbers before you rush to judgement and jump off the cliff like a bunch of no-good-naysayers.
7 of Dallas' 71 rushes have come from the shotgun. That means there is about 90% running from under center, just the type of stuff this OL is built for.....straight ahead run people over. No need to spread people out and try to decrease the number of defenders in the box, Dallas is gonna run it down your teeth. Jason said so himself on Hard Knocks when he said that Dallas wasn't going to make excuse like that during the upcoming season. In fact he said, AND I QUOTE, "Fuck that, we're not doing that this year".
WELL GUESS WHAT........5 years later he's still saying, "Fuck that, we're not doing that this year".
Talk about killing two bird with one stone. I just provided evidence that Garrett practices the consistency he preaches AND evidence that Garrett is not some dull, emotionless mannequin but rather a firey spark plug who keeps this team on it's toes.
Now, back to the running numbers.
Dallas' running plays come 90% of the time from under center. They run just 58% of the time when they are lined up under center.
So lets just say that the defense guessed run every time Dallas was under center. They'd be wrong about 43% of the time and when you combine that with the fact that Dallas lines up from under center 47% of the time, the defense would be wrong on a propagated total of about 20% of all of Dallas' offensive plays. Now combine that wrongness with the current 95% passing from the shotgun figures.
What this means is, if the defense simply guessed run every time Dallas was under center and guessed pass every time Dallas was in the shotgun, they'd be wrong a combined 22% of the time......give or take some rounding.
How often are they right, you might ask?
I've already stated that this brings a 50% correct guessing rate for all the plays in the game without factoring in from under center so lets factor in under center.
Add 'em up, boys. 77% of the time the defense will be right in guessing the offenses plays if they simply play the run when the team is under center and play the pass when they are in the shotgun. Again, these aren't exact figures because I didn't care to calculate out to the hundreds-thousandths place. These numbers are rounded, deal with it.
What's that I hear? A discouraging word about 77% being a high amount? Well, you obviously haven't accounted for the other half of The Process. I've already said that Callahan is worth 50% of all plays in out-executing the opponent. Coaching 'em up wins half the battle. So that leaves us with 27% of ALL PLAYS IN A GAME where the defense can correctly guess what Dallas is going to do and even have a snowball's chance in hell at doing something about it. If I were going to get my ass kicked or flat out mind-fucked 3/4ths of the time I attempted something, I'd probably just go home before the game started.
And that gentlemen..................is THE PROCESS!. Find me another coach in the league who can guarantee success 3/4ths of the time. Can't be done. He's one of kind gentlemen. All you need to do is rest easy knowing he's currently completely Phase 3 of a 19 Part process and he's getting these kind of results. 28 years from now when Phase 17 is almost complete, you'll all be grateful that such a man honored all of us by even taking a shit in the stadium this team plays in.
Pretty good stuff if you want to see how Dallas breaks down by package on offense and what they do from each package.
He hasn't put out updated totals and I'm not sure why. I thought he had a running tally but I guess not.
So I copied all the information and combined it.
Here's the long and short.
So far Dallas has 128 plays from the shotgun this season.
- Of those:
- 7 have been running plays for a whopping 5%
- 121 have been passing plays for an Ivy League Balanced 95%
From under center Dallas has 112 plays.
- Of those:
- 64 have been running plays for 57%
- 48 have been passing plays for 43%
Now I know what you are going to say, Dallas hasn't been able to run so they throw all the time and the shotgun is the only way to protect Tony. I agree and so does Garrett as evident by these numbers from all of last year.
In 2011 Dallas had 554 plays from under center.
- Of those:
- 340 were running plays equalling 61%
- 214 were passing plays equalling 39%
In 2011 Dallas had 439 plays from the shotgun.
- Of those:
- 52 were running plays equalling 12%
- 387 were passing plays equalling 88%
I think it's clear to see what's going on here. The lack of a running game and the lack of an OL has forced Garrett into doing something he wouldn't normally do.......pass from the shotgun almost every time they line up in it. By my calculation, Dallas has sacrificed about 9 running plays from the shotgun this season. If you go from 5% to last year's 12%, Dallas would have almost 16 attempts from the shotgun and they only would have passed 112 times.
Listen. I know 88% and 95% seem high but if you really think about how often the offense actually uses the shotgun, it's not really a huge amount. In 2011 they only used it on 439 plays out of about 1007. That's just under 40% guys. This season it is a little higher because Dallas has played catchup most of the time but it's still only at a measly 53%.
What this means is, the defense only really knows with about 90% certainty when Dallas is going to pass, just over half the time. The Cowboys in the 90s kept no secrets. Teams knew when they were running and passing almost every down. I have no official amount but fellow posters make it seem as though the number had to be at least 75%.
Garrett right now is at 95% of 53% for an outstandingly multi-phased predictability percentage of 50%. I don't think there's any other conclusion to come to other than Garrett being twice the brain of the coaches in the 90s. Think about that, the DEFENSE ONLY KNOWS 50% of the time. Shit, I could rack up points if the defense didn't have an idea what I was doing half the time and I'd do just as Garrett is doing for the other 50% in letting Callahan coach 'em up so I could simply out-execute the opponent. Know what that means, Dallas wins 100% of the time. Well, I apologize for the exaggeration. Dallas wins about 92.67% of the time because there are instances where the team makes correctable mental mistakes. Without those few occurrences, Dallas is undefeated.
Now I know some of you will point to a coin-toss outcome of being correct in assuming Dallas is passing on every down regardless of formation as some sort of coaching flaw but let me point you to these numbers before you rush to judgement and jump off the cliff like a bunch of no-good-naysayers.
7 of Dallas' 71 rushes have come from the shotgun. That means there is about 90% running from under center, just the type of stuff this OL is built for.....straight ahead run people over. No need to spread people out and try to decrease the number of defenders in the box, Dallas is gonna run it down your teeth. Jason said so himself on Hard Knocks when he said that Dallas wasn't going to make excuse like that during the upcoming season. In fact he said, AND I QUOTE, "Fuck that, we're not doing that this year".
WELL GUESS WHAT........5 years later he's still saying, "Fuck that, we're not doing that this year".
Talk about killing two bird with one stone. I just provided evidence that Garrett practices the consistency he preaches AND evidence that Garrett is not some dull, emotionless mannequin but rather a firey spark plug who keeps this team on it's toes.
Now, back to the running numbers.
Dallas' running plays come 90% of the time from under center. They run just 58% of the time when they are lined up under center.
So lets just say that the defense guessed run every time Dallas was under center. They'd be wrong about 43% of the time and when you combine that with the fact that Dallas lines up from under center 47% of the time, the defense would be wrong on a propagated total of about 20% of all of Dallas' offensive plays. Now combine that wrongness with the current 95% passing from the shotgun figures.
- Shotgun = 53% of plays
- 95% of shotgun = pass
- 5% of shotgun = run
- 53% Shotgun X 5% run = 2.65%
What this means is, if the defense simply guessed run every time Dallas was under center and guessed pass every time Dallas was in the shotgun, they'd be wrong a combined 22% of the time......give or take some rounding.
How often are they right, you might ask?
- Shotgun = 53% of the plays
- 95% of shotgun = pass
I've already stated that this brings a 50% correct guessing rate for all the plays in the game without factoring in from under center so lets factor in under center.
- Under center = 47% of plays
- Run = 58% of under center plays
- 47% Under Center X 58% Running = About 27%.
Add 'em up, boys. 77% of the time the defense will be right in guessing the offenses plays if they simply play the run when the team is under center and play the pass when they are in the shotgun. Again, these aren't exact figures because I didn't care to calculate out to the hundreds-thousandths place. These numbers are rounded, deal with it.
What's that I hear? A discouraging word about 77% being a high amount? Well, you obviously haven't accounted for the other half of The Process. I've already said that Callahan is worth 50% of all plays in out-executing the opponent. Coaching 'em up wins half the battle. So that leaves us with 27% of ALL PLAYS IN A GAME where the defense can correctly guess what Dallas is going to do and even have a snowball's chance in hell at doing something about it. If I were going to get my ass kicked or flat out mind-fucked 3/4ths of the time I attempted something, I'd probably just go home before the game started.
And that gentlemen..................is THE PROCESS!. Find me another coach in the league who can guarantee success 3/4ths of the time. Can't be done. He's one of kind gentlemen. All you need to do is rest easy knowing he's currently completely Phase 3 of a 19 Part process and he's getting these kind of results. 28 years from now when Phase 17 is almost complete, you'll all be grateful that such a man honored all of us by even taking a shit in the stadium this team plays in.
