JBond
UDFA
- Messages
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http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/2...-ware-break-down-or-bounce-back-in-2013.html/
When DeMarcus Ware registered 11.5 sacks in 2012—his lowest total since 2009—we heard a lot of talk about Ware’s injuries being the main culprit. Banged up for much of the season, there’s no doubt that Ware’s health affected his 2012 play. The question, however, shouldn’t be whether or not Ware was hurt, but rather whether or not pass-rushers at his age typically start to decline—whether it be from injuries or a deteriorating skill set.
So I tracked the historic production of pass-rushers in terms of approximate value—a good measure for overall value that incorporates tackles and sacks—and sorted it by age. I did the same for Ware for both his tackles and sacks. Below, the x-axis is age and the y-axis is the percentage of peak career production.
The idea was to see whether or not Ware’s progression has been typical. You can see that the average pass-rusher develops earlier than most positions, peaking at ages 25 and 26. There’s a small drop in play around age 27—to around 90 percent of peak production—and most pass-rushers can maintain that level of play until around age 32 or 33.
Ware’s career has been pretty typical; he peaked at age 26 with his 84-tackle, 20-sack season. However, over the past three years, both his tackle rate and pressure rate have dropped.
So whether due to injuries or not, Ware hasn’t been Ware since 2010. Yes, he had 19.5 sacks in 2011, but his pressure rate fell from the prior year. Based on his total 2011 pressures, he should have generated 11 sacks, meaning he “overachieved” by 8.5 sacks based on how frequently he reached the passer.
None of this means that Ware’s play will decline in 2013 from where he was in 2012. He should be healthier, and the switch to the 4-3 defense will help him. Ware is clearly still one of the league’s better pass-rushers, but history and his own development suggest that the seasons in which he approaches 20 sacks are probably behind him.
When DeMarcus Ware registered 11.5 sacks in 2012—his lowest total since 2009—we heard a lot of talk about Ware’s injuries being the main culprit. Banged up for much of the season, there’s no doubt that Ware’s health affected his 2012 play. The question, however, shouldn’t be whether or not Ware was hurt, but rather whether or not pass-rushers at his age typically start to decline—whether it be from injuries or a deteriorating skill set.
So I tracked the historic production of pass-rushers in terms of approximate value—a good measure for overall value that incorporates tackles and sacks—and sorted it by age. I did the same for Ware for both his tackles and sacks. Below, the x-axis is age and the y-axis is the percentage of peak career production.
The idea was to see whether or not Ware’s progression has been typical. You can see that the average pass-rusher develops earlier than most positions, peaking at ages 25 and 26. There’s a small drop in play around age 27—to around 90 percent of peak production—and most pass-rushers can maintain that level of play until around age 32 or 33.
Ware’s career has been pretty typical; he peaked at age 26 with his 84-tackle, 20-sack season. However, over the past three years, both his tackle rate and pressure rate have dropped.
So whether due to injuries or not, Ware hasn’t been Ware since 2010. Yes, he had 19.5 sacks in 2011, but his pressure rate fell from the prior year. Based on his total 2011 pressures, he should have generated 11 sacks, meaning he “overachieved” by 8.5 sacks based on how frequently he reached the passer.
None of this means that Ware’s play will decline in 2013 from where he was in 2012. He should be healthier, and the switch to the 4-3 defense will help him. Ware is clearly still one of the league’s better pass-rushers, but history and his own development suggest that the seasons in which he approaches 20 sacks are probably behind him.