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Rating the NFL draft prospects: Quarterbacks
Bob McGinn's Draft series
By Bob McGinn of the Journal Sentinel
The Journal Sentinel's Bob McGinn assesses the top quarterbacks in next week's draft. Included is each player's height, weight, 40-yard dash time and projected round.
1. JARED GOFF, California (6-4, 217, 4.78, 1): Third-year junior. "Extremely accurate," one scout said. "Amazing feet and pocket presence. Very similar to (Tom) Brady that way. Can make all the throws. But he has such a slight build. He needs to get stronger. And having played in that spread system he will need to take snaps under center and make adjustments." Started all 37 games of his career, compiling a 14-23 record. "He was surrounded by nothing," another scout said. "His best running back had a hip and was hurt all year, the receiver has all kind of talent and he's a nut job. The rest of them are pedestrian. He might be the most ready but I'd be nervous taking him before 10. Thing I don't like is his slender build." Finished with a passer rating of 98.9. Another Cal product, Aaron Rodgers, posted a two-year rating of 102.9 in 2003-'04. "I just don't see him having that winner quality about him," a third scout said. "His arm isn't great. They do a lot of that dink and dunk offense, a lot of that false production. He gets rattled by pressure. Everything has kind of got to be under control for him. He couldn't win there and you want him to be the face of your franchise?" From Novato, Calif. Small hands (9 inches). Scored 34 on the 50-question Wonderlic intelligence test.
2. CARSON WENTZ, North Dakota State (6-5, 237, 4.69, 1): "Prototypical," one scout said. "I see everything. Arm strength. Accuracy. Toughness. Athletic ability. Smart. Great kid." "He's a genius, Wentz is," said another scout with knowledge of Wentz's 40 on the Wonderlic. "He could be really good. He's the best runner, he's the best athlete. He is off the charts." Fifth-year senior from Bismarck, N.D., who didn't start a game until his fourth year. Finished with passer rating of 105.3. "He gets away with things in that league (Missouri Valley) that he wouldn't get away with in the SEC," a third scout said. "He tries to throw in tight windows. Even in the (FCS) title game he threw two picks. The guy he reminds me of is (Blake) Bortles. Everybody was so excited about Bortles because of the height and the athletic ability, and this guy has the same thing. At least Bortles played against big-time competition. At this point I just don't see where he's that accurate of a passer." Compared by that same scout to Ben Roethlisberger. "He's big, athletic and has a freaking cannon," a fourth scout said. "Level of competition is the only thing. I'd sit him for a year and a half, two years. Then I got a real starter. He'll be shoved into the fire too quickly and it may crush him."
3. PAXTON LYNCH, Memphis (6-6 ½, 246, 4.83, 1): Fourth-year junior. "He's the guy I like," one scout said. "He's got the poise, the vision. You can see what Memphis has done since he's been there. Guy beat Mississippi and put Memphis on the map. Good athlete. Got all the things I look for in a guy." Only other offers out of Deltona, Fla., were from Florida A&M and Bethune-Cookman. "For a tall guy he doesn't act like (Dan) McGwire or somebody," another scout said. "He can get out of trouble. He can run. He can make all the throws. Accuracy is good, not great. Just give him a minute … but Jacksonville gave (Blake) Bortles only four games." His 36-inch vertical jump tied Cardale Jones for best effort among QBs. His passer rating of 93.5 included 110.6 in '15. "You might hit the home run with Lynch but because of the mental you might strike out," a third scout said. "He has the best arm. It ain't even close. That big, tall son of a gun can run, too. He's a little spacy, a little different." Added a fourth scout: "The overall maturity level and disposition, I'd be a bit concerned. Big kid, strong arm. But he's a ways away mentally." Wonderlic of 18.
4. CONNOR COOK, Michigan State (6-4, 216, 4.79, 1-2): Three-year starter and winningest QB (34-5) in Spartans' history. "He has a great release and he improved his feet last year," one scout said. "He won a whole hell of a lot of games. What All-Americans did they have on offense this year with the exception of the left tackle (Jack Conklin), who missed about four (actually two) games? Could he fail? Yes, because I don't really know what his mental makeup is. He has talent." Broke many records set by Kirk Cousins, a three-year captain at MSU from 2009-'11 who is regarded as an all-time leader. "Let's put it this way: he's not Kirk Cousins," another scout said. "The person kills him. Selfish. He goes out too much. It's a tell-tale sign when your teammates don't like you, and I know they don't. He's good, but that position is more than physical attributes. It's also leadership. Is he going to lead your guys? I don't think so. He'll be a starter but I don't think he can lead you to the promised land." Fifth-year senior from Hinckley, Ohio. Passer rating was 95.2, Wonderlic was 25. "He stinks," a third scout said. "Wildly inaccurate (57.5% career). Average arm, average mobility, average field vision. Not a leader. Not aware. Someone will take him in the second, third or fourth round and he's going to disappoint. The owner needs to fire the GM right after they pick him if someone takes him in the first. But when the Buffalo Bills took EJ Manuel in the first, all bets are off."
5. CHRISTIAN HACKENBERG, Penn State (6-4 ½, 222, 4.81, 2-3): Passer ratings were 89.0 as a freshman under coach Bill O'Brien and, under coach James Franklin, 74.2 in '14 and 83.9 in '15. "After his freshman year people looked at him as the first pick in the draft," said one scout. "A premier-type talent like that is so hard to find. He could be as talented as any of these quarterbacks. He's got the arm, the body. He's actually a competitor. But when you look at his career you say, 'Where's the production?'" Third-year junior started all 38 games (21-17). "People can make every excuse in the book for him but he just hasn't done it," another scout said. "He was a Bill O'Brien guy and he had some issues with Franklin. He hangs out more with managers than he does teammates. It tells me he likes to be king of the little people rather than king of the big people." Tendency to hold the ball led partly to 104 career sacks. "He doesn't have a clock in his head," said a third scout. "I understand they had a poor offensive line but that's too many sacks. Throw the ball away. Do something. He has talent but he scares the hell out of me." From Palmyra, Va. Wonderlic of 24. Hands were just 9 inches.
6. DAK PRESCOTT, Mississippi State (6-2, 227, 4.78, 2-3): Billed by the Bulldogs as the most decorated player in their history. "This was not a good team but for two years they competed against the best teams," one scout said. "He was the entire team there. The guy's just a winner. He's got patience, focus, makes quick decisions, good arm strength, nice touch, stands tall in the pocket under pressure." Posted 23-10 record and had a passer rating of 99.6. Also rushed for 2,501 yards and 41 TDs. "He motivated that team, held guys accountable," another scout said. "I just don't see the vision downfield. He's a very streaky thrower. There will be a place for him in the league. I'd take him over Tim Tebow hands down." Arrested for a DUI in mid-March. Wonderlic of 25. "He's got no accuracy, got no vision," said a third scout. "I don't think he's an NFL quarterback." From Haughton, La.
7. JACOBY BRISSETT, North Carolina State (6-3 ½, 230, 4.92, 3): Transferred from Florida after two seasons, sat out 2013 and was the Wolfpack's MVP the past two years. "He has a chance to be a starter," said one scout. "I think he's better than Teddy Bridgewater. He's bigger, got a better arm and better pocket presence, and is a great kid. People will want to work with him. He's got this huge lower body. Guys just have a hard time bringing him down. He's not a speed guy but he's not a slug." Compared by another scout to Daunte Culpepper. "Strong arm with a compact motion," he said. "Just really inconsistent." Compiled a 90.9 passer rating and rushed for 12 TDs. Wonderlic of 24. "He doesn't play fast," a third scout said. "He's methodical. I don't know if he can carry a team on his back." From West Palm Beach, Fla.
8. KEVIN HOGAN, Stanford (6-3, 214, 4.74, 3-4): Posted a 36-10 record, winning three Pacific-12 Conference titles and starting in three Rose Bowls. "He's more ready than Brissett is," one scout said. "He is accurate. He does pretty much everything well. He has a funny release. Doesn't Philip Rivers have a funny release?" His passer rating was 104.2 and his record was 16-6 against AP top 25 opponents. "That (delivery) doesn't bother me," said a second scout. "Sonny Jurgensen had a really weird release. Throws it like Philip Rivers. He's cerebral, smooth." From McLean, Va. "He's your old-time pro QB," said a third scout. "Takes most of his snaps under center. He's good but not anything special." Wonderlic of 38.
9. JEFF DRISKEL, Louisiana Tech (6-4, 235, 4.49, 4): Started 21 games in four years at Florida and 13 last year at Louisiana Tech, finishing with a 24-10 record and passer rating of 88.7. "He's got all the tools in the world," one scout said. "You've just got to get over the fact he was a transfer from Florida. He's a little bit of a different kid but you want to talk about talent after the (top) three, he's the next guy. He's more talented than Cook." Easily ran the fastest 40 at the position and had the best broad jump (10-2), too. "Any elite quarterback, he'll test as well as them," said another scout. "His confidence was shot at Florida. It did take a toll on him. He's still developing but there's a huge ceiling." Has a long history of injury. Wonderlic of 29. From Oviedo, Fla.
10. CARDALE JONES, Ohio State (6-5, 250, 4.80, 4-5): Non-qualifier out of Cleveland Glenville High under coach Ted Ginn Sr., redshirted in 2012 and was third string in 2013-'14 until injuries struck. Played spectacularly in three-game stint culminated by a national title. Started eight of the first nine games in '15 before being benched for J.T. Barrett, then declared a year early. "You can't pass a talent like that," said one scout. "If you're going to bet on one, bet on a guy with all the talent if he shows you enough want-to." Passer rating of 97.2, rushed for 617 yards. "Kind of reminds me of a poor man's JaMarcus Russell," said another scout. "At least JaMarcus had some touch. This guy just throws the ball. His mechanics are all over the place." Added a third scout: "Strong arm. Big, big body. Not the brightest cookie in the world. I worry about him when he gets money in his pocket. I just don't know if it's all there mentally." Wonderlic of 25.
11. NATE SUDFELD, Indiana (6-6, 234, 4.93, 5): Three-year starter rewrote the Hoosiers' record book. "Pocket quarterback," said one scout. "Very productive this year. Average arm strength. Love to have him as a No. 3." From Modesto, Calif. Wonderlic of 28. "He did some good things when it didn't count," another scout said. "He could get drafted as high as the fifth. I don't know why the hell you'd do it." Passer rating of 98.0. Added a third scout: "Kind of a heavy-footed guy."
12. JOSH WOODRUM, Liberty (6-3, 228, 4.77, 5-6): Four-year starter with passer rating of 94.1 and Wonderlic of 32. "More sizzle than substance," said one scout. "He's got arm strength, quick release, he's athletic. But something is missing. His accuracy is inconsistent. He doesn't always play smart. He kind of thinks he's better than everything. I never feel he's in complete control of the game." From Roanoke, Va.
OTHERS: Cody Kessler, Southern California; Joel Stave, Wisconsin; Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky; Brandon Allen, Arkansas; Jake Coker, Alabama; Jake Rudock, Michigan; Trevone Boykin, Texas Christian; Dalyn Williams, Dartmouth.
***
UNSUNG HERO
Jake Coker, Alabama: Backed up EJ Manual in 2012 and Jameis Winston in '13 at Florida State, graduated early and backed up James Sims at Alabama in '14 before leading Crimson Tide to national title in '15. Passer rating of 98.7, superb size (6-5 ½, 236) and toughness. He's a prospect worth developing.
SCOUTS' NIGHTMARE
Jake Rudock, Michigan: Looks nothing like a prospect with slight build, so-so arm and slow feet. Yet, he improved so dramatically after two lethargic seasons at Iowa to a 10-win season at Wolverines that some scouts regard him as draftable.
PACKERS' PICK TO REMEMBER
Matt Hasselbeck, Boston College: Sixth-round pick in 1998. Spent rookie season on practice squad before serving as No. 2 behind Brett Favre in 1999-'00. Traded in March 2001 along with No. 17 pick to Seattle for No. 10 pick and a third-round choice. Recently retired, ranks 44th in passer rating at 82.4.
QUOTE TO NOTE
AFC personnel man, on the three leading quarterbacks: "One of them's going to be really good, one of them's going to be average and one of them's going to stink. It's a tough call. There isn't clarity."
Bob McGinn's Draft series
By Bob McGinn of the Journal Sentinel
The Journal Sentinel's Bob McGinn assesses the top quarterbacks in next week's draft. Included is each player's height, weight, 40-yard dash time and projected round.
1. JARED GOFF, California (6-4, 217, 4.78, 1): Third-year junior. "Extremely accurate," one scout said. "Amazing feet and pocket presence. Very similar to (Tom) Brady that way. Can make all the throws. But he has such a slight build. He needs to get stronger. And having played in that spread system he will need to take snaps under center and make adjustments." Started all 37 games of his career, compiling a 14-23 record. "He was surrounded by nothing," another scout said. "His best running back had a hip and was hurt all year, the receiver has all kind of talent and he's a nut job. The rest of them are pedestrian. He might be the most ready but I'd be nervous taking him before 10. Thing I don't like is his slender build." Finished with a passer rating of 98.9. Another Cal product, Aaron Rodgers, posted a two-year rating of 102.9 in 2003-'04. "I just don't see him having that winner quality about him," a third scout said. "His arm isn't great. They do a lot of that dink and dunk offense, a lot of that false production. He gets rattled by pressure. Everything has kind of got to be under control for him. He couldn't win there and you want him to be the face of your franchise?" From Novato, Calif. Small hands (9 inches). Scored 34 on the 50-question Wonderlic intelligence test.
2. CARSON WENTZ, North Dakota State (6-5, 237, 4.69, 1): "Prototypical," one scout said. "I see everything. Arm strength. Accuracy. Toughness. Athletic ability. Smart. Great kid." "He's a genius, Wentz is," said another scout with knowledge of Wentz's 40 on the Wonderlic. "He could be really good. He's the best runner, he's the best athlete. He is off the charts." Fifth-year senior from Bismarck, N.D., who didn't start a game until his fourth year. Finished with passer rating of 105.3. "He gets away with things in that league (Missouri Valley) that he wouldn't get away with in the SEC," a third scout said. "He tries to throw in tight windows. Even in the (FCS) title game he threw two picks. The guy he reminds me of is (Blake) Bortles. Everybody was so excited about Bortles because of the height and the athletic ability, and this guy has the same thing. At least Bortles played against big-time competition. At this point I just don't see where he's that accurate of a passer." Compared by that same scout to Ben Roethlisberger. "He's big, athletic and has a freaking cannon," a fourth scout said. "Level of competition is the only thing. I'd sit him for a year and a half, two years. Then I got a real starter. He'll be shoved into the fire too quickly and it may crush him."
3. PAXTON LYNCH, Memphis (6-6 ½, 246, 4.83, 1): Fourth-year junior. "He's the guy I like," one scout said. "He's got the poise, the vision. You can see what Memphis has done since he's been there. Guy beat Mississippi and put Memphis on the map. Good athlete. Got all the things I look for in a guy." Only other offers out of Deltona, Fla., were from Florida A&M and Bethune-Cookman. "For a tall guy he doesn't act like (Dan) McGwire or somebody," another scout said. "He can get out of trouble. He can run. He can make all the throws. Accuracy is good, not great. Just give him a minute … but Jacksonville gave (Blake) Bortles only four games." His 36-inch vertical jump tied Cardale Jones for best effort among QBs. His passer rating of 93.5 included 110.6 in '15. "You might hit the home run with Lynch but because of the mental you might strike out," a third scout said. "He has the best arm. It ain't even close. That big, tall son of a gun can run, too. He's a little spacy, a little different." Added a fourth scout: "The overall maturity level and disposition, I'd be a bit concerned. Big kid, strong arm. But he's a ways away mentally." Wonderlic of 18.
4. CONNOR COOK, Michigan State (6-4, 216, 4.79, 1-2): Three-year starter and winningest QB (34-5) in Spartans' history. "He has a great release and he improved his feet last year," one scout said. "He won a whole hell of a lot of games. What All-Americans did they have on offense this year with the exception of the left tackle (Jack Conklin), who missed about four (actually two) games? Could he fail? Yes, because I don't really know what his mental makeup is. He has talent." Broke many records set by Kirk Cousins, a three-year captain at MSU from 2009-'11 who is regarded as an all-time leader. "Let's put it this way: he's not Kirk Cousins," another scout said. "The person kills him. Selfish. He goes out too much. It's a tell-tale sign when your teammates don't like you, and I know they don't. He's good, but that position is more than physical attributes. It's also leadership. Is he going to lead your guys? I don't think so. He'll be a starter but I don't think he can lead you to the promised land." Fifth-year senior from Hinckley, Ohio. Passer rating was 95.2, Wonderlic was 25. "He stinks," a third scout said. "Wildly inaccurate (57.5% career). Average arm, average mobility, average field vision. Not a leader. Not aware. Someone will take him in the second, third or fourth round and he's going to disappoint. The owner needs to fire the GM right after they pick him if someone takes him in the first. But when the Buffalo Bills took EJ Manuel in the first, all bets are off."
5. CHRISTIAN HACKENBERG, Penn State (6-4 ½, 222, 4.81, 2-3): Passer ratings were 89.0 as a freshman under coach Bill O'Brien and, under coach James Franklin, 74.2 in '14 and 83.9 in '15. "After his freshman year people looked at him as the first pick in the draft," said one scout. "A premier-type talent like that is so hard to find. He could be as talented as any of these quarterbacks. He's got the arm, the body. He's actually a competitor. But when you look at his career you say, 'Where's the production?'" Third-year junior started all 38 games (21-17). "People can make every excuse in the book for him but he just hasn't done it," another scout said. "He was a Bill O'Brien guy and he had some issues with Franklin. He hangs out more with managers than he does teammates. It tells me he likes to be king of the little people rather than king of the big people." Tendency to hold the ball led partly to 104 career sacks. "He doesn't have a clock in his head," said a third scout. "I understand they had a poor offensive line but that's too many sacks. Throw the ball away. Do something. He has talent but he scares the hell out of me." From Palmyra, Va. Wonderlic of 24. Hands were just 9 inches.
6. DAK PRESCOTT, Mississippi State (6-2, 227, 4.78, 2-3): Billed by the Bulldogs as the most decorated player in their history. "This was not a good team but for two years they competed against the best teams," one scout said. "He was the entire team there. The guy's just a winner. He's got patience, focus, makes quick decisions, good arm strength, nice touch, stands tall in the pocket under pressure." Posted 23-10 record and had a passer rating of 99.6. Also rushed for 2,501 yards and 41 TDs. "He motivated that team, held guys accountable," another scout said. "I just don't see the vision downfield. He's a very streaky thrower. There will be a place for him in the league. I'd take him over Tim Tebow hands down." Arrested for a DUI in mid-March. Wonderlic of 25. "He's got no accuracy, got no vision," said a third scout. "I don't think he's an NFL quarterback." From Haughton, La.
7. JACOBY BRISSETT, North Carolina State (6-3 ½, 230, 4.92, 3): Transferred from Florida after two seasons, sat out 2013 and was the Wolfpack's MVP the past two years. "He has a chance to be a starter," said one scout. "I think he's better than Teddy Bridgewater. He's bigger, got a better arm and better pocket presence, and is a great kid. People will want to work with him. He's got this huge lower body. Guys just have a hard time bringing him down. He's not a speed guy but he's not a slug." Compared by another scout to Daunte Culpepper. "Strong arm with a compact motion," he said. "Just really inconsistent." Compiled a 90.9 passer rating and rushed for 12 TDs. Wonderlic of 24. "He doesn't play fast," a third scout said. "He's methodical. I don't know if he can carry a team on his back." From West Palm Beach, Fla.
8. KEVIN HOGAN, Stanford (6-3, 214, 4.74, 3-4): Posted a 36-10 record, winning three Pacific-12 Conference titles and starting in three Rose Bowls. "He's more ready than Brissett is," one scout said. "He is accurate. He does pretty much everything well. He has a funny release. Doesn't Philip Rivers have a funny release?" His passer rating was 104.2 and his record was 16-6 against AP top 25 opponents. "That (delivery) doesn't bother me," said a second scout. "Sonny Jurgensen had a really weird release. Throws it like Philip Rivers. He's cerebral, smooth." From McLean, Va. "He's your old-time pro QB," said a third scout. "Takes most of his snaps under center. He's good but not anything special." Wonderlic of 38.
9. JEFF DRISKEL, Louisiana Tech (6-4, 235, 4.49, 4): Started 21 games in four years at Florida and 13 last year at Louisiana Tech, finishing with a 24-10 record and passer rating of 88.7. "He's got all the tools in the world," one scout said. "You've just got to get over the fact he was a transfer from Florida. He's a little bit of a different kid but you want to talk about talent after the (top) three, he's the next guy. He's more talented than Cook." Easily ran the fastest 40 at the position and had the best broad jump (10-2), too. "Any elite quarterback, he'll test as well as them," said another scout. "His confidence was shot at Florida. It did take a toll on him. He's still developing but there's a huge ceiling." Has a long history of injury. Wonderlic of 29. From Oviedo, Fla.
10. CARDALE JONES, Ohio State (6-5, 250, 4.80, 4-5): Non-qualifier out of Cleveland Glenville High under coach Ted Ginn Sr., redshirted in 2012 and was third string in 2013-'14 until injuries struck. Played spectacularly in three-game stint culminated by a national title. Started eight of the first nine games in '15 before being benched for J.T. Barrett, then declared a year early. "You can't pass a talent like that," said one scout. "If you're going to bet on one, bet on a guy with all the talent if he shows you enough want-to." Passer rating of 97.2, rushed for 617 yards. "Kind of reminds me of a poor man's JaMarcus Russell," said another scout. "At least JaMarcus had some touch. This guy just throws the ball. His mechanics are all over the place." Added a third scout: "Strong arm. Big, big body. Not the brightest cookie in the world. I worry about him when he gets money in his pocket. I just don't know if it's all there mentally." Wonderlic of 25.
11. NATE SUDFELD, Indiana (6-6, 234, 4.93, 5): Three-year starter rewrote the Hoosiers' record book. "Pocket quarterback," said one scout. "Very productive this year. Average arm strength. Love to have him as a No. 3." From Modesto, Calif. Wonderlic of 28. "He did some good things when it didn't count," another scout said. "He could get drafted as high as the fifth. I don't know why the hell you'd do it." Passer rating of 98.0. Added a third scout: "Kind of a heavy-footed guy."
12. JOSH WOODRUM, Liberty (6-3, 228, 4.77, 5-6): Four-year starter with passer rating of 94.1 and Wonderlic of 32. "More sizzle than substance," said one scout. "He's got arm strength, quick release, he's athletic. But something is missing. His accuracy is inconsistent. He doesn't always play smart. He kind of thinks he's better than everything. I never feel he's in complete control of the game." From Roanoke, Va.
OTHERS: Cody Kessler, Southern California; Joel Stave, Wisconsin; Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky; Brandon Allen, Arkansas; Jake Coker, Alabama; Jake Rudock, Michigan; Trevone Boykin, Texas Christian; Dalyn Williams, Dartmouth.
***
UNSUNG HERO
Jake Coker, Alabama: Backed up EJ Manual in 2012 and Jameis Winston in '13 at Florida State, graduated early and backed up James Sims at Alabama in '14 before leading Crimson Tide to national title in '15. Passer rating of 98.7, superb size (6-5 ½, 236) and toughness. He's a prospect worth developing.
SCOUTS' NIGHTMARE
Jake Rudock, Michigan: Looks nothing like a prospect with slight build, so-so arm and slow feet. Yet, he improved so dramatically after two lethargic seasons at Iowa to a 10-win season at Wolverines that some scouts regard him as draftable.
PACKERS' PICK TO REMEMBER
Matt Hasselbeck, Boston College: Sixth-round pick in 1998. Spent rookie season on practice squad before serving as No. 2 behind Brett Favre in 1999-'00. Traded in March 2001 along with No. 17 pick to Seattle for No. 10 pick and a third-round choice. Recently retired, ranks 44th in passer rating at 82.4.
QUOTE TO NOTE
AFC personnel man, on the three leading quarterbacks: "One of them's going to be really good, one of them's going to be average and one of them's going to stink. It's a tough call. There isn't clarity."
