Ultimately why we won't win it all

[Midswat]

I was trying to figure out our defense. Namely, are we really that good?

Spoiler Alert: No, we're not. Why are we performing so well? Because theirs not any running backs in the NFL worth a shit anymore. Specifically none that we've played.

Ezekiel Elliott is leading the league at 1631 yards. The next closest runners are all almost 400 yards behind.

Le'Veon Bell at 1268
DeMarco Murray at 1266
Le'Sean McCoy at 1257
David Johnson at 1233
Jay Ajayi at 1213

The only back we've faced that seems to be worth a shit was Le'Veon Bell, but he only ran the ball 17 times for 57 yards. BUT... Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense hung 30 on us, and when they walked off the field with less than a minute on the clock, they had taken the lead. It took Dak-magic to win that game.

The Bears Jordan Howard has emerged as a decent back and has over 1100 yards on the year. He could qualify as the next best back we've faced. But the Bears abandoned the run, giving him only 9 carries for 45 yards.


Now here's the thing... our defense looks so much improved, including our pass rush, because we are lining up in a 3-2-6 defense. 3 lineman, 2 backers, 6 guys in the secondary. We can do this because we haven't faced any running backs that are cause for concern. Quarterbacks take the snap, there's 6+ guys in coverage and there isn't a place throw the ball.

That isn't to dismiss the recent genuine good play of David Irving. Outside of him though, its a lot of nothing. I believe our leading sacker is the rookie Collins with only 5 on the year.

The good news is, there aren't any running backs worth a damn in the NFC this year. Here are the NFC playoff teams and the leading rushers for each team for the season:

2. Atlanta Falcosn -- Devonta Freeman 983 yards
3. Seattle Seahawks -- Thomas Rawls 335 yards (Christine Michaels is leading rusher for year but was released)
4. Green Bay Packers -- Ty Montgomery 413 yards
5. New York Giants -- Reshad Jennings 541 yards
6. Washington Redskins -- Robert Kelly 671 yards
or
Detroit Lions -- Theo Reddick 357 yards.


Our formula for success has been to receive the ball, score first, have the opponent always in the trail position while playing one dimensional football (with shit run games anyways) while we keep 37 guys in coverage. The only team who should pose a threat to that would be the Atlanta Falcons, because while Freeman only has 983 yards at 4.6ypc, they also have Tevin Coleman with 456 yards at 4.3ypc)

IMO the only team who could keep us from Houston would be the Atlanta Falcons, and I think our defense would get exposed. A possible shoot out game where, on such a big stage, the rookie might make an uncharacterisitic mistake at a critical time.


Should we make it to Houston... here are the AFC runners:

1. New England Patriots, LeGarrett Blount 1110 yards
2. Oakland Raiders, Latavius Murray 777 yards
3. Pittsburgh Steelers, LeVeon Bell 1268 yards
4. Houston Texans, Lamar Miller 1073 yards
5. Miami Dolphins, Jay Ajayi 1213 yards
6. Kansas City Chiefs, Spencer Ware 921 yards


Clearly, the best teams in the AFC have more well rounded offenses, specifically primary backs, which means it'll be a lot harder to defend. Ultimately, I think the AFC wins the Super Bowl this year - against us or not. Smart money is on KC, Pittsburgh, or New England.

But in the end we don't win the Super Bowl and while Dak might throw a costly interception at a critical moment in a shoot out against Atlanta in the NFC Title Game, the fault will largely be because of our deficient defense.

 

[Doomsday]

We go into that rotating 2 or 3 man front after we're sure the opponent has abandoned the run, which all do and this is why our run defense stats look so "good." The Detroit game is a good example - the Lions abandoned the run that was gashing us, while they still had the lead!

The first team that keeps at it consistently is going to run up 200+ yards rushing on us, keep us out of the 2 and 3 man fronts, and keep Dak off the field a lot more. And very likely win the game.

 

[LAZARUS_LOGAN]

We go into that rotating 2 or 3 man front after we're sure the opponent has abandoned the run, which all do and this is why our run defense stats look so "good." The Detroit game is a good example - the Lions abandoned the run that was gashing us, while they still had the lead!

The first team that keeps at it consistently is going to run up 200+ yards rushing on us, keep us out of the 2 and 3 man fronts, and keep Dak off the field a lot more. And very likely win the game.

You're back at it again. Think you are trying from a different angle but still the same old shit.

There was something I realized I had forgotten to mention, and I was going to mention it, but it seem like I would be beating a dead horse. Fine, you provided the opening for me to present it. I went back and re-watched the game. Zenner "gashed" the Cowboys as you put it, for runs of 20 yards, 11 yards, 6 yards, 3 yards, 7 yards, -1 yards, 7 yards for a TD, and finally 5 yards for another TD.

But guess what all those runs had in common? THEY ALL CAME OUT OF RUNNING THE NO-HUDDLE.

Here are Zenner's runs that came out of a conventional offense: 2 yards, 0 yards, 3 yards, 4 yards.

Zenner had 12 carries and of those 8 were out of the no huddle. It's easy to gash a defense going no huddle early in the game, while the defense is trying to get substitutions/rotations in. But running no huddle is not feasible for an entire game; it's not sustainable.

So I guess you are half right. The Lions DID abandon the run. They abandoned the run out of the NO-HUDDLE, with Zenner. They did try it later in the second half with D. Washington, but not with as much success: 1 yard, and 2 yards.



Are we finished with this now?

 

[Doomsday]

You're back at it again. Think you are trying from a different angle but still the same old shit.

There was something I realized I had forgotten to mention, and I was going to mention it, but it seem like I would be beating a dead horse. Fine, you provided the opening for me to present it. I went back and re-watched the game. Zenner "gashed" the Cowboys as you put it, for runs of 20 yards, 11 yards, 6 yards, 3 yards, 7 yards, -1 yards, 7 yards for a TD, and finally 5 yards for another TD.

But guess what all those runs had in common? THEY ALL CAME OUT OF RUNNING THE NO-HUDDLE.

Here are Zenner's runs that came out of a conventional offense: 2 yards, 0 yards, 3 yards, 4 yards.

Zenner had 12 carries and of those 8 were out of the no huddle. It's easy to gash a defense going no huddle early in the game, while the defense is trying to get substitutions/rotations in. But running no huddle is not feasible for an entire game; it's not sustainable.

So I guess you are half right. The Lions DID abandon the run. They abandoned the run out of the NO-HUDDLE, with Zenner. They did try it later in the second half with D. Washington, but not with as much success: 1 yard, and 2 yards.



Are we finished with this now?

Pretend Detroit was the first opponent gashing us with the run, who then abandoned what was working. I always allow a man his illusions. The bottom line is NO TEAM HAS KEPT AT IT and the first one that does, beats this defense down no problem.

There's been no "different angle." This is what I have been saying for weeks. Our defensive run stats are greatly misleading. You will see when it happens. This defense is still shit and will get exposed in the playoffs.

It's okay with me that you don't agree, it should be equally okay with you.

 

[LAZARUS_LOGAN]

Pretend Detroit was the first opponent gashing us with the run, who then abandoned what was working. I always allow a man his illusions. The bottom line is NO TEAM HAS KEPT AT IT and the first one that does, beats this defense down no problem.

There's been no "different angle." This is what I have been saying for weeks. Our defensive run stats are greatly misleading. You will see when it happens. This defense is still shit and will get exposed in the playoffs.

It's okay with me that you don't agree, it should be equally okay with you.

You cannot run NO-HUDDLE for an entire game. No pretending is needed. Those gash runs came from out of the no-huddle offense. Keep it in perspective. How did their run game do, when they were not in the no-huddle? I presented the numbers already.

The NO-HUDDLE runs were working, but even those began to diminish.

 

[Dodger12]

It took Dak-magic to win that game.

Um....no, it took a facemask penalty with time winding down.

 

[Doomsday]

You cannot run NO-HUDDLE for an entire game. No pretending is needed. Those gash runs came from out of the no-huddle offense. Keep it in perspective. How did their run game do, when they were not in the no-huddle? I presented the numbers already.

The NO-HUDDLE runs were working, but even those began to diminish.

They stopped running the ball. Like at least 8 other teams we played. And they never went back to it even though with 2 and 3 man fronts, we were practically daring them. Main reason? Besides running isn't considered sexay? Our pourous pass defense proves too tempting.

When our run defense weakness gets exposed, you will see. And you can keep pretending, even then. This defense is essentially the same crap one we've had.