So you're saying there's a chance?

[Dustdevil]

Been playing with the NY Times simulator for fun and this is what pops out. Scenarios are determined using Sagarin ratings for each team and simulating the rest of the season 19,400 times. Right now, we have a 3.7% chance of making the playoffs. Past that...

Week 12: Panthers - win: 8%
Week 13: Redskins - win: 12%
Week 14: Packers - win: 34%
Week 15: Jets - win: 40%
Week 16: Bills - win: 67%
Week 17: Redskins - win: 89%

A couple of things here.
One, it is possible to win out and still not make the playoffs. Most scenarios involve us winning a weak NFC East division.

Two, say we lose on Thursday and then win out the rest of the way. Our chances drop to 40%. Therefore, it's imperative that we win that game on Thursday. After that, it's one game at a time.

Basically we have a better chance of messing up our draft position than making the playoffs at this point.

 

[Doomsday]

Interesting, right? Harvard had us at 23% last July, before camp.

Harvard bean counters give Dallas only a 23% chance of making the playoffs