sbk92

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Russ Lande
Sporting News


There is risk in drafting any college prospect. Even though NFL teams devote hundreds of man hours grinding game film and investigating players' background, even the best of general managers still miss on picks.

Here is a look at the top boom-or-bust prospects at each position in the 2011 NFL Draft:

Offense

QB Cam Newton, Auburn. He has elite physical talent to make big plays as a runner or passer. However, he must learn to play under center and learn how to read defenses while dropping back. He also has a history of off-field problems. He either will become the next Ben Roethlisberger or the next Vince Young.

RB Daniel Thomas, Kansas State. A big, strong back at 6-2, 228 pounds, Thomas consistently gains yards after contact. But if he can’t prove he has the quickness to get through the hole before it closes, he won’t ever be more than a backup.

FB Stanley Havili, Southern Cal. He is a good ballcarrier and a gifted receiver, but at 6-0 and 227 pounds he lacks ideal bulk for a fullback.

WR Jonathan Baldwin, Pitt. He is tall at 6-4 and thick at 228 pounds, and he has the leaping ability and strength to be a dominant in the red zone. But he lacks speed and isn’t always aggressive going after the ball.

TE Jordan Cameron, Southern Cal. He showed impressive route-running ability and excellent hands at the Combine, but he was primarily a backup at USC—16 career catches—and it’s always risky to draft a player who wasn’t a college starter.

OT Nate Solder, Colorado. He’s a rare athlete with long arms. However, he doesn’t play like a top-level athlete often enough and looks an awful lot like Robert Gallery when he came out of Iowa.
Success and talent can carry a player a long way, as it has with Cam Newton. But off-field problems can be a red flag for teams in the NFL draft. (AP Photo)

G John Moffitt, Wisconsin. A hard-nosed prospect, Moffitt can move opposing linemen and anchor against bull rushers. However, he is a limited athlete who lacks the quickness and speed to pull or slide well as a pass blocker.

C Rodney Hudson, Florida State. He is an excellent athlete who dominated college defensive tackles. But he played in the 280s at FSU, and though he has bulked up to 299, he might not maintain that.


Defense

DE Aldon Smith, Missouri. A quick, athletic end, Smith flashes the ability to be a dominant pass rusher. He’s inconsistent, though, off the snap and tends to play high, limiting his ability to rush the QB and play the run.

DT Phil Taylor, Baylor. He is massive at 6-3, 334 pounds, strong and athletic enough to become a dominant nose tackle. But before 2010 he had trouble keeping his weight under control, and there is concern he could revert to his old ways.

OLB Dontay Moch, Nevada. He is an elite athlete but at 6-1, 248 pounds lacks the size to play end and hasn’t proved he can be effective as a full-time linebacker.

ILB Brian Rolle, Ohio State. He flies all over the field making impact plays. At 5-10, though, he lacks the size to take on big blockers and can be eliminated from plays too easily.

CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado. Smith has an excellent combination of height at 6-2, long arms, speed and ball skills but has a long history of off-field problems.

S Quinton Carter, Oklahoma. He definitely looks the part of an NFL safety and has displayed the toughness to be a physical hitter and tackler. But his athleticism doesn’t always show up on the field.
 

dbair1967

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I dont see Moffitt as a boom or bust guy, in fact I see him as a relatively safe pick as long as its somehwere in the 3rd or 4th rd. He can play G and C. At worst I think he becomes a solid 6th OL who gives teams flexibility on game days because he can fill in at 3 OL positions.

He's been very well coached, he's physical and supposedly has a great attitude and work ethic. I like him.
 

Mr.Po

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C Rodney Hudson, Florida State. He is an excellent athlete who dominated college defensive tackles. But he played in the 280s at FSU, and though he has bulked up to 299, he might not maintain that.

The weight issue is often overrated. Sometimes being a technician at your position with quick feet accomplishes more than someone who is overweight, slow, and who can do no more than hike a ball between his legs and bump bellies. Stepnoski's weight fluctuated in the 260's during his heyday and his weight was never discussed as he was sound in his craft without being a fat body.
 

sbk92

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You have the other side of the argument too. Clay Shiver. Good, smart technician at Florida St. Simply didn't have enough strength to play in the NFL.
 
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Cr122

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WR Jonathan Baldwin, Pitt. He is tall at 6-4 and thick at 228 pounds, and he has the leaping ability and strength to be a dominant in the red zone. But he lacks speed and isn’t always aggressive going after the ball.

I'm not comparing him to Jerry Rice, but didn't they say the same thing about Rice's speed?

Scouts ripped him into not having enough speed for the NFL. You could of fooled me.
 

sbk92

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With Rice it was all about his 4.7 40 time. The 49ers and really the Cowboys too, were smart enough to see he rarely got caught from behind in a game.

He had plenty of speed. Just not track speed.
 
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Cr122

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With Rice it was all about his 4.7 40 time. The 49ers and really the Cowboys too, were smart enough to see he rarely got caught from behind in a game.

He had plenty of speed. Just not track speed.

And that's why I think Jonathan Baldwin is game fast, and isn't too slow for the NFL.
 

Bob Sacamano

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I dont see Moffitt as a boom or bust guy, in fact I see him as a relatively safe pick as long as its somehwere in the 3rd or 4th rd. He can play G and C. At worst I think he becomes a solid 6th OL who gives teams flexibility on game days because he can fill in at 3 OL positions.

He's been very well coached, he's physical and supposedly has a great attitude and work ethic. I like him.

I don't consider Moffitt a boom or bust guy either. There really is no chance for him to boom in the NFL. He's pretty limited as far as athleticism goes.
 

sbk92

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So use this thread for your risky players.

I think Mark Ingram carries some real risk. RBs are easy to find. You can make a nice living drafting them in the middle rounds. To be a first round back, you better be special. And he'll have to overcome a lack of a great burst and no real deep speed to do it.

I think he's safe as a solid player, but that's a waste of a first round pick. You can find solid backs in the 4th round every year.

The same logic applies to J.J. Watt. He has to be better than a solid, work hard, tough guy who takes cares of his assignments to be taken in the top 15 of the draft as a 3-4 end. If you're not dominating the line of scrimmage, you're not worth that high of a pick at his position. Marcus Spears does everything they say Watt will do. Spears is not worth a top 15 pick. And some have this guy firmly in the top 10.

Torrey Smith is a risk. Especially if he sneaks into the 1st round. He's a speed guy that has to learn to run routes in the NFL. He could go DeSean Jackson. He could just as easily go Troy Williamson.

And you have to have Nick Fairley on there. Even though I think he was the best overall player in college football last year, he's done it for one year. Scary shat to draft a guy at the very top of the draft off of one year. I would still do it, but I'd be very aware of the risk I'm taking.
 
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image.php


Some lucky bastard has a Clay Shiver autograph.
 

dbair1967

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You have the other side of the argument too. Clay Shiver. Good, smart technician at Florida St. Simply didn't have enough strength to play in the NFL.

He never displayed any good technique here though. He was probably too weak to begin with, but the bigger issue with him was once he got here he just wasnt any good.
 

dbair1967

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So use this thread for your risky players.

I think Mark Ingram carries some real risk. RBs are easy to find. You can make a nice living drafting them in the middle rounds. To be a first round back, you better be special. And he'll have to overcome a lack of a great burst and no real deep speed to do it.

I think he's safe as a solid player, but that's a waste of a first round pick. You can find solid backs in the 4th round every year.

The same logic applies to J.J. Watt. He has to be better than a solid, work hard, tough guy who takes cares of his assignments to be taken in the top 15 of the draft as a 3-4 end. If you're not dominating the line of scrimmage, you're not worth that high of a pick at his position. Marcus Spears does everything they say Watt will do. Spears is not worth a top 15 pick. And some have this guy firmly in the top 10.

.

I bet if the Pats, Eagles or Stealers drafted either of them in the first rd, you'd be talking about how awesome they were.
 

sbk92

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He never displayed any good technique here though. He was probably too weak to begin with, but the bigger issue with him was once he got here he just wasnt any good.

I don't agree with that. I think he just lacked strength. He couldn't anchor in the NFL. Players were too big and strong for him. Hell his body quit on him and he was out of the league in like 4 years.
 
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