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The top 32 in the NFL Draft: Beasley, Dupree barely make the cut
April 28, 2015 1:42 pm ET
I am putting off doing a proper mock draft as long as possible. It's an annual fight I wage -- understandably my editors and superiors would prefer I weigh in on these 32 picks sooner -- but much of the most trustworthy information (as much as there is this time of year) isn't readily available until deep into draft week.
So as I continue putting off the mock -- delaying my own inevitable mocking once it's posted -- I'm looking for other ways to approach the pre-draft conundrum to hone in on which players really stand the best chance of hearing their names called Thursday night. I worked closely with a top evaluator to put this list together.
And, trust me, it was anything but easy.
Some teams have as few as 14 to 16 players graded as true first-round picks, and opinions are all over the map even on who merits real consideration among the top 10. Heck, the two kids most likely to go first and second overall are two of the more polarizing players in the draft because they play the quarterback position. There are myriad questions, whether they be character or scheme fit.
This scout had 24 players who could deserve first-round grades, when accounting for character and off-field issues and not only their production, projections, metrics, health, etc. So getting to 32 took some back and forth, and it was really only possible once allowing for red-flag prospects to join the group.
Even though, however, I can tell you Vic Beasley (in many top fives) and Bud Dupree (a fast riser in many mock top 10s) were not players this evaluator believed deserved a real first-round grade and made this list after some mulling. Safe to say this list of pass rushers includes some big gambles -- especially after issues in recent years with the likes of tweeners like Barkevious Mingo and Dion Jordan. Teams vary greatly about who is legit or a potential bust because of lack of weight, strength, sufficient pass rushing moves or all of the above.
For the purposes of this exercise, I's breaking the 32 players down by position, and then, after that, put in an additional category of the players who didn't originally garner the evaluator's status as being first-round worthy, but added to reach 32. That final group includes many guys with character concerns. The players are listed in these groups in the order in which the scout believed they deserve to be.
Quarterbacks (2)
Jameis Winston (Florida State): "Based on film, he's the best quarterback in this draft, for sure. But he would scare the hell out of me off the field. I probably wouldn't take him because of that, but Tampa has kind of boxed themselves in."
Marcus Mariota (Oregon): "He's a running back as quarterback. He has to have time to develop but in the right hands he could be special. He's a great kid. He's got all the tools."
Running backs (2)
Todd Gurley (Georgia): "The ACL doesn't really scare me that much. We've seen guys come back from that stuff in college. He's an explosive runner. Without the injury he could be top 10."
Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin): The evaluator noted that Big Ten running backs -- especially bigger backs -- haven't exactly lit the world on fire in recent years, and offered mild trepidation about that, but also noted the kid ran for over seven yards per carry.
Wide Receiver (4)
Kevin White (West Virginia): "Game breaker. Could be a dominant returner too."
Amari Cooper (Alabama): "Not much not to like about him. Has it all."
DeVante Parker (Louisville): "Really uses his basketball skills. High points the ball. Great catch radius. Great speed to run after the catch."
Nelson Agholor (USC): "I really think he's pretty similar to Cooper, just a little smaller. Good route runner. Good speed."
Offensive Linemen (7)
D.J. Humphries (Florida): "A lot of people would have the kid from Iowa here, but I prefer a left tackle. This is the best left tackle in this draft."
Brandon Scherff (Iowa): "For me, he's a guard. But those guys make big money now, too. You can justify taking a guard in the top 10 now."
Cameron Erving (Florida State): "I see him as a center. He could start at tackle for a lot of teams, I'm sure, but I think he's at his best inside."
La'el Collins (LSU): "I'm giving him every shot to be my left tackle. In the back of my mind I know he can shift inside if that doesn't work out."
Andrus Peat (Stanford): "Has a bad body and I wish I saw him compete more. Definitely not a brawler. I don't really love him, but he's a left tackle. They're going to go. This one might go too high."
Ereck Flowers (Miami, Fla.): "Pure right tackle, I don't see him on the left side."
Cedric Ogbuehi (Texas A&M): "Might have been the best tackle in this draft before his injury. Probably a top 10 pick then."
Defensive Ends (2)
Mario Edwards, Jr. (Florida State): "Love this kid. Can kick inside if you need him to. Big, big part of a team that lost two games in two years."
Owamagbe Odighizuwa (UCLA): "I know everyone says they're down on him, but I don't buy it. Too much athleticism there. I see him in the first round. Looked good against some good tackles. He can be a rush end linebacker or a five-technique [lineman]."
Defensive Tackles (3)
Leonard Williams (USC): "Best player in the draft by far. Should be the No. 1 pick."
Danny Shelton (Washington): "If you want a nose, he's your guy. Reminds me of B.J. Raji when he came out."
Eddie Goldman (Florida State): "Big man who can be very versatile. Stands out in a class that doesn't have too many kids who can play like he does inside."
Outside Linebackers (3)
Dante Fowler Jr. (Florida): "He's the real deal. I don't really have any concerns with this kid at all."
Randy Gregory (Nebraska): "He is the best pass rusher in this draft. If it's not for the other issues, he's gone in the top five picks. People aren't as worried about the pot stuff, as much as it is some of decision making."
Shane Ray (Missouri): "Natural pass rusher. Knows how to get to the quarterback. He has so much passion for the game. He and Fowler are the most passionate players about football in this draft." This conversation took place before Ray's arrest for marijuana possession Monday; that obviously won't help his stock.
Cornerbacks (5)
Trae Waynes (Michigan State): "Most complete corner in this draft for me."
Kevin Johnson (Wake Forest): "Very well-rounded. I could understand if some people might like him more than Waynes. I don't. But I think it's pretty close."
Marcus Peters (Washington): "If you take out all the red flags, this is the top guy at this position. But from what we've heard about him, who he hangs out with, the problems he had with the coaches there, I wouldn't take him, but somebody in the first round will."
Byron Jones (Connecticut): "Freak athlete with good film. I think he's a very good cover corner and the worst case is you have to flip him to free safety if not."
Eric Rowe (Utah): "Little bit think, but a very solid corner. He can cover. I like this kid. Back end of the first round isn't too high to me in this draft."
At this point, we had 28 names that the evaluator was pretty comfortable with. And I threw a bunch more at him and we went back and forth before he added these final four to the group to reach 32, in this order:
LSU CB Jalen Collins: "Another kid with some off-field stuff, but I love his size. Plays tough. Would have liked to have seen more big plays."
Vic Beasley, OLB (Clemson): "You know what I think about him. One-year wonder. I don't buy him. Put on a lot of water weight but he can never play at that weight. I don't like him and I don't have a first-round grade on him, but I guess I don't have 32 players better than him, either." This evaluator mentioned Dion Jordan a few times in his comments about Beasley.
Kentucky OLB/DE Bud Dupree: "One-trick pony. I see him getting all of this attention and buzz, and I can't figure it out. I don't see it. He doesn't make enough plays for me."
Oregon DL Arik Armstead: "He gets ripped because he doesn't have sacks, but he's very raw. He improved a lot last year. You're projecting here, but at pick 32 that's what you're trying to figure out. I like him more than some other people seem to."
We'll see if all 32 make it into my mock. Most undoubtedly will, though need, trades, etc., surely will shake things up. Based on what I've heard from other evaluators, I'd have guys like Virginia outside linebacker Eli Harold, Oregon tackle Jake Fisher, Alabama safety Landon Collins and receivers Breshad Perriman (Central Florida) and Phillip Dorsett (Miami, Fla.) under strong consideration.
Another offensive lineman or receiver sneaking into that top 32 would not shock me. All things being equal I could see plenty of teams at the back end of the round going with one of those two positions.
April 28, 2015 1:42 pm ET
I am putting off doing a proper mock draft as long as possible. It's an annual fight I wage -- understandably my editors and superiors would prefer I weigh in on these 32 picks sooner -- but much of the most trustworthy information (as much as there is this time of year) isn't readily available until deep into draft week.
So as I continue putting off the mock -- delaying my own inevitable mocking once it's posted -- I'm looking for other ways to approach the pre-draft conundrum to hone in on which players really stand the best chance of hearing their names called Thursday night. I worked closely with a top evaluator to put this list together.
And, trust me, it was anything but easy.
Some teams have as few as 14 to 16 players graded as true first-round picks, and opinions are all over the map even on who merits real consideration among the top 10. Heck, the two kids most likely to go first and second overall are two of the more polarizing players in the draft because they play the quarterback position. There are myriad questions, whether they be character or scheme fit.
This scout had 24 players who could deserve first-round grades, when accounting for character and off-field issues and not only their production, projections, metrics, health, etc. So getting to 32 took some back and forth, and it was really only possible once allowing for red-flag prospects to join the group.
Even though, however, I can tell you Vic Beasley (in many top fives) and Bud Dupree (a fast riser in many mock top 10s) were not players this evaluator believed deserved a real first-round grade and made this list after some mulling. Safe to say this list of pass rushers includes some big gambles -- especially after issues in recent years with the likes of tweeners like Barkevious Mingo and Dion Jordan. Teams vary greatly about who is legit or a potential bust because of lack of weight, strength, sufficient pass rushing moves or all of the above.
For the purposes of this exercise, I's breaking the 32 players down by position, and then, after that, put in an additional category of the players who didn't originally garner the evaluator's status as being first-round worthy, but added to reach 32. That final group includes many guys with character concerns. The players are listed in these groups in the order in which the scout believed they deserve to be.
Quarterbacks (2)
Jameis Winston (Florida State): "Based on film, he's the best quarterback in this draft, for sure. But he would scare the hell out of me off the field. I probably wouldn't take him because of that, but Tampa has kind of boxed themselves in."
Marcus Mariota (Oregon): "He's a running back as quarterback. He has to have time to develop but in the right hands he could be special. He's a great kid. He's got all the tools."
Running backs (2)
Todd Gurley (Georgia): "The ACL doesn't really scare me that much. We've seen guys come back from that stuff in college. He's an explosive runner. Without the injury he could be top 10."
Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin): The evaluator noted that Big Ten running backs -- especially bigger backs -- haven't exactly lit the world on fire in recent years, and offered mild trepidation about that, but also noted the kid ran for over seven yards per carry.
Wide Receiver (4)
Kevin White (West Virginia): "Game breaker. Could be a dominant returner too."
Amari Cooper (Alabama): "Not much not to like about him. Has it all."
DeVante Parker (Louisville): "Really uses his basketball skills. High points the ball. Great catch radius. Great speed to run after the catch."
Nelson Agholor (USC): "I really think he's pretty similar to Cooper, just a little smaller. Good route runner. Good speed."
Offensive Linemen (7)
D.J. Humphries (Florida): "A lot of people would have the kid from Iowa here, but I prefer a left tackle. This is the best left tackle in this draft."
Brandon Scherff (Iowa): "For me, he's a guard. But those guys make big money now, too. You can justify taking a guard in the top 10 now."
Cameron Erving (Florida State): "I see him as a center. He could start at tackle for a lot of teams, I'm sure, but I think he's at his best inside."
La'el Collins (LSU): "I'm giving him every shot to be my left tackle. In the back of my mind I know he can shift inside if that doesn't work out."
Andrus Peat (Stanford): "Has a bad body and I wish I saw him compete more. Definitely not a brawler. I don't really love him, but he's a left tackle. They're going to go. This one might go too high."
Ereck Flowers (Miami, Fla.): "Pure right tackle, I don't see him on the left side."
Cedric Ogbuehi (Texas A&M): "Might have been the best tackle in this draft before his injury. Probably a top 10 pick then."
Defensive Ends (2)
Mario Edwards, Jr. (Florida State): "Love this kid. Can kick inside if you need him to. Big, big part of a team that lost two games in two years."
Owamagbe Odighizuwa (UCLA): "I know everyone says they're down on him, but I don't buy it. Too much athleticism there. I see him in the first round. Looked good against some good tackles. He can be a rush end linebacker or a five-technique [lineman]."
Defensive Tackles (3)
Leonard Williams (USC): "Best player in the draft by far. Should be the No. 1 pick."
Danny Shelton (Washington): "If you want a nose, he's your guy. Reminds me of B.J. Raji when he came out."
Eddie Goldman (Florida State): "Big man who can be very versatile. Stands out in a class that doesn't have too many kids who can play like he does inside."
Outside Linebackers (3)
Dante Fowler Jr. (Florida): "He's the real deal. I don't really have any concerns with this kid at all."
Randy Gregory (Nebraska): "He is the best pass rusher in this draft. If it's not for the other issues, he's gone in the top five picks. People aren't as worried about the pot stuff, as much as it is some of decision making."
Shane Ray (Missouri): "Natural pass rusher. Knows how to get to the quarterback. He has so much passion for the game. He and Fowler are the most passionate players about football in this draft." This conversation took place before Ray's arrest for marijuana possession Monday; that obviously won't help his stock.
Cornerbacks (5)
Trae Waynes (Michigan State): "Most complete corner in this draft for me."
Kevin Johnson (Wake Forest): "Very well-rounded. I could understand if some people might like him more than Waynes. I don't. But I think it's pretty close."
Marcus Peters (Washington): "If you take out all the red flags, this is the top guy at this position. But from what we've heard about him, who he hangs out with, the problems he had with the coaches there, I wouldn't take him, but somebody in the first round will."
Byron Jones (Connecticut): "Freak athlete with good film. I think he's a very good cover corner and the worst case is you have to flip him to free safety if not."
Eric Rowe (Utah): "Little bit think, but a very solid corner. He can cover. I like this kid. Back end of the first round isn't too high to me in this draft."
At this point, we had 28 names that the evaluator was pretty comfortable with. And I threw a bunch more at him and we went back and forth before he added these final four to the group to reach 32, in this order:
LSU CB Jalen Collins: "Another kid with some off-field stuff, but I love his size. Plays tough. Would have liked to have seen more big plays."
Vic Beasley, OLB (Clemson): "You know what I think about him. One-year wonder. I don't buy him. Put on a lot of water weight but he can never play at that weight. I don't like him and I don't have a first-round grade on him, but I guess I don't have 32 players better than him, either." This evaluator mentioned Dion Jordan a few times in his comments about Beasley.
Kentucky OLB/DE Bud Dupree: "One-trick pony. I see him getting all of this attention and buzz, and I can't figure it out. I don't see it. He doesn't make enough plays for me."
Oregon DL Arik Armstead: "He gets ripped because he doesn't have sacks, but he's very raw. He improved a lot last year. You're projecting here, but at pick 32 that's what you're trying to figure out. I like him more than some other people seem to."
We'll see if all 32 make it into my mock. Most undoubtedly will, though need, trades, etc., surely will shake things up. Based on what I've heard from other evaluators, I'd have guys like Virginia outside linebacker Eli Harold, Oregon tackle Jake Fisher, Alabama safety Landon Collins and receivers Breshad Perriman (Central Florida) and Phillip Dorsett (Miami, Fla.) under strong consideration.
Another offensive lineman or receiver sneaking into that top 32 would not shock me. All things being equal I could see plenty of teams at the back end of the round going with one of those two positions.
