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Speed Score doesn't favor Ingram
The Alabama running back's Speed Score could hurt his draft stock
By Bill Barnwell
Football Outsiders
Mark Ingram did not run well at this year's combine. Will he be an effective NFL back?
Although it was created to help assist in the objective evaluation of NFL prospects, the only thing the combine usually creates is confusion. With a variety of drills that have murky relationships to actual game-day activities, fans and scouts in the corner of a particular player can point to any positive performance as a sign of success. What does it mean that a defensive end had the eighth-best short shuttle time? Who cares if a tight end benched 225 pounds 25 times? Without context, they are just numbers.
So at Football Outsiders, we built in context. We've taken combine numbers and compared them to the future performance of those players to see whether they have any meaningful value in predicting success. No combine figure is ever going to be a foolproof indicator, but we have found that some drills are worth paying attention to at certain positions. And by making an adjustment to one drill -- the 40-yard dash -- for running backs, we came upon a metric that has a surprising level of relevance: Speed Score.
The concept behind Speed Score is simple: Not all 40 times are created equal. When a 225-pound player runs a 4.48 40-yard dash, it's a lot more impressive than that same 40 time from player who weighs 185. On top of that, the range of 40 times for running backs is so small (from about 4.2 seconds to 4.9 seconds) that even a miniscule difference can be valuable. Times of 4.41 and 4.51 might look like roughly similar, but in the NFL holes can close up just that quickly.
Adjust for those factors and you get the formula for Speed Score: (Weight * 200)/40 time^4. Multiplying the player's weight by 200 conveniently scales the metric so that an average Speed Score is right around 100. The average first-round pick approaches a Speed Score of 112. Since 1999, Speed Score has been able to explain about 20 percent of the variance between the DYAR and rushing yardage of NFL draft picks.
In the past, Speed Score has pointed to the future success of mid-round picks like Brandon Jacobs (123.5), pushed speedy backs like Chris Johnson (121.9) to the top of their classes and suggested disappointing careers for future busts like William Green (98.7, a terrible score for a first-round pick) and Trung Canidate (99.3). Last year, Speed Score was sour on the likely rushing production of C.J. Spiller (107.5, below average for a first-rounder) and Dexter McCluster (a gruesome 75.0), but saw potential in sixth-round pick James Starks (106.3) and undrafted free agent LeGarrette Blount (105.8).
On the other hand, Speed Score struggles with versatile backs who derive a significant amount of their pro value from their abilities as blockers and pass receivers, like Brian Westbrook (91.7) and Ray Rice (99.7). A player with a great Speed Score can also get sidetracked by injury, which felled top back Ben Tate (114.2) last year.
So with all that said, did anything exciting happen at this year's combine? Well, one unheralded back set a new Speed Score record. Does that count?
Welcome to the big time, Mario Fannin. The 231-pound Auburn back ran a 4.38 40-yard dash, producing a record Speed Score of 125.5. That narrowly beat out the previous record, held by Jacobs. Although the record is a sign of how devastating Fannin's athleticism is, it doesn't mean that teams should go rush to take him in the first round. Fannin was a backup at Auburn who struggled with injuries throughout his college career, notably a shoulder injury that produced unwanted fumbles. His pad level is too high, and he drops the occasional pass. On the other hand, he breaks plenty of tackles, he can pass-block and is versatile enough to line up in the slot. It's clear that there's some talent here, but it's the sort of talent that a good team drafts late and hopes to coach into a talented player.
On the opposite side of the draft world is Mark Ingram, who did himself no favors at the combine. Ingram's 40 time was a dismal 4.62, and at 215 pounds, that produced a Speed Score of 94.4. No back taken in the first round since 1999 -- our first year measuring Speed Score -- has had a Speed Score below 96.9, the figure produced by Broncos halfback Knowshon Moreno two years ago. And while Moreno was seen as a supremely versatile back, Ingram is being lauded primarily for his abilities as a runner. In fact, the only two backs to emerge as viable pro starters since 1999 with a Speed Score below 95.0 are Westbrook and Ahmad Bradshaw. The odds are certainly against Ingram being the third. Virginia Tech running back Ryan Williams also fits into this category, having posted a Speed Score of just 93.9.
Of course, other players besides Fannin improved their draft stock. If a team is looking for the next Starks, they might want to aim for Nebraska running back Roy Helu, who shares a similar body type and skill set while producing an impressive Speed Score of 114.8. Backs like Brandon Saine and Da'Rel Scott might not have the tape to qualify as much more than practice-squad targets, but if there's one back besides Fannin who really qualifies as a sleeper, it's Oklahoma's DeMarco Murray. Murray's 112.6 Speed Score is well above average for a player who grades out as a mid-round pick, and that's before considering the fact he's arguably the best receiving back in this class. Don't be surprised if Murray ends up as the surprise hit in this year's cast of backs.
Bill Barnwell covers the NFL for ESPN Insider. He has been the managing editor at Football Outsiders since 2008, and has also contributed articles to the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal.
The Alabama running back's Speed Score could hurt his draft stock
By Bill Barnwell
Football Outsiders
Mark Ingram did not run well at this year's combine. Will he be an effective NFL back?
Although it was created to help assist in the objective evaluation of NFL prospects, the only thing the combine usually creates is confusion. With a variety of drills that have murky relationships to actual game-day activities, fans and scouts in the corner of a particular player can point to any positive performance as a sign of success. What does it mean that a defensive end had the eighth-best short shuttle time? Who cares if a tight end benched 225 pounds 25 times? Without context, they are just numbers.
So at Football Outsiders, we built in context. We've taken combine numbers and compared them to the future performance of those players to see whether they have any meaningful value in predicting success. No combine figure is ever going to be a foolproof indicator, but we have found that some drills are worth paying attention to at certain positions. And by making an adjustment to one drill -- the 40-yard dash -- for running backs, we came upon a metric that has a surprising level of relevance: Speed Score.
The concept behind Speed Score is simple: Not all 40 times are created equal. When a 225-pound player runs a 4.48 40-yard dash, it's a lot more impressive than that same 40 time from player who weighs 185. On top of that, the range of 40 times for running backs is so small (from about 4.2 seconds to 4.9 seconds) that even a miniscule difference can be valuable. Times of 4.41 and 4.51 might look like roughly similar, but in the NFL holes can close up just that quickly.
Adjust for those factors and you get the formula for Speed Score: (Weight * 200)/40 time^4. Multiplying the player's weight by 200 conveniently scales the metric so that an average Speed Score is right around 100. The average first-round pick approaches a Speed Score of 112. Since 1999, Speed Score has been able to explain about 20 percent of the variance between the DYAR and rushing yardage of NFL draft picks.
In the past, Speed Score has pointed to the future success of mid-round picks like Brandon Jacobs (123.5), pushed speedy backs like Chris Johnson (121.9) to the top of their classes and suggested disappointing careers for future busts like William Green (98.7, a terrible score for a first-round pick) and Trung Canidate (99.3). Last year, Speed Score was sour on the likely rushing production of C.J. Spiller (107.5, below average for a first-rounder) and Dexter McCluster (a gruesome 75.0), but saw potential in sixth-round pick James Starks (106.3) and undrafted free agent LeGarrette Blount (105.8).
On the other hand, Speed Score struggles with versatile backs who derive a significant amount of their pro value from their abilities as blockers and pass receivers, like Brian Westbrook (91.7) and Ray Rice (99.7). A player with a great Speed Score can also get sidetracked by injury, which felled top back Ben Tate (114.2) last year.
So with all that said, did anything exciting happen at this year's combine? Well, one unheralded back set a new Speed Score record. Does that count?
Welcome to the big time, Mario Fannin. The 231-pound Auburn back ran a 4.38 40-yard dash, producing a record Speed Score of 125.5. That narrowly beat out the previous record, held by Jacobs. Although the record is a sign of how devastating Fannin's athleticism is, it doesn't mean that teams should go rush to take him in the first round. Fannin was a backup at Auburn who struggled with injuries throughout his college career, notably a shoulder injury that produced unwanted fumbles. His pad level is too high, and he drops the occasional pass. On the other hand, he breaks plenty of tackles, he can pass-block and is versatile enough to line up in the slot. It's clear that there's some talent here, but it's the sort of talent that a good team drafts late and hopes to coach into a talented player.
On the opposite side of the draft world is Mark Ingram, who did himself no favors at the combine. Ingram's 40 time was a dismal 4.62, and at 215 pounds, that produced a Speed Score of 94.4. No back taken in the first round since 1999 -- our first year measuring Speed Score -- has had a Speed Score below 96.9, the figure produced by Broncos halfback Knowshon Moreno two years ago. And while Moreno was seen as a supremely versatile back, Ingram is being lauded primarily for his abilities as a runner. In fact, the only two backs to emerge as viable pro starters since 1999 with a Speed Score below 95.0 are Westbrook and Ahmad Bradshaw. The odds are certainly against Ingram being the third. Virginia Tech running back Ryan Williams also fits into this category, having posted a Speed Score of just 93.9.
Of course, other players besides Fannin improved their draft stock. If a team is looking for the next Starks, they might want to aim for Nebraska running back Roy Helu, who shares a similar body type and skill set while producing an impressive Speed Score of 114.8. Backs like Brandon Saine and Da'Rel Scott might not have the tape to qualify as much more than practice-squad targets, but if there's one back besides Fannin who really qualifies as a sleeper, it's Oklahoma's DeMarco Murray. Murray's 112.6 Speed Score is well above average for a player who grades out as a mid-round pick, and that's before considering the fact he's arguably the best receiving back in this class. Don't be surprised if Murray ends up as the surprise hit in this year's cast of backs.
Bill Barnwell covers the NFL for ESPN Insider. He has been the managing editor at Football Outsiders since 2008, and has also contributed articles to the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal.