IRVING, Texas - Usually at draft time, secrets are so closely guarded at Valley Ranch that you wouldn't even bother asking someone who knows these things what the Cowboys will do when they go on the clock.
There are two reasons it's a stupid question. First off, they might not know just yet. Secondly (and most importantly), they wouldn't tell you anyway. But when a conversation hits that sort of awkward pause and you're out of real questions, you'll try anything. So you ask, and while you don't get anything concrete, you still learn something.
This is how we learned what kind of player the Cowboys will pick, based on the operative word used by someone who wasn't really trying to say anything profound.
"We'll pick someone we're comfortable with."
So while we don't know whether he's talking about Prince Amukamara or J.J. Watt or Tyron Smith or anyone in particular, we do know there are only so many interpretations of that statement. My secret decoder ring reads it this way:
The Cowboys are going to make the safest pick they can. So eliminate the guys with so-called "character" concerns, or injury worries. Eliminate the one-year wonders, the workout warriors, all the high-risk, high-reward types.
Zero in on the sure thing this time around. That's not always the idea, and in fact last year the Cowboys went for a big splash, thinking Dez Bryant might be just the guy to get them over the hump while knowing he came with a very real downside. But as Jerry Jones would say the night Bryant was selected, the risk was mitigated by where the choice was made, at pick No. 24 overall. Coming off a division title and with an eye toward the Super Bowl, that was a good spot to gamble. Even if Bryant completely tanks, which there's still no reason to expect he will, the franchise won't be hurting too badly.
But to have a big swing and miss in the top 10, that would be devastating. Think back 13 years to the last time the Cowboys were in this exact same position, when they had the famous Greg Ellis vs. Randy Moss conundrum.
After winning the NFC East in 1996, they fell on their face by going 6-10 in '97, which put them at pick No. 8 overall in the '98 draft. Sound familiar? Moss could've been exactly the shot in the arm the Cowboys' lagging offense needed. And with an offensive-minded guy taking over as head coach in Chan Gailey, the pick wouldn't have been unexpected.
However, things weren't so drastic that the Cowboys would risk a premium pick on a guy they didn't trust completely. It wasn't that they settled for Ellis, but rather that he fit what they were looking for to a tee. As was written on Friday, Ellis was the kind of guy a coach would leave his kids with, smart and of the utmost character.
What's more, he was a great bet to succeed in the NFL. Coming to the Cowboys as a mature 23-year old after five years at Chapel Hill, Ellis had 9.0 sacks as a senior, 12.5 as a junior, 7.0 as a sophomore and 4.0 when he was a redshirt freshman. That consistency made him the leading sacker in North Carolina history, ahead of even Lawrence Taylor.
Now, Ellis wouldn't turn the league on its ear or anything, and in fact it took him 10 seasons with the Cowboys before he ever reached double-digit sacks in a single season. But all along the way, his position on the defense was as secure as any. He started all but three of the 152 games he played with the Cowboys, and quickly became a leader in the locker room, a team captain and the club's NFLPA rep.
While Moss has put up gaudy stats throughout his career, the Cowboys shouldn't regret the decision they made in the first round of 1998. By showing the same philosophy later this month, we'll know once and for all that they would do the same thing again if they had the chance.
Now there are a lot of good, smart kids near the front of this year's draft who have been productive for a long time in college. It may be easier to identify the real jewels the Cowboys have identified by using the process of elimination. The rest of the teams picking in the top 10 seem to have further to go to contend for anything than the Cowboys, so they might not all be of the same mind.
Here are the risks with some of the top prospects the Cowboys will try to weed out. Auburn's Nick Fairley and Clemson's Da'Quan Bowers are both considered one-year wonders, and the word from Bowers' pro day is that some teams differ about the progress of his knee following meniscus surgery. Robert Quinn of North Carolina is coming off an NCAA suspension. USC's Tyron Smith is probably still a project, at just 20 years old.
What's left are some pretty good options, a lot of the same ones who have been tossed around since the Senior Bowl. Prince Amukamara spent four years at Nebraska, playing extremely well on the corner for the final two. Pass-rusher Von Miller posted 33 sacks in his four seasons at Texas A&M, with double-digit totals in both 2009 and 2010. Though he's coming out early, Marcell Dareus of Alabama backed up his standout '09 season with another very good campaign in 2010. And of the remaining highly-rated 3-4 end types, Wisconsin's J.J. Watt is a converted tight end, but Cal's Cameron Jordan was a starter for two-and-a-half years and played every position on the defensive line.
It's not to say the Cowboys wouldn't take a guy like Fairley if they had him rated extremely high and he fell to them, but one has to think the fact he didn't really emerge until 2010 will leave him lower on the board than a guy like Dareus.
Though the elite talent in this draft seems to thin out the closer it gets to the Cowboys' selection at No. 9, there's no reason to think they won't get a very solid-to-good player. Maybe he won't make multiple All-Pro teams, but it's very reasonable to expect a long-time starter, the kind of guy the team won't have to worry about.
That will be comforting enough.
There are two reasons it's a stupid question. First off, they might not know just yet. Secondly (and most importantly), they wouldn't tell you anyway. But when a conversation hits that sort of awkward pause and you're out of real questions, you'll try anything. So you ask, and while you don't get anything concrete, you still learn something.
This is how we learned what kind of player the Cowboys will pick, based on the operative word used by someone who wasn't really trying to say anything profound.
"We'll pick someone we're comfortable with."
So while we don't know whether he's talking about Prince Amukamara or J.J. Watt or Tyron Smith or anyone in particular, we do know there are only so many interpretations of that statement. My secret decoder ring reads it this way:
The Cowboys are going to make the safest pick they can. So eliminate the guys with so-called "character" concerns, or injury worries. Eliminate the one-year wonders, the workout warriors, all the high-risk, high-reward types.
Zero in on the sure thing this time around. That's not always the idea, and in fact last year the Cowboys went for a big splash, thinking Dez Bryant might be just the guy to get them over the hump while knowing he came with a very real downside. But as Jerry Jones would say the night Bryant was selected, the risk was mitigated by where the choice was made, at pick No. 24 overall. Coming off a division title and with an eye toward the Super Bowl, that was a good spot to gamble. Even if Bryant completely tanks, which there's still no reason to expect he will, the franchise won't be hurting too badly.
But to have a big swing and miss in the top 10, that would be devastating. Think back 13 years to the last time the Cowboys were in this exact same position, when they had the famous Greg Ellis vs. Randy Moss conundrum.
After winning the NFC East in 1996, they fell on their face by going 6-10 in '97, which put them at pick No. 8 overall in the '98 draft. Sound familiar? Moss could've been exactly the shot in the arm the Cowboys' lagging offense needed. And with an offensive-minded guy taking over as head coach in Chan Gailey, the pick wouldn't have been unexpected.
However, things weren't so drastic that the Cowboys would risk a premium pick on a guy they didn't trust completely. It wasn't that they settled for Ellis, but rather that he fit what they were looking for to a tee. As was written on Friday, Ellis was the kind of guy a coach would leave his kids with, smart and of the utmost character.
What's more, he was a great bet to succeed in the NFL. Coming to the Cowboys as a mature 23-year old after five years at Chapel Hill, Ellis had 9.0 sacks as a senior, 12.5 as a junior, 7.0 as a sophomore and 4.0 when he was a redshirt freshman. That consistency made him the leading sacker in North Carolina history, ahead of even Lawrence Taylor.
Now, Ellis wouldn't turn the league on its ear or anything, and in fact it took him 10 seasons with the Cowboys before he ever reached double-digit sacks in a single season. But all along the way, his position on the defense was as secure as any. He started all but three of the 152 games he played with the Cowboys, and quickly became a leader in the locker room, a team captain and the club's NFLPA rep.
While Moss has put up gaudy stats throughout his career, the Cowboys shouldn't regret the decision they made in the first round of 1998. By showing the same philosophy later this month, we'll know once and for all that they would do the same thing again if they had the chance.
Now there are a lot of good, smart kids near the front of this year's draft who have been productive for a long time in college. It may be easier to identify the real jewels the Cowboys have identified by using the process of elimination. The rest of the teams picking in the top 10 seem to have further to go to contend for anything than the Cowboys, so they might not all be of the same mind.
Here are the risks with some of the top prospects the Cowboys will try to weed out. Auburn's Nick Fairley and Clemson's Da'Quan Bowers are both considered one-year wonders, and the word from Bowers' pro day is that some teams differ about the progress of his knee following meniscus surgery. Robert Quinn of North Carolina is coming off an NCAA suspension. USC's Tyron Smith is probably still a project, at just 20 years old.
What's left are some pretty good options, a lot of the same ones who have been tossed around since the Senior Bowl. Prince Amukamara spent four years at Nebraska, playing extremely well on the corner for the final two. Pass-rusher Von Miller posted 33 sacks in his four seasons at Texas A&M, with double-digit totals in both 2009 and 2010. Though he's coming out early, Marcell Dareus of Alabama backed up his standout '09 season with another very good campaign in 2010. And of the remaining highly-rated 3-4 end types, Wisconsin's J.J. Watt is a converted tight end, but Cal's Cameron Jordan was a starter for two-and-a-half years and played every position on the defensive line.
It's not to say the Cowboys wouldn't take a guy like Fairley if they had him rated extremely high and he fell to them, but one has to think the fact he didn't really emerge until 2010 will leave him lower on the board than a guy like Dareus.
Though the elite talent in this draft seems to thin out the closer it gets to the Cowboys' selection at No. 9, there's no reason to think they won't get a very solid-to-good player. Maybe he won't make multiple All-Pro teams, but it's very reasonable to expect a long-time starter, the kind of guy the team won't have to worry about.
That will be comforting enough.
