Darren McFadden

[ZeroClub]

Interesting post, Statman.

Although the list includes several HOF RBs, there are also some RBs who were very good, but not great. Barry Foster, for example.

DeMarco Murray is much closer to a Barry Foster than Murray is to the HOFers on that list. No one who saw Eric Dickerson, (a young) Emmitt Smith, (a young) Walter Payton, and/or (a healthy) Earl Campbell confuses Murray with the true great RBs.

I think you are partially correct when you say: "The real question with DeMarco Murray was whether he was going to be worth the value of his next contract ...." The cost of that contract is a huge consideration, to be sure.

Another part of the equation, though, is the cost of an adequate replacement for Murray. If the cost of retaining Murray exceeds the cost of an adequate replacement, then it was perfectly o.k. to let Murray go.

Unfortunately, the absolute worst case scenario may be unfolding: The Cowboys release Murray and fail to acquire an adequate replacement.

I don't see an adequate replacement on the Cowboys current roster. There were RBs in the draft who might have been adequate, but the Cowboys didn't get one. Maybe the team trades for a guy like Lamar Miller. Who knows?

Assuming the Cowboys don't get an adequate replacement for Murray, as the Cowboys' running game falters during the regular season, some will argue that the Cowboys never should have let Murray go. I think the correct answer will be that it was perfectly o.k. to let Murray go; the critical mistake was in not finding an adequate replacement for Murray.

 

[ZeroClub]

I have made what seems to others to be a pretty bold prediction:

A rookie free agent RB will make a very significant contribution to the success of the team in the 2015 season.

It isn't too farfetched to imagine Synjyn Days becoming the team's short yardage back.

To me, Days looks too slow through the hole to be viable. There is a decent chance that Days' brief period of success at Georgia Tech has less to do with his athletic ability and more to do with Georgia Tech's version of the Spud Cason/Emory Bellard offense. But obviously the Cowboys scouts saw something they liked, so maybe.

 

[Statman]

Well, welcome to the site Statman. But I trust Carrot Top about as much as I would trust a rattler. He is a useful idiot IMO.

Your analysis re: backs and their relationship with the o-line is spot on as is your observation about attacking vs, defending if you're pass blocking all the time. A attitude develops when you're mostly run blocking, a espirit de corps that is sorely lacking in a pass-first scheme. This is why pass happy teams can't run the ball when it's sorely needed and never could.

The doubt I have is, that Carrot Top recognizes this as well. Your prediction about a UDFA rookie RB making significant contribution assumes they will continue to run the ball as frequently as last year, vs. their pattern of the last few years prior, to pass it a lot more.

I believe they will be returning to the patterns of the past, with a ostensibly healthy Romo getting 45-50 pass attempts a game or so, and the running game seeing only 20 attempts or so. This is why we didn't draft a RB, this is why they are saying we're good with the group we have. Because they simply don't intend to be run-heavy going forward.

I like Jason Garrett but if I had one major criticism about him it would be exactly what you have described.

The position of head Coach is no different than any other. if you are new to the job then there are going to be some lack of experience, there are going to be mistakes. After all, what is "being experienced"? You could describe it as someone that has been exposed to those mistakes and has learned from it.

I have got to believe that a Princeton grad and a former player recognizes his errors and corrects them. I think that exposure to the offensive assistants on his staff has also made him a better head Coach offensively. We'll see.

There is this glaring statistic that I'm sure he is aware of:

The Dallas Cowboys are 55-15 whenever Tony Romo passes less than 35 times. That's 78.6% ranking him #6 from 2006 to 2014.

The Cowboys are 20-32 whenever Tony Romo passes the ball 35 or more times, winning only 38.5%, ranking Tony Romo 19th among QB's (minimum 15 passes, minimum 25 games)

 

[Doomsday]

The Dallas Cowboys are 55-15 whenever Tony Romo passes less than 35 times. That's 78.6% ranking him #6 from 2006 to 2014.

The Cowboys are 20-32 whenever Tony Romo passes the ball 35 or more times, winning only 38.5%, ranking Tony Romo 19th among QB's (minimum 15 passes, minimum 25 games)

That's a very telling stat but I would really like to see if the rushing attempts line up with it.

As far as Garrett goes - right now there isn't any evidence he's learned jack shit from any of his mistakes. He's just been given progressively less and less to do - limiting somewhat the damage he does.

 

[ThoughtExperiment]

As far as Garrett goes - right now there isn't any evidence he's learned jack shit from any of his mistakes. He's just been given progressively less and less to do - limiting somewhat the damage he does.

 

[Statman]

That's a very telling stat but I would really like to see if the rushing attempts line up with it.

Between 2006 and 2014, with Tony Romo the QB, the Cowboys are undefeated (23-0) whenever they ran the ball 54% of the time or more.

They were 29-3 whenever they ran the ball 50% or more.

They were 44-5 whenever they ran the ball 47% of the time or more.

The Cowboys were 8-23 whenever they ran the ball less than 35%, the average margin in the 8 victories was 2.9 points, three of the victories were in overtime.

The Cowboys averaged 60.6 plays a game whenever Tony Romo was the quarterback. If the Cowboys are running the ball 47% of the time then they are passing the ball 53% of the time, an average of 32.1 passes. If they run the ball 54% of the time then they are passing 46% of the time, an average of 27.9 passes.

Therefore, you could say that the optimum number of passes for Tony Romo is between 28 and 32 passes, implying that the Cowboys would be running an average between 28 to 32 times.

Analysis:

Balance, people.......balance.

The Cowboys ran the ball 54% of the time a total of three times with Tony Romo as the QB between the three seasons 2008-2010.

The Cowboys did not run the ball 47% of the time, not once, in December of the 2007 and 2008 seasons, in which their success began to fade late in those seasons.

They did run 47% of the time or more in 3 of the last 5 games of the 2009 season, during the dramatic turnaround when they practically faced elimination from the playoffs to the undefeated Saints in game #14, and won their first playoff game in over a decade, a game in which the Cowboys ran the ball 35 times and passed 35 times.

Again, balance.

 

[Statman]

Okay, here are some "interesting category" comparisons between Murray and McFadden. They are both compared among the 42 active RB's with a career total of 500 touches (combined receptions and carries). The last number for each result are their rank among the 42:

Yards per Carry:

Murray - 4.85 - 5th
McFadden - 4.09 - 35th

Percentage of touches that are passes:

Murray - 15.4% - 18th
McFadden 16.9% - 13th

Percentage of Thrown To that were receptions:

Murray - 82.6 - 2nd
McFadden - 69.6% - 32nd

Touches per TD (lowest ranked highest):

Murray - 38.2 - 26th
McFadden: 41.7- 33rd

Percentage of games missed in career (lowest number ranked highest):

Murray - 17.2% - 20th
McFadden 25.9% - 36th

Percentage of games played that were 100 yard rushing:

Murray -35.8% - 3rd
McFadden - 15.7% - 17th

And if I were to take the average of all these rankings among the 42 active RB's and rank the average:

Murray 5th
McFadden 36th

Oh...the RB ranked #1 in combined categories?

LeSean McCoy

Ray Rice is considered active, though suspended throughout the 2014 season. He is ranked overall #4.

 

[peplaw06]

Bob Sturm ‏@SportsSturm 3 hours ago
The 50 worst RB seasons of last decade100+ runs, lowest avg) feature 42 guys once, T Richardson & K Barlow twice, and D McFadden 4 times!

 

[peplaw06]

Sturm is bagging hard on McFadden on twitter this morning.

 

[peplaw06]

Bob Sturm ‏@SportsSturm 8 minutes ago
My McFadden question: Has any player EVER averaged < 3.5 per for 3 years & 500 carries and then emerged on the other side a success?

 

[Doomsday]

Between 2006 and 2014, with Tony Romo the QB, the Cowboys are undefeated (23-0) whenever they ran the ball 54% of the time or more.

They were 29-3 whenever they ran the ball 50% or more.

They were 44-5 whenever they ran the ball 47% of the time or more.

The Cowboys were 8-23 whenever they ran the ball less than 35%, the average margin in the 8 victories was 2.9 points, three of the victories were in overtime.

The Cowboys averaged 60.6 plays a game whenever Tony Romo was the quarterback. If the Cowboys are running the ball 47% of the time then they are passing the ball 53% of the time, an average of 32.1 passes. If they run the ball 54% of the time then they are passing 46% of the time, an average of 27.9 passes.

Therefore, you could say that the optimum number of passes for Tony Romo is between 28 and 32 passes, implying that the Cowboys would be running an average between 28 to 32 times.

Analysis:

Balance, people.......balance.

The Cowboys ran the ball 54% of the time a total of three times with Tony Romo as the QB between the three seasons 2008-2010.

The Cowboys did not run the ball 47% of the time, not once, in December of the 2007 and 2008 seasons, in which their success began to fade late in those seasons.

They did run 47% of the time or more in 3 of the last 5 games of the 2009 season, during the dramatic turnaround when they practically faced elimination from the playoffs to the undefeated Saints in game #14, and won their first playoff game in over a decade, a game in which the Cowboys ran the ball 35 times and passed 35 times.

Again, balance.

How can you not understand this, if you're Carrot Top?

Great post.

 

[Dodger12]

The 3.75 yards is the floor on 20 carries. I doubt McFaddan averages that many carries, considering that there was only two* RBs : Murray and Foster, that average 20+ carries. 15 carries equals 5 ypc., let's split the differen and get 4.3 ypc. Yes behind nthis OL, I tink McFadden can average that.

We'll just have to disagree. You think that McFadden can just do something (above a 4.0 YPC) he's only done 3 times in 7 years and not at all in the last 3. I just don't. Neither do I think Randle will either. I just believe that a good OL can make a good running basck better and visa versa while some folks believe you can just plug and play any RB behind this line and he'll be successful. I'm not saying that's the basis of your argument but rather to clarify where I stand on it.

You have Costa at center, and then both Livings and Bernadeau as your starting guards... yes, you can blame the OL. Much like now you can credit the OL with Murray's success.

Statman made some posts in this thread regarding Murray's stats prior to this "elite" OL and the team stats in December, 2009 when our OL was supposedely over the hill and was used an an excuse why we couldn't/wouldn't run the ball. You're buying into a myth.

DeMarco's 2013 thousand yard season was the 2nd highest in Cowboy history for average yards per carry of 5.17. That was the season before our elite O-line given the most credit for this past season. Emmitt's 1993 Super Bowl season was ranked #1 at 5.25 yards per carry. You remember don't you? The year he sat out the first two games which the Cowboy's lost? The guy responsible for that decision was the same guy that is assuring you the running game will be better this year. You may want to adjust his credibility.

They did run 47% of the time or more in 3 of the last 5 games of the 2009 season, during the dramatic turnaround when they practically faced elimination from the playoffs to the undefeated Saints in game #14, and won their first playoff game in over a decade, a game in which the Cowboys ran the ball 35 times and passed 35 times.

The way you are carrying on, it would appear that you are hoping McFadden and Randal stinks it up, just so that you can be right. Now that's not silly, but downright foolish.

Post this gibberish over at CZ, not here. I'm not hoping anyone stinks it up. But I've seen this before when the same GM thought Derrick Lassic could run behind the "Great Wall of Dallas." I don't buy that philosophy.

And nobody is making excuses for McFadden. That's just a strawman argument that you've come up with. As I said, most people are cautiously optimistic about McFadden. He's on a better team with a better cast of characters. All we can do is wait and see.

Strawman? Interesting. I bet you'd think the same thing about Weeden then? That he can come here and turn his carreer around with a better supporting cast? Not me, he's a bum too. You can be cautiously optimistic. I'll deal with reality.

 

[Iamtdg]

So. many. words.

 

[dbair1967]

I dont have any real strong expectations for McFadden. If he does something different than he did in oakland I'll be fairly surprised.

I see him being the 3rd down RB, maybe getting 100 carries for the season and catching 20-30 passes. Anything more is just wishful thinking IMO.

I'm not even 100% convinced he'll be on the team after final cutdowns.

 

[LAZARUS_LOGAN]

I dont have any real strong expectations for McFadden. If he does something different than he did in oakland I'll be fairly surprised.

I see him being the 3rd down RB, maybe getting 100 carries for the season and catching 20-30 passes. Anything more is just wishful thinking IMO.

I'm not even 100% convinced he'll be on the team after final cutdowns.

Same here. The more I hear out of OTAs, it's Randal's job to lose.

Sturm seems real high on Randal.


Sturm: Cowboys’ Joseph Randle’s chances to start at running back: Absurd, useless stats | | Dallas Morning News


Take a look at the second video. Fredericks takes on two blockers. Then you see Smith, just uses his left arm effortlessly to keep a defender away, and how he gets downfield. All the linemen keep their feet except Leary. Leary falls right to the ground --- that chop block. I don't like that shit. You see how Smith had to avoid getting tangled and falling over Leary. If Smith was not as quick as he is and aware, he could have fallen, rolled his knee or ankle and really been messed up by his own teammate.

All in all the movement of the OL, with the exception of Leary is a thing of beauty.

If the holes are there, I see no reason why Randal cannot exploit them as Murray did.

 

[LAZARUS_LOGAN]

I dont have any real strong expectations for McFadden. If he does something different than he did in oakland I'll be fairly surprised.

I see him being the 3rd down RB, maybe getting 100 carries for the season and catching 20-30 passes. Anything more is just wishful thinking IMO.

I'm not even 100% convinced he'll be on the team after final cutdowns.

I think McFadden could and should have a role on this team preferably as a KR. With his speed and ability to move well in space, I think would make him a superior KR than what we had in Harris.

 

[ZeroClub]

I would mind seeing Claiborne return kickoffs. He did it well at LSU. I'm not sure he has much else to offer the Cowboys at this stage. As a CB he's been mediocre.