Dallas Cowboys
Expected wins: 8.3
Playoff probability: 39 percent (29 percent to win the NFC East)
Super Bowl win probability: 3 percent
Over the past eight seasons, only four NFL teams5 have gotten better passing efficiency (as measured by the adjusted net yards per attempt index, or ANY/A+) from their primary quarterbacks6 than the Dallas Cowboys. Since 2006, the average number of wins per season for the teams surrounding them on that list7 was 10.1. In the same period, though, the Cowboys have won just nine games per season. In fact, few teams have ever received such premium passing but won as infrequently as the Tony Romo-era Cowboys.8
For Dallas, the culprits are varied. The Cowboys’ defense has generally been inadequate, particularly since Jason Garrett succeeded Wade Phillips as head coach (the defense has allowed the fifth-most points and the highest ANY/A in the league since 2010). Injuries to Romo9 have forced Jon Kitna, Brad Johnson, Kyle Orton and Stephen McGee to make emergency starts under center.10 The effectiveness and health of the team’s ball-carriers have been wildly inconsistent from season to season.11 And Dallas’s special teams have usually been mediocre as well.
Whatever the reason, the Cowboys are currently staring at the prospect of another season spent with successful passing, but a modest win-loss record. (Las Vegas’s preseason over/under win totals have Dallas winning between seven and eight games in 2014.) And that’s if they’re lucky — according to Football Outsiders’ KUBIAK forecast system, the 34-year-old Romo projects for a career-worst12 passing year this season.
