WhyElliott Is One Of The Most Touted Rookie Running Backs In Fantasy Football

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Why Ezekiel Elliott Is One Of The Most Touted Rookie Running Backs In Fantasy Football History
by Kevin Luo 17 July 2016, 10:35 AM

We’re in the middle of the dog days of summer on the sports calendar. There were multiple days last week with no sporting events, unless you count the Pokemon Go phenomena. On the plus side, this means we’re inching closer and closer to football season and (more importantly) fantasy football season.

As you’re doing your fantasy draft research in the upcoming weeks, you’ll notice a new name towards the top of draft boards. This new name is Ezekiel Elliott, the All-American running back from Ohio State and the fourth overall pick by the Dallas Cowboys in the most recent draft. Zeke is projected to go in the first or second round of most fantasy drafts this upcoming season.

He’s one of the most highly touted rookie running backs in recent fantasy football history, and he deserves every bit of the hype (as a fantasy prospect, at least). During the actual draft process a few months ago, Zeke was considered one of the most complete backs to come into the league in years. His combination of size, athleticism, and natural running talent helped him put up massive numbers at Ohio State and led to the Cowboys taking him so high in the draft.

Plays like these where Elliott hurdles defenders or leaves them in the dust have both scouts and fans drooling at the thought of what he might be able to do in the NFL.

However, there have been many highly touted rookie running backs in the past whom fantasy football players have drafted early (most notably Trent Richardson in 2012 and Ryan Mathews in 2010).

So what sets Ezekiel Elliott apart from these other highly touted fantasy rookies? All of them had amazing college careers, and all of them were expected to be impact players in the NFL right away, but Elliott’s situation in Dallas is perfect for him to have success at the next level. Any fantasy owner knows that a player’s situation is sometimes just as important to his fantasy success as his pure talent.

The Cowboys Line
When interviewed before the draft, Elliott said that he wanted to play for the Dallas Cowboys, and he got his wish. If you were a running back in this most recent draft, why would you not want to get drafted by the Cowboys?

The reason that the Cowboys are a football nirvana for NFL running backs is because you’ll get to run behind that incredible offensive line. Coming into this season, they were ranked as the number one offensive line in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. This incredible line features three 2016 Pro Bowlers (Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, and Travis Frederick) and two other very solid linemen in Doug Free and La’el Collins.

The impact of their offensive line can be felt by looking at the stats of DeMarco Murray and Darren McFadden these last few years. In his last three seasons in Dallas, Murray averaged 4.7 yards per carry (YPC). This past season with the Philadelphia Eagles, Murray only averaged 3.6 YPC. Part of this is due to him being misused in Chip Kelly’s system, but the offensive line factor definitely played a role in this decrease in production.

Murray’s decrease in production after leaving Dallas went hand-in-hand with McFadden’s increase in production after arriving in Dallas. In his three seasons with the Oakland Raiders, McFadden averaged 3.3 YPC, and in his first season in Dallas, he averaged 4.6 YPC. This is Darren McFadden we’re talking about, who ran this well behind this Dallas offensive line. I think I could probably run for 800 yards in a full season as the bell cow behind these road graders. What will Elliott be able to do running behind this line?

The Schedule
This upcoming season, the Cowboys have a schedule that should allow Elliott to put up massive numbers. The Cowboys’ schedule is tied for the fourth easiest in terms of opponent rushing DVOA (from 2015). They play nine games against teams that ranked worse than 20th in rushing DVOA while only playing three games against teams that ranked in the top 10 in the category.

The Cowboys’ schedule is also tied for the fourth easiest in terms of opponent fantasy points given up to running backs (in 2015). Dallas opponents this season gave up an average of 18.62 fantasy points per game to running backs last season. Two divisional opponents, the Eagles and the Giants, gave up the fourth and eighth most fantasy points to running backs last year, respectively.

Success of Last Year’s Rookie Running Backs
Following a fairly disappointing fantasy campaign for rookie running backs in 2014, two very successful rookie seasons for Todd Gurley and David Johnson in 2015 have reinvigorated the market for rookie running backs in fantasy football. Gurley finished fifth in fantasy points among running backs last season, although he only played in 13 games and started 12.

Johnson finished seventh in fantasy points among running backs, though he only started five of the 16 games he played in last season.

There’s no guarantee that Elliott will have a rookie season on par with Gurley’s or Johnson’s, but their success last season definitely makes fantasy owners more optimistic about the potential production of a rookie running back.

Biggest Risk Factor
There’s a lot of risk associated with taking Elliott this high in your fantasy draft. But that risk isn’t necessarily about him. It’s possible he’s just not as good as advertised; but that’s possible with any player, especially a rookie.

There’s also an inherent injury risk, especially at the running back position. Three of the top fantasy running backs going into last season got injured (Bell, Charles, Lynch), and one top running back ate his way out of elite fantasy back status. Any player can get injured, but Elliott’s lack of injury history doesn’t provide any additional fuel to the injury risk fire (hopefully, he’ll lay off the McDonald’s too).

The biggest risk factor to Elliott’s potential success is the health of Antonio Ramiro “Tony” Romo. Last season, everyone saw how much the Cowboys struggled without him in the lineup. Romo’s injury history makes him a question mark going forward.
If he has to miss games, the Cowboys will suffer, and Elliott’s fantasy production will most likely suffer.

Besides the Cowboys’ record suffering, the Cowboys also ran for fewer yards and scored fewer points per game over the last two seasons when Romo wasn’t under center. Both of these trends would hurt Elliott’s fantasy potential if he indeed has to take handoffs from Dak Prescott or Kellen Moore at all this season.

Conclusion
All in all, Elliott is one of the most exciting rookies in recent fantasy history. When you combine his immense talent with the Cowboys offensive line and friendly schedule, you have a perfect storm for fantasy running back hype. If Romo can stay healthy (it is a big IF), the Cowboys offense will be better, and Elliott will have the best chance to reach his full (fantasy) potential.
 

dbair1967

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I'm taking him with 1st overall pick. 2200 yds, 27 tds, 7.7 yds per carry
 
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