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2011 NFL Mock Draft
Last update: Thursday, Aug. 19, 2010. Major changes in both rounds.
Next update: TBA.

This 2011 NFL Mock Draft order is based on my 2010 NFL Season Previews with slight adjustments based on the preseason.


1. Buffalo Bills: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
Well, that sure didn't work very well. Both Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick embarrassed themselves in the preseason opener at Washington. And why are the Bills waiting until the second preseason game to play Brian Brohm? Buffalo's front office is a disgrace.

Bills fans should pray that their team finishes with the worst record in 2010 - maybe that'll force overwhelmed general manager Buddy Nix to draft a quarterback for a change. Jake Locker is mobile and can scramble for chunks of yardage pretty well, so maybe Chan Gailey will actually think he's good enough for his amazing "run, pass short, pass short, run, pass short, pass short" offense.

Locker is the No. 1 quarterback in the 2011 class - for now. Locker should have declared for the 2010 NFL Draft because a billion things can happen over the next 12 months. Maybe he gets hurt. Maybe the scouts see something they don't like and his stock drops. Maybe his teammates don't play up to par and drag him down. Maybe he gets distracted. Maybe general managers become worried that his decision to go back to school means that he's not fully invested in football.

That's a lot of maybes, but just look at recent history: Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn and Brian Brohm all made a huge mistake by not declaring right away.

Of course, Locker could always sit out the 2010 season. It worked wonders for Sam Bradford.


2. St. Louis Rams: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
I went back and forth between A.J. Green and Robert Quinn. Quinn certainly makes a ton of sense because he has the make-up of a top-two overall pick, and the Rams need to get more pressure on the quarterback.

However, I settled on Green for two reasons. First, Steve Spagnuolo's specialty in New York was generating a great pass rush. Coaches tend to be cocky, so Spagnuolo probably believes he can accomplish this with lesser players. Maybe he'll have his eye on some defensive end in Round 2 like Jeremy Beal or Sam Acho.

And second, because the Rams have so much invested into Sam Bradford, they need to acquire a blue-chip target for him. I know the team has Donnie Avery, Laurent Robinson and Mardy Gilyard, but none of those guys are a No. 1 threat that defenses will respect. Green undoubtedly will be. And aside from providing Bradford with a great downfield weapon, he would also stretch the defense and open up more running room for Steven Jackson.

3. Kansas City Chiefs: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
Matt Cassel is due a $7.5 million option bonus before the 2011 season. If he has another bad year - if the Chiefs are drafting No. 3 overall, that's definitely the case - then he will be released. Kansas City will then do what it should have done in the first place - draft a franchise signal caller early (Mark Sanchez, 2009 or Jimmy Clausen in the second round, 2010).

Andrew Luck will be a redshirt sophomore this season, but there's still a good chance he declares. If he's still projected to go this high or if Jim Harbaugh takes an NFL coaching job, Luck will bolt for the NFL.

4. Seattle Seahawks: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
Where is Seattle's pass rush going to come from? I honestly have no idea, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Seahawks finished the year with a dozen sacks or fewer.

If Robert Quinn is on the board, Seattle has to take him. He's a monstrous pass-rusher who has the potential to go No. 1 overall.

Pick change; previously Patrick Peterson, CB



5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Rashean Mathis will be entering his contract year once the 2011 NFL Draft rolls around. Considering his financial demands and the fact that his play has slipped lately, the 2011 season could be his last in Jacksonville. If so, the Jaguars will desperately need help at cornerback if they want to beat Peyton Manning.

Patrick Peterson is the best cornerback prospect to come along in a very long time, while Prince Amukamara isn't too far behind him.

Pick change; previously Robert Quinn, DE

6. Arizona Cardinals: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Can Greg Toler thrive as one of Arizona's starting corners? He played well in limited action last year, but he's still a relative unknown. If he struggles, the Cardinals will have to find someone new to play across from Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Prince Amukamara is one of the top players available at this spot.

7. Cleveland Browns: Marcell Dareus, DE/DT, Alabama
I'd like to give the Browns a franchise quarterback, but Mike Holmgren doesn't believe in drafting one in the first round. Besides, he pulled rank and selected Colt McCoy despite objections from others in the front office. Why would he suddenly give up on McCoy after a year, especially considering that McCoy won't even play this season?

Shaun Rogers won't be around much longer. He's due $6.9 million this year and $5.5 million in 2011. He'll be 32 a month before the 2011 NFL Draft. If he's cut loose, the Browns will need to find an adequate replacement up front.

Marcell Dareus is more than adequate. As a mere sophomore last season in Alabama's 3-4/4-3 hybrid defense, Dareus really came on and accumulated 6.5 sacks in just four starts, and then proceeded to knock McCoy out of the game during one of the two national championships this past winter. Think McCoy will be glad to have this guy on his side?

A great athlete despite weighing 301 pounds, Dareus is expected to take the SEC by storm this fall. If he has a big year (assuming he plays amid yet another ridiculous NCAA allegation), he could be one of the first players chosen in the 2011 NFL Draft. In this case, he's a steal at No. 7.

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
Adrian Clayborn is a top 10 talent, but may slip a bit because he punched a cab driver. However, the Buccaneers have drafted a receiver who quit on his team (Mike Williams) and paid tons of money to an offensive tackle who weighs 370 pounds (Donald Penn), so they don't seem to care much about character concerns.

If Clayborn lives up to his potential and stays off the police blotter, he would be a hell of a complement to Gerald McCoy.

Pick change; previously Mark Ingram, RB



9. Carolina Panthers: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
I know the Panthers just obtained Brandon LaFell (who dropped a perfectly thrown touchdown pass in the preseason opener), but they also spent their top 2010 NFL Draft pick on Jimmy Clausen after giving Matt Moore $3 million for one season.

Carolina won't hesitate to select Julio Jones if he falls to them. He's just that good, and he would really solidify the No. 2 receiver position across from Steve Smith. Jones was once considered a top-five prospect, but struggled with drops in 2009.

Pick change; previously Jonathan Baldwin, WR

10. New England Patriots: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
New England acquired this selection from Oakland for Richard Seymour. If Tom Brady and Wes Welker are healthy, and either Rob Gronkowski or Aaron Hernandez pans out, imagine how explosive New England's offense would be with Mark Ingram as a threat coming out of the backfield.

Pick change; previously Ryan Williams, RB
 
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11. Pittsburgh Steelers: Aaron Williams, CB, Texas
In a must-win game, the Steelers couldn't contain Bruce Gradkowski on three separate fourth-quarter drives. Troy Polamalu's absence was huge, but so was the lack of talent at cornerback. That position must be taken care of soon if young players like Joe Burnett and Keenan Lewis don't step up.

12. Washington Redskins: Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
With the offensive line shored up, the Redskins will need to concentrate on finding weapons for Donovan McNabb. McNabb would love having a dynamic receiver like Jonathan Baldwin at his disposal.

Baldwin, at 6-5, 225, caught 57 balls for 1,111 yards and eight touchdowns as a sophomore in 2009.

Pick change; previously Julio Jones, WR

13. Detroit Lions: Greg Romeus, DE, Pittsburgh
In a division with Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre and Jay Cutler, you have to be able to get to the quarterback. With a defensive line of Ndamukong Suh, Greg Romeus, Corey Williams and Kyle Vanden Bosch, the Lions would be able to pile up a handful of sacks each week, easing lots of pressure off their anemic secondary.

I know Detroit has Vanden Bosch, Cliff Avril and Willie Young at defensive end, but they were also stacked at defensive tackle when they selected Suh. This regime has made it clear that they will take the best available player no matter what.

14. Cincinnati Bengals: Joseph Barksdale, OT, LSU
Andre Smith's weight is out of control. He's 370 now. In a few months, he'll probably be 400. Soon enough, he'll be larger than the fat ladies in my gym pool.

Marvin Lewis has taken note of this and has complained to the media. If Smith can't get on the field, the Bengals may cut their losses and draft a new right tackle. Joseph Barksdale has no character issues as far as I know, but maybe Mike Brown will think that he's related to Avon Barksdale. Obtaining Avon's relative would instantly satisfy Brown's quest for players with character concerns in the 2011 offseason.

Pick change; previously Adrian Clayborn, DE

15. Detroit Lions: Greg Romeus, DE, Pittsburgh
In a division with Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre and Jay Cutler, you have to be able to get to the quarterback. With a defensive line of Ndamukong Suh, Greg Romeus, Corey Williams and Kyle Vanden Bosch, the Lions would be able to pile up a handful of sacks each week, easing lots of pressure off their anemic secondary.

I know Detroit has Vanden Bosch, Cliff Avril and Willie Young at defensive end, but they were also stacked at defensive tackle when they selected Suh. This regime has made it clear that they will take the best available player no matter what.

16. Cincinnati Bengals: Joseph Barksdale, OT, LSU
Andre Smith's weight is out of control. He's 370 now. In a few months, he'll probably be 400. Soon enough, he'll be larger than the fat ladies in my gym pool.

Marvin Lewis has taken note of this and has complained to the media. If Smith can't get on the field, the Bengals may cut their losses and draft a new right tackle. Joseph Barksdale has no character issues as far as I know, but maybe Mike Brown will think that he's related to Avon Barksdale. Obtaining Avon's relative would instantly satisfy Brown's quest for players with character concerns in the 2011 offseason.

Pick change; previously Adrian Clayborn, DE
 
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17. Chicago Bears: DeMarcus Love, OT, Arkansas
The Bears can't be serious about having Frank Omiyale play right tackle. He couldn't block a plastic bag floating around in a gentle breeze. Something has to be done about this. DeMarcus Love is an athletic 315-pound tackle who could easily play on the blind side at the next level.

Pick change; previously Joseph Barksdale, OT


18. New York Giants: Travis Lewis, OLB, Oklahoma
Giants general manager Jerry Reese usually takes the top player on his board, and if he sticks with his strategy, he'll select Travis Lewis in this scenario. Lewis is a terrific linebacker who would be a great fit in Perry Fewell's defense.

19. Philadelphia Eagles: Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina
Andy Reid usually surprises Eagles fans on Draft Day, and I think this would be a pretty shocking pick. Still, I think it makes a ton of sense.

Mike Patterson had major consistency issues last year and was a pretty big disappointment. Marvin Austin wouldn't be the answer; he's very athletic and has a ton of upside, but has never lived up to it on the field. However, Reid has recently fallen in love with players with poor work ethic and character concerns (Jason Peters, QB Dog Killer). Austin would just be the latest addition to that group.

20. New England Patriots: Allen Bailey, DE/DT, Miami
I was pretty surprised that the Patriots passed up on Jared Odrick and allowed him to fall into enemy hands. Bill Belichick failed to address the 3-4 end position in the 2010 NFL Draft until very late, so he'll have to do that here.



21. Minnesota Vikings: Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State
Chris Berman probably hates this pick because the Vikings would never take a quarterback, for it would piss off Brett Favre. But that was in 2010. If Favre struggles this upcoming season - he's a 41-year-old coming off ankle surgery; I think that's remotely possible - then Minnesota's draft strategy will change come April 2011.

What about Ryan Mallett? Well, Christian Ponder makes more sense for Brad Childress' offense. Plus, Ponder could solidify his mid-first-round status with a solid senior campaign.

22. Atlanta Falcons: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
I was disappointed the Falcons weren't able to do two things this offseason: upgrade the pass rush and find a solid No. 2 receiver for Matt Ryan. Both items could be dealt with next spring.

If Michael Floyd pans out, Atlanta's going to have a ridiculously dangerous offense.

23. New York Jets: Von Miller, DE/OLB, Texas A&M
The Jets will likely have to defeat the Colts to advance to the Super Bowl in the next couple of years. To do so, they'll need to put as much pressure on Peyton Manning as possible without sending multiple blitzers and in turn exposing their secondary. Upgrades are needed at 3-4 end and rush linebacker.

Von Miller, who beat Russell Okung on a few occasions in a 2009 meeting, is the top rush linebacker in the 2011 class.

24. San Diego Chargers: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
The situation with Marcus McNeill and Vincent Jackson is pretty ugly. Both players are likely to sit out a huge chunk of the 2010 season and bolt as free agents next spring. If this happens, San Diego needs to find a new left tackle to protect Philip Rivers.

Pick change; previously Nate Potter, OT



25. San Francisco 49ers: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
I have the 49ers making the playoffs and even winning a game against the Falcons. However, they don't stand a chance to go deep into the postseason because Alex Smith will be a huge liability. He's not looking any better thus far; he went 3-of-9 in the preseason opener and missed a wide open Vernon Davis for a 50-yard touchdown. If he really struggles this upcoming January, San Francisco may opt for another quarterback.

Ryan Mallett could go a lot higher than this, but he could just as easily fall because of lingering questions about his intelligence and accuracy. Mike Singletary may want to take a chance on the strong-armed quarterback if he can get him this late in the first round.

26. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech
There's a good chance Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will no longer be Miami Dolphins when the 2011 NFL Draft rolls around; both are free agents after this season. Ryan Williams had a dynamic redshirt freshman campaign for the Hokies in 2009.

Pick change; previously Deunta Williams, FS

27. New Orleans Saints: Bruce Carter, OLB, North Carolina
Saints fans are probably shaking their heads right now. Outside linebackers are frequently mocked to New Orleans, but it never happens on Draft Day. Well, I'm going to try again. If Jonathan Casillas doesn't pan out, the Saints are still going to have a big hole at weakside linebacker.

28. Indianapolis Colts: Nate Potter, OT, Boise State
Even though the defensive side of the ball has been the weaker half of Indianapolis' roster, general manager Bill Polian has spent seven of his 11 first-round picks on offensive players.

The Colts have to improve their offensive line, and I'm shocked they didn't do so in the 2010 NFL Draft. My guess is that they'll do that come April 2011.

Pick change; previously Anthony Castonzo, OT



29. Houston Texans: DeAndre McDaniel, S, Clemson
Eugene Wilson is a decent free safety. The problem is that he's injured all the time; Wilson has missed a whopping 29 games the past four seasons. If he misses a significant amount of time again, Houston will have to find a new free safety.

30. Dallas Cowboys: Deunta Williams, FS, North Carolina
Unless Alan Ball can effectively step into the starting free safety role, the Cowboys will have major issues at the position this year.

Pick change; previously Rahim Moore, FS

31. Baltimore Ravens: Mike Pouncey, C/G, Florida
Baltimore's offensive line has no issues right now, but will that be the case in 11 months? Center Matt Birk will be a 35-year-old entering his contract year. Right tackle Jared Gaither could be gone. And right guard Marshal Yanda will be a free agent a couple of years removed from a torn ACL, MCL and PCL. Yanda played incredibly well in 2009, but will Ozzie Newsome wish to dedicate a moderately sized contract to a lineman with a dubious knee history? I guess we'll find out.

32. Green Bay Packers: Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia
Charles Woodson just won Defensive Player of the Year, but he'll be 35 a month into the 2011 season. He can't possibly keep up this level of play into his mid-30s, can he?
 

sbk92

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30. Dallas Cowboys: Deunta Williams, FS, North Carolina
Unless Alan Ball can effectively step into the starting free safety role, the Cowboys will have major issues at the position this year.

That's probably true but it's not like we wouldn't have a possible answer already on the roster in Akwasi Owusu-Ansah.
 
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That's probably true but it's not like we wouldn't have a possible answer already on the roster in Akwasi Owusu-Ansah.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking.

I really wish a true offensive linemen would fall into our lap.

It's hard to speculate at this time obviously, but that's what I am hoping for.
 

bvhawkeye

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I'm hoping for OL as well, however, I just don't see Jerry wanting to do that. He'll draft another fast WR or a pass rushing LB so the press will all want to interview him on draft day.
 
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I'm hoping for OL as well, however, I just don't see Jerry wanting to do that. He'll draft another fast WR or a pass rushing LB so the press will all want to interview him on draft day.

Sad, but true.

I don't understand Jerry's theory of drafting offensive linemen.

Btw, welcome aboard hawkeye, your from scout.com right?
 
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Reading this article just got me more excited about the upcoming draft, than I am for a really for real football game.

This season sucks.

Oh . . . and take the best player available. Don't force a position.
 
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