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When we chart players with our draft analysts, we often see the phrase, "there are so many 2nd round rated players, but you can't fit 50 or so players into 32 spots."
I decided to have our analyst TD put some names to that phrase. We've run through the permutations for the Cowboys 1st round pick in the 18th spot, but how many options will Dallas have at its 2nd round pick, the 47th overall?
Today, we'll start counting the players on the offense who carry late 1st or certain 2nd round grades. Tomorrow, we'll do the same for the defense. What emerges is the outline of a deep 2nd round which should offer multiple quality choices for the Cowboys at positions of need.
Cowboys Nation: Welcome back. Do you have any scoops for us this week?
TD: I may have some nuggets. You want to lead with the sexiest things, and there's rumblings that if Geno Smith is there at six that he could be Michael Lombardi's first pick in Cleveland.
Also, Ryan Nassib is also the flavor of the month in the draftnik world. I'm hearing there's a chance he could go to Buffalo at 8.
CN: That's not the craziest rumor I've heard. One NFL beat writer pointed out recently that Nassib's coach at Syracuse. Doug Marrone, is the Bills new head coach. Ideally you would like to get your quarterback in the first year of your regime and grow together, if you don't have a veteran in house. The Bills don't, unless you believe in Kevin Kolb.
TD: I'm hearing Marcus Lattimore may be in play in the late 1st to teams who are looking to pad their roster. I asked about the 49ers and was told they're not one of those teams, because they want to win the Super Bowl next year. Look at other teams who may be thinking they have a bigger window and don't have to play make or break in 2013. I didn't get any teams from my sources and I haven't had a chance to look at the last 10 teams in the round, but I'm told he could go at the back end of the 1st round.
What else? Sharrif Floyd is slipping a bit. Not out of the top 20, but he could now go in the 5-10 range, and that Star Lotulelei could now be an option for the Raiders at pick 3. Defensive tackle looks like Oakland's pick and Star could be the guy.
I also heard there are not many teams out there who have a 1st round grade on Matt Barkley. It only takes one team but it seems that Nassib is hot and Barkley is the guy dropping. I don't know if he'll have a Jimmy Clausen-type drop but it's possible that Barkley could drop into the 2nd round.
CN: We've discussed the top 20 players to death. The two mocks you've done for us have gone 20 deep, obviously because Dallas picks 18th. I want you to give us a sense of the quality which should be there a round later. With New Orleans and Cleveland forfeiting 2nd round picks, the Browns because they took Josh Gordon in last year's Supplemental Draft and the Saints because of Bountygate, the second Cowboys pick comes only 30 picks after the first.
List for us players who you are fairly certain will go in the 20 to 50 range. Go position by position, starting with quarterbacks. Be fairly conservative -- tell us guys who have a strong shot to go in that zone.
Before we start, however, let's see if we can find 19 guys who we can say with some confidence will go in the top 19.
TD: Okay, at quarterback, I'll say Geno, and maybe Ryan Nassib, based on what I just told you.
CN: Okay, do you see any running backs there?
TD: No.
CN: What about receivers?
TD: Conservatively? I'd say Tavon Austin. Cordarrelle Patterson could go up there, but he's not a sure thing.
CN: Any tight ends?
TD: Maybe one, but I'll say no.
That's just three at the offensive skill positions, but let's move to offensive line. Three offensive tackles?
TD: Yeah, Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson are sure things, and those three could go in the top six to seven picks.
CN: Add the guards Chance Warmack and Jon Cooper and that's eight offensive players. Flip it to defense. What about cornerbacks and safeties?
TD: Kenny Vaccaro is my one safety. Dee Milliner goes up there. So do Xavier Rhodes and Desmond Trufant.
CN: That's twelve. What about linebackers or defensive ends?
TD: Stick with guys who can rush. Ezekiel Ansah, Dion Jordan, Bjoern Werner, Jarvis Jones.
CN: That gets us to sixteen and you have the tackes, Say, Star Lotulelei, Sharrif Floyd and Sheldon Richardson. That's nineteen.
TD: Right.
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CN: Okay then, who comes after that? Again, focus on players who could go between 20 and 50. You joke that there are 100 players who get tagged here every year, but can we at least get to 30? Let's go again by positions. Quarterbacks? If you have two guys in the top 19, who's in the next tier?
TD: I think a bunch of guys go in that range. You're getting good value now if you're looking at the top of the 2nd round. You're not paying a heavy price. I'd say Barkley is definitely in play here. I think Mike Glennon is in play here. I'd put E.J. Manuel in this range. I think those three guys definitely have a chance.
CN: What about running backs? Is this where Eddie Lacy and Giovani Bernard go?
TD: Yeah. I think they both go in that 20-50 range. Some people are really turned off by Lacy this week. I think he would be a good value late in the 1st round.
CN: Receiver. There's a lot of squishiness once we get past Tavon Austin. I've heard Cordarrelle Patterson could go in the 12-20 range, but I'm also hearing he's dropping a bit. I've also heard Keenan Allen failed drug test at the Combine?
TD: I heard that too. If that happens... You were looking at a guy who was a fringe top 20 pick. It sounds funny but if you're a a quarterback and you fail a test, you fall pretty far. You're a cornerback or a pass rusher or a receiver and you fail? You generally don't fall that far. I think Allen is more talented that Michael Floyd, but I still think he'll stay in the 1st round.
I would put Patterson definitely in the 20-50 range. I would have put Allen higher, but let's put him there for now. Terrence Williams is in that range. DeAndre Hopkins from Clemson, I think he goes in that range. So that's four receivers.
CN: So that's nine players already. Let's move to tight ends. It looks like there are some good values if you're looking for a tight end 20 to 50.
TD: Yeah. Zack Ertz from Stanford. He could be in that range. Tyler Eifert goes high, in my opinion. I don't know if he cracks the top 20 but I think he goes 1st round. Gavin Escobar has a lot of people liking his game because of his basketball-type frame. He can really go up and pluck the football.
I am a bit leery of putting too many tight ends in this range. We heard last year that Dwayne Allen was a solid 2nd round pick. Then he runs poorly at the Combine and he goes in the 3rd round. I think we may see that here. When you have a good draft class with tight ends, they're like running backs. They tend to fall a bit. I would say Ertz and Eifert high. I'd say Eifert in the 20-25 range and he could go higher, maybe as high as 14.
CN: Okay, that's 11-12 players, depending on what we do with Escobar, and we haven't mentioned offensive line yet.
Let's start with the next group of offensive tackles. You start with D.J. Fluker, Terron Armstead, Kyle Long. Does Menelik Watson slip in there?
TD: Watson's in there. I heard today that Brian Winters, the guard from Kent State has some buzz going. And he could slip into the top 50. Justin Pugh is also in there.
CN: That's high on Winters based on what I heard before.
TD: It is, but he's played left tackle. He's not overly rangy and his arms are a bit short, so he looks like a guard in the NFL. Teams like that he's balanced laterally and has some power. So he can hold his own, he can anchors and has some balance.
CN: That's 18 players already.
TD: That's a lot of players.
CN: But that's good if you're the Cowboys. If nothing but offensive players go
after pick 19, we're already up to pick 37 and we haven't touched the defensive side of the ball.
When we chart players with our draft analysts, we often see the phrase, "there are so many 2nd round rated players, but you can't fit 50 or so players into 32 spots."
I decided to have our analyst TD put some names to that phrase. We've run through the permutations for the Cowboys 1st round pick in the 18th spot, but how many options will Dallas have at its 2nd round pick, the 47th overall?
Today, we'll start counting the players on the offense who carry late 1st or certain 2nd round grades. Tomorrow, we'll do the same for the defense. What emerges is the outline of a deep 2nd round which should offer multiple quality choices for the Cowboys at positions of need.
Cowboys Nation: Welcome back. Do you have any scoops for us this week?
TD: I may have some nuggets. You want to lead with the sexiest things, and there's rumblings that if Geno Smith is there at six that he could be Michael Lombardi's first pick in Cleveland.
Also, Ryan Nassib is also the flavor of the month in the draftnik world. I'm hearing there's a chance he could go to Buffalo at 8.
CN: That's not the craziest rumor I've heard. One NFL beat writer pointed out recently that Nassib's coach at Syracuse. Doug Marrone, is the Bills new head coach. Ideally you would like to get your quarterback in the first year of your regime and grow together, if you don't have a veteran in house. The Bills don't, unless you believe in Kevin Kolb.
TD: I'm hearing Marcus Lattimore may be in play in the late 1st to teams who are looking to pad their roster. I asked about the 49ers and was told they're not one of those teams, because they want to win the Super Bowl next year. Look at other teams who may be thinking they have a bigger window and don't have to play make or break in 2013. I didn't get any teams from my sources and I haven't had a chance to look at the last 10 teams in the round, but I'm told he could go at the back end of the 1st round.
What else? Sharrif Floyd is slipping a bit. Not out of the top 20, but he could now go in the 5-10 range, and that Star Lotulelei could now be an option for the Raiders at pick 3. Defensive tackle looks like Oakland's pick and Star could be the guy.
I also heard there are not many teams out there who have a 1st round grade on Matt Barkley. It only takes one team but it seems that Nassib is hot and Barkley is the guy dropping. I don't know if he'll have a Jimmy Clausen-type drop but it's possible that Barkley could drop into the 2nd round.
CN: We've discussed the top 20 players to death. The two mocks you've done for us have gone 20 deep, obviously because Dallas picks 18th. I want you to give us a sense of the quality which should be there a round later. With New Orleans and Cleveland forfeiting 2nd round picks, the Browns because they took Josh Gordon in last year's Supplemental Draft and the Saints because of Bountygate, the second Cowboys pick comes only 30 picks after the first.
List for us players who you are fairly certain will go in the 20 to 50 range. Go position by position, starting with quarterbacks. Be fairly conservative -- tell us guys who have a strong shot to go in that zone.
Before we start, however, let's see if we can find 19 guys who we can say with some confidence will go in the top 19.
TD: Okay, at quarterback, I'll say Geno, and maybe Ryan Nassib, based on what I just told you.
CN: Okay, do you see any running backs there?
TD: No.
CN: What about receivers?
TD: Conservatively? I'd say Tavon Austin. Cordarrelle Patterson could go up there, but he's not a sure thing.
CN: Any tight ends?
TD: Maybe one, but I'll say no.
That's just three at the offensive skill positions, but let's move to offensive line. Three offensive tackles?
TD: Yeah, Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson are sure things, and those three could go in the top six to seven picks.
CN: Add the guards Chance Warmack and Jon Cooper and that's eight offensive players. Flip it to defense. What about cornerbacks and safeties?
TD: Kenny Vaccaro is my one safety. Dee Milliner goes up there. So do Xavier Rhodes and Desmond Trufant.
CN: That's twelve. What about linebackers or defensive ends?
TD: Stick with guys who can rush. Ezekiel Ansah, Dion Jordan, Bjoern Werner, Jarvis Jones.
CN: That gets us to sixteen and you have the tackes, Say, Star Lotulelei, Sharrif Floyd and Sheldon Richardson. That's nineteen.
TD: Right.
\
CN: Okay then, who comes after that? Again, focus on players who could go between 20 and 50. You joke that there are 100 players who get tagged here every year, but can we at least get to 30? Let's go again by positions. Quarterbacks? If you have two guys in the top 19, who's in the next tier?
TD: I think a bunch of guys go in that range. You're getting good value now if you're looking at the top of the 2nd round. You're not paying a heavy price. I'd say Barkley is definitely in play here. I think Mike Glennon is in play here. I'd put E.J. Manuel in this range. I think those three guys definitely have a chance.
CN: What about running backs? Is this where Eddie Lacy and Giovani Bernard go?
TD: Yeah. I think they both go in that 20-50 range. Some people are really turned off by Lacy this week. I think he would be a good value late in the 1st round.
CN: Receiver. There's a lot of squishiness once we get past Tavon Austin. I've heard Cordarrelle Patterson could go in the 12-20 range, but I'm also hearing he's dropping a bit. I've also heard Keenan Allen failed drug test at the Combine?
TD: I heard that too. If that happens... You were looking at a guy who was a fringe top 20 pick. It sounds funny but if you're a a quarterback and you fail a test, you fall pretty far. You're a cornerback or a pass rusher or a receiver and you fail? You generally don't fall that far. I think Allen is more talented that Michael Floyd, but I still think he'll stay in the 1st round.
I would put Patterson definitely in the 20-50 range. I would have put Allen higher, but let's put him there for now. Terrence Williams is in that range. DeAndre Hopkins from Clemson, I think he goes in that range. So that's four receivers.
CN: So that's nine players already. Let's move to tight ends. It looks like there are some good values if you're looking for a tight end 20 to 50.
TD: Yeah. Zack Ertz from Stanford. He could be in that range. Tyler Eifert goes high, in my opinion. I don't know if he cracks the top 20 but I think he goes 1st round. Gavin Escobar has a lot of people liking his game because of his basketball-type frame. He can really go up and pluck the football.
I am a bit leery of putting too many tight ends in this range. We heard last year that Dwayne Allen was a solid 2nd round pick. Then he runs poorly at the Combine and he goes in the 3rd round. I think we may see that here. When you have a good draft class with tight ends, they're like running backs. They tend to fall a bit. I would say Ertz and Eifert high. I'd say Eifert in the 20-25 range and he could go higher, maybe as high as 14.
CN: Okay, that's 11-12 players, depending on what we do with Escobar, and we haven't mentioned offensive line yet.
Let's start with the next group of offensive tackles. You start with D.J. Fluker, Terron Armstead, Kyle Long. Does Menelik Watson slip in there?
TD: Watson's in there. I heard today that Brian Winters, the guard from Kent State has some buzz going. And he could slip into the top 50. Justin Pugh is also in there.
CN: That's high on Winters based on what I heard before.
TD: It is, but he's played left tackle. He's not overly rangy and his arms are a bit short, so he looks like a guard in the NFL. Teams like that he's balanced laterally and has some power. So he can hold his own, he can anchors and has some balance.
CN: That's 18 players already.
TD: That's a lot of players.
CN: But that's good if you're the Cowboys. If nothing but offensive players go
after pick 19, we're already up to pick 37 and we haven't touched the defensive side of the ball.