http://www.cowboysnation.com/2013/03/cowboys-draft-2013-its-like-2010-all.html
Posted by Rafael at Monday, March 25, 2013
In my guest role on Bob Sturm's blog this past week, I argued that 2013's draft feels a lot like 2010, in targets. In that draft, as in perhaps this one, a guard and free safety were two of Dallas' primary targets, though the team started in the 27th spot that year, where it begins in the 18th this spring.
Let's take a refresher on 2010. On draft weekend, images of the team's draft board made their way into the internet food chain, allowing fans to reconstruct the board. Dallas had 23 players with 1st round grades that year. The 10th though 16th slots, with eventual draft slot in parenthesis:
1-10 Mike Iupati, G, Montana (17)
1-11 Earl Thomas, FS, Texas (14)
1-12 Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma St. (24)
1-13 Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa (23)
1-14 Sean Lee, ILB, Penn St. (55)
1-15 Jared Odrick, DE, Penn St. (28)
1-16 Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, USF, (15)
(Note: the Cowboys use two numbers in a players grade. The first indicates the round in which he's graded and the second is his overall number on Dallas' board. It's possible to see two players in sequence be rated,, 1-20 and 2-21. This means that the latter player has the highest second round grade and the first one the lowest first round grade.)
As draft day approached, rumors began swirling that Dallas was working hard with Miami, then owners of the 12th pick, to work out a deal which would let the Cowboys draft Texas safety Earl Thomas. On draft morning, I spoke with Wes Bunting, then with the National Football Post, who relayed that their people were hearing this story from several sources.
That deal did not come to pass. Thomas slid past the 12th spot to 14, where the Seahawks picked him up. In the market's aftermath, Cowboys officials relayed that Iupati, Thomas and Bryant had been targeted as priority players. The breakdowns pushed them to make a deal with New England, jumping from 27th to 24, where they took Bryant. Dallas' fear was that Baltimore, picking just ahead of them, and needed a recever, would pick Dez.
The scarcity of top players also dictated the move. Iupati was picked 17th. Bulaga, a right tackle prospect, lasted a bit longer but was picked 23rd by the Packers. His selection may also have forced the Jones' hand. When the Packers came on the board, the Cowboys board looked like this:
1-12 Bryant
1-13 Bulaga
1-14 Lee
Bryant and Bulaga play what are frequently referred to as "priority positions." They're skill positions, offensive tackles and rush and coverage spots on defense.) When Bulaga left the board, Dallas had only one priority player with a high first round grade. It did have other priority positions, most notably cornerback Kyle Wilson, but his grade was 1-18, much lower than Bryant's 1-12. For Dallas, the choice was making the deal and assuring the top rated player, at a priority position, or risking losing him and settling for Sean Lee.
As things turned out, Dallas got both Bryant and Lee, and both have at times, lived up to the grades. Dallas' assessment of their peak levels of play has been on the mark.
But that's getting ahead of things. This short list shows that Dallas would in fact draft a 1st round guard if he reached them, and was rated highly enough. Iupati's top-ten ranking put squarely him in the 2010 discussion. I am fairly certain David DeCastro's grade got him into last year's discussion, but the Cowboys, picking 14th, got a shot at a much higher rated player in Morris Claiborne. If Chance Warmack has a top 10, Iupati-like grade, and he's the highest rated player when the Cowboys go on the clock, that could well put him in Cowboys silver.
The notion that Dallas simply won't pick a 1st round guard is not true.
On the other hand, being a highly-rated guard does not mean Dallas will automatically pick you if you're the highest player left. It instead raises several questions. Where do Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper rank on Dallas' board? Where does right tackle Alabama right tackle D.J. Fluker rate on their board? Where does this year's Thomas wannabe, Texas safety Kenny Vaccaro rate on the board? And how do they grade relative to each other? That last question may dictate which player the Cowboys select when the 18th spot rolls around.
Posted by Rafael at Monday, March 25, 2013
In my guest role on Bob Sturm's blog this past week, I argued that 2013's draft feels a lot like 2010, in targets. In that draft, as in perhaps this one, a guard and free safety were two of Dallas' primary targets, though the team started in the 27th spot that year, where it begins in the 18th this spring.
Let's take a refresher on 2010. On draft weekend, images of the team's draft board made their way into the internet food chain, allowing fans to reconstruct the board. Dallas had 23 players with 1st round grades that year. The 10th though 16th slots, with eventual draft slot in parenthesis:
1-10 Mike Iupati, G, Montana (17)
1-11 Earl Thomas, FS, Texas (14)
1-12 Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma St. (24)
1-13 Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa (23)
1-14 Sean Lee, ILB, Penn St. (55)
1-15 Jared Odrick, DE, Penn St. (28)
1-16 Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, USF, (15)
(Note: the Cowboys use two numbers in a players grade. The first indicates the round in which he's graded and the second is his overall number on Dallas' board. It's possible to see two players in sequence be rated,, 1-20 and 2-21. This means that the latter player has the highest second round grade and the first one the lowest first round grade.)
As draft day approached, rumors began swirling that Dallas was working hard with Miami, then owners of the 12th pick, to work out a deal which would let the Cowboys draft Texas safety Earl Thomas. On draft morning, I spoke with Wes Bunting, then with the National Football Post, who relayed that their people were hearing this story from several sources.
That deal did not come to pass. Thomas slid past the 12th spot to 14, where the Seahawks picked him up. In the market's aftermath, Cowboys officials relayed that Iupati, Thomas and Bryant had been targeted as priority players. The breakdowns pushed them to make a deal with New England, jumping from 27th to 24, where they took Bryant. Dallas' fear was that Baltimore, picking just ahead of them, and needed a recever, would pick Dez.
The scarcity of top players also dictated the move. Iupati was picked 17th. Bulaga, a right tackle prospect, lasted a bit longer but was picked 23rd by the Packers. His selection may also have forced the Jones' hand. When the Packers came on the board, the Cowboys board looked like this:
1-12 Bryant
1-13 Bulaga
1-14 Lee
Bryant and Bulaga play what are frequently referred to as "priority positions." They're skill positions, offensive tackles and rush and coverage spots on defense.) When Bulaga left the board, Dallas had only one priority player with a high first round grade. It did have other priority positions, most notably cornerback Kyle Wilson, but his grade was 1-18, much lower than Bryant's 1-12. For Dallas, the choice was making the deal and assuring the top rated player, at a priority position, or risking losing him and settling for Sean Lee.
As things turned out, Dallas got both Bryant and Lee, and both have at times, lived up to the grades. Dallas' assessment of their peak levels of play has been on the mark.
But that's getting ahead of things. This short list shows that Dallas would in fact draft a 1st round guard if he reached them, and was rated highly enough. Iupati's top-ten ranking put squarely him in the 2010 discussion. I am fairly certain David DeCastro's grade got him into last year's discussion, but the Cowboys, picking 14th, got a shot at a much higher rated player in Morris Claiborne. If Chance Warmack has a top 10, Iupati-like grade, and he's the highest rated player when the Cowboys go on the clock, that could well put him in Cowboys silver.
The notion that Dallas simply won't pick a 1st round guard is not true.
On the other hand, being a highly-rated guard does not mean Dallas will automatically pick you if you're the highest player left. It instead raises several questions. Where do Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper rank on Dallas' board? Where does right tackle Alabama right tackle D.J. Fluker rate on their board? Where does this year's Thomas wannabe, Texas safety Kenny Vaccaro rate on the board? And how do they grade relative to each other? That last question may dictate which player the Cowboys select when the 18th spot rolls around.
