Bob Sturm: What I’m expecting to see in Sunday’s Cowboys-Lions game

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Bob Sturm: What I’m expecting to see in Sunday’s Cowboys-Lions game
Bob Sturm
Published: January 2, 2015 4:33 pm

Special contributor Bob Sturm answered questions in a chat Friday. Here are some highlights.

Question: What’s your prediction for Sunday’s game?

Bob Sturm: I would expect that this is the type of game that the Cowboys can control if they continue down the path they have been on. The Lions are a stout defense but I really don’t fear them as much after seeing Green Bay run the ball so well on them. The passing attack though really needs to work for their yards and points because the Lions seldom get beat deep. They keep their safeties deep and make you fit it into tight windows in front of them. The Lions without Larry Warford are going to rely much more on Stafford winning this game than pounding it with Bell. That hurts their chances, I believe, so I like the Cowboys 31-21.

Question: Why are we not hearing Jason Garrett or Scott Linehan’s name being mentioned for NFL coaching openings? I also heard the Chicago Bears are going to be asking Dallas permission to talk to the Cowboy’s general manager about their GM opening.

Bob Sturm: I am interested in seeing if this holds during January which is when “silly season” really cranks up for openings and the role that the Senior Bowl and Super Bowl week play in all of this. I will admit it is rather uncommon for a playoff team to not have its coach under contract beyond that game, but it doesn’t seem to bother anyone internally – mostly, I assume, because they know Garrett is not going anywhere. I would bet a handshake agreement is already in place and they might not want to announce it while the team is still in action because of the media storm that would invite. Linehan, on the other hand, is likely to get prominent mention for his fantastic work this season and I can definitely see a scenario where he gets another chance to run a team if that is what he desires. If not, his OC spot is secured here of course. I am also interested in Marinelli’s situation and Will McClay. When you win, people look at your guys. It has been a while since that happened around here. The pure definition of a “good problem”.

Question: while I feel like the Cowboys are a different team this year, can you reassure me that the team we all remember from recent years won’t resurface in the playoffs?

Bob Sturm: As far as I am concerned, from here on out, we get assurances of nothing. This is the joy/pain of the NFL playoffs. If you lose, it has nothing to do with past years, but they are all tied together in the national narrative. These are not best-of-7 like the other sports where you are entitled to a bad day or two without your season ending. In the NFL, you get 3 hours to prove you belong or you go home. And then, if you string 3 wins together you are in the Super Bowl. It is truly anyone’s game from here on in. If you are in the playoffs, you have a chance. So, no, I have no promises to make, but i bet the Cowboys (and Lions) both appreciate how difficult it is to be here. The Lions have played 1 playoff game since 1999. The Cowboys have won 1 playoff game since 1996. These are rare heights for the men on the field.

Question: Will the Detroit coaching history with Linehan & Marinelli benefit the Cowboys or motivate the Lions?

Bob Sturm: Good question. I am not sure it will impact the game much at all given that Marinelli has been gone a long time. But, Linehan’s hand on Stafford and Romo is obvious to me. I think Stafford has had a very disappointing year without him and Romo has played his best football with him. I think Scott Linehan is a very smart man and excellent coordinator.

Question: If we end up in NFC Champ game in Seattle, and it comes down to a Bailey FG to win it, don’t you want to trot Romo out there to hold? Imagine the full circle career storyline. Affleck plays Romo in the movie.

Bob Sturm: I like your style. If the Cowboys get to a spot where they are playing the Seattle Seahawks for a chance to go to the Super Bowl, the internet may explode. Talk about perfect symmetry and movie scripts. It would be amazing. But, the Lions need our focus and attention.

Question: Will Marinelli try a different D scheme for Megatron this time? The last time the Boys played this time, Megatron light up the scoreboard.

Bob Sturm: Well, I think we will start with the idea that Jakar Hamilton and Jeff Heath were the Cowboys safeties at the end of that game. Heath played 81 snaps that day with BW Webb and Ernie Sims also playing a ton. In other words, I think Rod Marinelli and a full strength secondary will have some ideas, but Megatron is a stud and will get his. Just not 329.

Question: Should Suh be playing in this game?

Bob Sturm: Complicated case, he is. In a vacuum, I did not see his issue last Sunday as the type that causes a suspension. I thought that was a fine. But, man, with Raiola and Suh, the issues are they have rap sheets that are lengthy and they never seem to fully get it. Detroit and their reputation of dirty play was something that the franchise and their old coach Jim Schwartz seemed to like – you know, we are the new Raiders or Bad Boy Pistons which seems to play pretty well in that city – but, it seems to have made their franchise look awful rudderless. I think Suh is the best DL short of JJ Watt and I think he is an amazing player. I also think that making the league think he is nuts is not bad for his business because it scares the guy in front of him. So, that is a long answer, but in short, I think the NFL got it right even though I think he has had about a dozen instances where he crossed the line of clean play in his career and therefore has earned his reputation.

Question: With the success of the ‘boys, do you see teams eyeing offensive linemen more in the draft?

Bob Sturm: Maybe, but the Cowboys didn’t start this trend. Just recently, you could examine the drafts in San Francisco, Seattle, and even Detroit and see that teams are always trying to make their OL better. It doesn’t get the headlines, but it does get the results. Investing up front is still the key to football. I think what makes the Cowboys special is that they went 1st-1st-1st and then hit on all 3. The Lions, Vikings, Eagles, and Bears will all tell you that just because you take OL high, doesn’t mean they can play well. You need to invest in the right guys and the odds of hitting 3 HRs in 3 ABs are very long. The Cowboys should be credited more for that.

Question: What will be the mix of fans Sunday? 10% or so of Detroit fans?

Bob Sturm: Detroit sports fans are all over the metroplex and when the Red Wings and Tigers come to town, they always represent. So, I would say it is safe to say that those locals are not going to miss the chance to see a rare Lions playoff game live. Hopefully, Cowboys fans are less likely to sell playoff tickets, though.

Question: Within the NFL where do you rank the Cowboys?

Bob Sturm: As in 2014 playoffs? I would say they are the best team that is playing on Wild Card weekend. The Top 4 teams (those with byes) would all be considered better, so that makes them 5th or so? But, don’t think that doesn’t mean they can beat those ahead of them. it is just a massive, massive advantage to having a bye week and having to play one less game to get to the Super Bowl. Teams with byes have to win just 2 games to get to the Super Bowl. And think about this – if Green Bay had beaten the Bills 3 weeks back, the Packers would have been #1 and Dallas #2, with Seattle #3. That one game changed everything, including the Cowboys not getting a bye.

Question: Regarding the Playoff Bye … for this Cowboy team this year, are they better off playing every week with their foot on the gas, or would a week off with rest have been better? I like what I have seen in the last 6 meaningless qtrs. I don’t want to lose that with a week off.

Bob Sturm: History shows that the vast majority of Super Bowl teams had bye weeks. I don’t think that can be a coincidence. I realize momentum discussions are big and we can never shake Cabo from our heads, but rest is always better than even an easy playoff game. And this Detroit game won’t be easy. It will take a toll.

Question: How does the Defense contain Megatron, without letting Golden Tate do things we hate him for?

Bob Sturm: Lots of zone, lots of relentless pass rush. The Lions are not the best in pass protection and Stafford looks feeble under duress. His accuracy is not his strength and they can get awful 1-dimensional on you. They have to get pressure up front and the rest falls into place. But, you won’t stop those dudes, especially on turf. You just want to slow them down.

Question: How does the Cowboys running game stack up against the Detroit City defense?

Bob Sturm: Power versus power. The Lions run defense is legit and there is no way around that. They only had 2 games where the opponent rushed for over 90 yards and last week was one of them. But, the Cowboys are committed and powerful themselves. If you want to watch the matchup of the game, watch the G-C-G for the Cowboys versus the interior of the Lions. Martin vs Suh, yes, but even more so with those LBs – Levy is very good – shooting gaps and blowing up zone plays. This should be fun.

Question: Tell us about that Lions OL who was hurt last week and may be limited on Sunday.

Bob Sturm: Larry Warford is their Right Guard and was a pick in the early 3rd round in 2013. When people say you shouldn’t take guards or centers in the 1st round, they are talking about the guys you can get in the 3rd like Warford. I know nobody in Dallas would entertain this idea, but if they took Warford over Escobar in 2013, then they don’t need Zach Martin in 2014 in round 1. Warford is great and will be for many years. He pulls on those G-Power plays and is a beast. But, he hurt his knee in pass protection in Green Bay on a 4th Down and may not be able to play. They have a kid in Travis Swanson who played center last week for Raiola for his suspension who may play RG for Warford this week. Swanson is a 3rd rounder from Arkansas who looks good, too, but to play them without Warford and maybe Nick Fairley is a big advantage in the trenches for Dallas. The Lions haven’t been the same since Fairley went out in Week 8 up front. Still really good, but not as dominating.

Question: What do the Lions have to do to pull the upset?

Bob Sturm: Just have Stafford play a great game on a big stage. He lacks consistency for me and up there, nobody wants to complain because he is the best QB they have had in 50 years, but he can be so much better if he would be coached harder. His fundamentals are not tight and his multiple arm angles are often celebrated, but I think they lead to his inaccuracy issues. He is tough as nails and a solid leader, but I wish he was better than he is. That said, in a 1-game playoff, he can absolutely win the game for them and is capable of doing just that. Don’t sleep on this opponent.

Question: Should we be running the ball less on early downs to account for the Lions defensive strengths?

Bob Sturm: I don’t think so. At least don’t change the look. It is all tied together. You have tendencies and the opponent responds. But, then you counter those tendencies with play action and hit them over the top. Make the defense respond to you and believe in what got you here. Don’t look at a few short runs and consider changing everything about what makes you successful. Do what you do.

Question: Do you think Mincey added a physicality and intensity to the defense that was lacking with DeMarcus Ware? It seems to have added a no intimidation mentality to a team that was often soft.

Bob Sturm: I don’t want to compare him to Ware. Ware is a legend and a hall of famer and it bothers me that people who watched his whole career think he was lacking of anything. But, Mincey has been an amazing addition and really important this whole operation. He cost $3m for 2 seasons and has been worth every penny. Love his work rate and his relentless attacks. He is just the veteran you want teaching young players how to play.

Question: Based on DET style of defense, do you think Dez only gets short to intermediate targets?

Bob Sturm: Yes. I would watch the safeties and take a chance if you can, but Detroit doesn’t do much of that. They play Cover-2 shell all day and they won’t give you much of a numbers advantage on the deep shots because they know they can stop your run with 6. We shall see, but this is why they do so well versus Rodgers usually, because his big shots to Nelson are never there.

Question: How many of our linebackers would you resign? I know the cap is tight, but with the violence of that position and their individual injuries histories, it seems like we need them all just to make it through a season.

Bob Sturm: I need McClain back and Lee. Then, Durant and Carter are likely going to have to decide who wants to stay. Neither get big bids, but I need one of them so I might put a deal out there and the first one to take it gets it. But, that is low priority. I go to camp next year with McClain, Durant/Hitchens, and Lee as my 3 starters, then I have the other in reserve and likely pick yet another LB in the draft.

Question: Bob, if the Cowboys can somehow run the table and make it to the Super Bowl…is there really any team in the AFC that we would worry about?

Bob Sturm: wow, man. Yes, if you make the Super Bowl, you should be concerned that the other team in the Super Bowl is going to be good. They also will have needed to win several playoff games to get there. Enjoy the ride.

Question: I know the Draft is over 4 months away, and a decision on Demarco Murray would have to come well before that. But, do you think Todd Gurley’s knee injury could cause him to fall to the bottom of the first round and into the Cowboys’ lap?

Bob Sturm: That is possible for sure. I think this is the perfect draft for the Cowboys to say goodbye to DeMarco if they wish. I hope they get him to stay, but having said that, the RBs in April are deep. Melvin Gordon, Gurley, Duke Johnson, Tevin Coleman, Ameer Abdullah, Jay Ajayi, Mike Davis, and TJ Yeldon are all in the mix in the Top 100 picks. This is a good RB draft.

Question: Is B Carr really that bad? Or is this a product of shoving him into a zone based system that he was unproven at to begin with? Lately they have been manning up more and I think we see Carr improving a little. TB did this to Revis and thought he was through. Now we see how great he is in NE. (Not comparing Carr and Revis a as players, just an example.) Is there anything to this?

Bob Sturm: Sure, but personally, I think the overall view of Carr has been too harsh. He has been solid in most scenarios but his contract is coloring his perception as being awful. I am not saying he is close to flawless, but we have seen brutal corner play and he is a few levels above that. That said, his contract may not allow him to see out his deal here in Dallas. He really looked bad against Maclin in both games, but beyond that, I haven’t hated his season like so many other people seem to have.
 
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