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NFL playoff fallers in 2020: Ranking the biggest busts, including the Cowboys, Vikings and Texans
Bill BarnwellESPN Staff Writer
If an NFL team is out of the playoff picture in Week 7, it's probably not going to make its way back in by January. Last year, 10 of the 12 teams that were in playoff positions as we entered Week 7 made it into the postseason. The only exceptions were the Raiders (who missed out on a wild-card berth after the 2-4 Titans went on a run) and the Cowboys (who were 3-3 and ahead of the Eagles with an identical record on a tiebreaker). There will be more uncertainty as we move to the 14-team format this postseason, but if a team is in now, it's generally going to be in the playoffs.
Some teams that looked to be "in" a couple of months ago can't say the same. Enough time has already passed for a few playoff favorites to have cut themselves out of the postseason picture. In some cases, their declines seemed predestined before the season. In others, few people saw their problems until the season started to play out on the field.
Let's look into the teams that have seen their playoff chances fall most drastically since the season began. I'll use the playoff projections from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), and I'll start with a team that seems to be rapidly coming apart in the NFC North ...
Dallas Cowboys (2-4)
Preseason playoff chances: 70.9%Current playoff chances: 24.7%
Difference: -46.2%
Teams on this list aren't typically still in first place, but the Cowboys and this season's NFC East are a delightfully awful exception to that rule. Despite the fact that Dallas is a half-game ahead of Philadelphia for first in the league's worst division, FPI says the injury-riddled Eagles are favorites to win the East with a projection of 6.2 wins. The Cowboys are projected to win 5.6 games, and the only game FPI favors them to win over the remainder of the season is their home matchup against Washington in Week 12.
Now, it's fair to say that the two teams that were expected to compete for the NFC East title have both been ripped apart by injuries. It has just happened in different ways. For the Eagles, the concentration of injuries on offense has been scary. By the end of Sunday's game against the Ravens, they were down to two of their original offensive starters, quarterback Carson Wentz and center Jason Kelce. This depth chart doesn't even include Jason Peters, who re-signed with the team and suffered a toe injury in between the time this was compiled and Sunday.
The Cowboys have seen their stars picked apart. They have operated with a stars-and-scrubs-style roster construction for most of the past two decades, and the best years have come when their stars have stayed healthy. If you look at their July 1 roster, there are 11 players who might have been considered stars, with a 12th added when they signed edge rusher Everson Griffen. If they were going to compete for a Super Bowl title, as many of those 12 players as possible needed to stay healthy and play well.
Through six weeks, I can count two players who can say they were able to pull that off: wide receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, and even Gallup has dealt with drops. Six of the 12 have suffered injuries, including defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, linebacker Leighton Vander Esch, quarterback Dak Prescott and the team's three best offensive linemen, Tyron Smith, La'el Collins and Zack Martin. While rookie wideout CeeDee Lamb and veteran pass-rusher Aldon Smith have impressed, the other four players simply haven't been very good.
Three of them are defenders. The veteran defensive line duo of DeMarcus Lawrence and Griffen hasn't thrived. Griffen, who has already changed his technique to try to get back to what worked in Minnesota, has seen his pass rush win rate fall from 14.3% over the past two seasons to just 7.7%, a mark that ranks 98th in the league. He has 1.5 sacks, 4 quarterback knockdowns and 2 tackles for loss in six games, and his one full sack was a coverage sack of Matt Ryan. It has been tougher for the 32-year-old Griffen as a player on a new team, but the Cowboys undoubtedly expected more from the former Vikings star.
Lawrence, who had the sixth-largest cap hit of any defender in the league before Dallas restructured his deal in September, has one sack, one knockdown and one tackle for loss in six games. His sack was more consequential, given that it produced a Daniel Jones fumble and a defensive touchdown, and Lawrence has been playing through a knee injury, but the Cowboys just aren't in a position where they can get by without him playing like a star. The Cardinals took advantage of Lawrence on Monday night by running straight at his vacated gap for a 22-yard gain in the third quarter.
Linebacker Jaylon Smith is the third defender, and he has been a disaster. While the hope was that the return of Vander Esch on Monday might give the former Notre Dame star some help, Smith wasn't much better against the run. The Cardinals went after him on a fourth-and-1 quarterback keeper for 10 yards and a first down, trusting that Kyler Murray would be able to beat him to the edge. On a 20-yard gain in the third quarter, with Smith still seemingly trying to communicate responsibilities to his teammates at the snap, running back Kenyan Drake took a simple inside draw and ran right past a flat-footed Smith. And on the 69-yard run that put an exclamation point on things for Arizona, Smith was bulldozed out of his gap by Cardinals center Mason Cole, with Drake cutting into the vacated lane and running upfield for an easy score.
The fourth player is running back Ezekiel Elliott, who might be the most damaging Dallas player of them all. Heading into Monday night's game, he told ESPN's Lisa Salters that he wasn't worried about his fumbling issues and didn't think he was going to fumble again over the rest of the season. He then fumbled on consecutive possessions in the first half, with the Cardinals turning those into 14 points.
By any measure, Elliott simply hasn't been very good this season. He's hitting career lows in yards per carry (4.1) and yards per reception (6.4), and while it's easy to chalk that up to the injuries along the offensive line, he is being paid like a transcendent runner who is supposed to get more than whatever the offensive line blocks. Elliott is averaging 0.16 yards above expectation per the NFL Next Gen Stats, which ranks 21st in the league.
Even if he was playing up to expectations, fumbling five times in six games will destroy a running back's value. Fumbles have been a problem for Elliott in the past -- he fumbled five times in 2016 and six times in 2018 -- but fumbling five times in six games is disastrous. No running back has fumbled more than five times across the first six games of the season since the merger, with Elliott joining a list that includes seasons from Jamal Anderson, Stephen Davis, Todd Gurley, Travis Henry, Chris Perry and Steve Slaton.
Fumbles by Elliott and Prescott have cost the Cowboys wins, because teams have been ruthless when they've taken over the football. As a team, the Cowboys have lost nine fumbles on offense this season. Opposing teams have turned those opportunities into eight touchdowns and a field goal. This doesn't include the muffed kickoff against the Seahawks that resulted in a safety. Even without factoring in what teams do once they get the football after these turnovers, the Cowboys have cost themselves more than a full win by ESPN's win expectancy model with fumbles this season, more than any team in the league. Meanwhile, the Dallas defense has the league's lowest turnover rate on a per-drive basis.
It's possible that the Cowboys could have overcome sloppy play if they were healthy, or overcome the injuries to their stars if they were a deep, well-coached football team. As it is, they're neither. They still have a playoff shot given how bad the rest of the NFC East looks, but this team doesn't do anything right and hasn't for most of the season.
Scot
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And the only one that is still on the team is Cooper who we gave up a #1 for
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Sure I do. But there's NO way the Tuna would install a totally new scheme with totally new terminology and language, all at once piecemeal without training camp and preseason! So it's not even in context.
You misunderstand my point, still. I'm not blaming just the one thing. I am saying that if they ran the 4-3 stack defense and continued with their regular coverage scheme, keeping it simple and utilitarian with the personnel we have, we wouldn't be nearly this bad in giving up points! In fact we have NEVER been this bad in giving up points. Ever!
You think the scheme was bad before, but it was suited to the personnel we have. This hybrid one that is a gadget is not suited to the personnel and no, they haven't had time to learn it.
This does not in any way have me saying our guys are good, this does not in any way have me saying they're not dogging it.
You don't understand it's all of the above, not just the one thing. That's my point. But the scheme change and the terminology change without the normal 8 weeks to fucking learn it, IS the magnifier of the problem you already had. Which is, marginal talent at best.
We don't spend any money on player personnel for the D. And those chickens have come home to roost.
Your job as a coaching staff is to put your players in the best situation for them to succeed. You have to keep it simple and You HAVE to get their buy-in to what you're selling. This is basic stuff right out of Jimmy Johnson's mouth.
Our guys haven't bought in, they are not talented enough to perform the tasks being asked of them, and they feel put upon by the nonsense. They also, don't have the character to overcome it regardless. I challenge their very manhood and always have. But this shit of changing everything without any time to fucking learn it, is the gasoline on the already existing dumpster fire if you want to call it one.
We finished 11th in the league last year giving up 20 points per game. I'll take that every damn year without hesitation. Right now we're 32nd in the league, (that's LAST) giving up 36 points per game. We didn't get that collapse over just the one thing.
It ain't the one thing and I never said it was. At any time.
Jerseycowboysfan
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The best photo of him is when OBJ made that stupid one handed catch on us ( which I saw firsthand at MetLife) . He looked so helpless falling down .
Jerseycowboysfan
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Oh boy oh boy oh boy ... where do I begin . I’ll start by saying we have a chance here. Washington isn’t a good football team but!! they do play some halfway good defense and always seem to somehow get pressure on our QB’s. This offensive line isn’t ready for this . Dalton will be pressured . I see a few more turnovers and I tight loss. I see a big day for McLaughrin. ( take him in fantasy ) . My eyes are on this sheagles / smurfs game tonight . You heard it hear first .. the winner of this game I think has the best chance on winning the NFC East . ( bold statement )
theoneandonly
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Cameron Erving starting at LT Sunday. Cant say that inspires confidence in me. I am expecting shit show episode #7.
Maveric
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Not so bold in my view. So far this season Philly's come closest to having their shit together on anything resembling a regular basis. Our problems are numerous and well documented, The Football Team has issues at quarterback that are killer to playoff chances, and the Giants have the Clapper. You've almost got to consider Philly the favorites at this point until someone else can make a case otherwise.