Polian on GM's and 1st round picks

[dbair1967]

Just heard him on NFL Live, he said 1st round picks have about a 50/50 success rate, and that the best GM's "hit .550-.565" on them. Pretty sure his definition meant "bust or not"

Got me to thinking about our first round history since Jones bought the team.

89 Aikman- hit
90 E Smith- hit
91 Maryland and Harper- hit and hit
92 K Smith and R Jones- hit and miss
93 None
94 Carver- miss
95 None
96 None
97 LaFleur- miss, though probably due to back injury
98 Ellis- hit
99 Ekuban- miss
00 None
01 None
02 R Williams- hit: debatable by some, but he was a multiple probowler so hit
03 Newman- hit
04 None
05 Ware and Spears- hit and hit. Spears might be debatable, but he's been a pretty dependable starter and isnt a "bust"
06 Carpenter- miss
07 Spencer- miss...might be debatable, but he's been more down than up. Not a bust but should be better
08 Jones and Jenkins- hit on both. Jones' injuries make this debatable but when healthy he has been good
09 None
10 Bryant -hit
11 T Smith -hit

Thats 20 first round picks. Hits would be 14 out of 20 by my guessing, and even if you changed guys like Spears and F Jones to misses, they'd still be at 60%.

One thing that would worsen the % is if you considered how bad trading down in 1995 and 1996 panned out for us though. They passed on very good players to move down for guys who were clearly awful

 

[Sheik]

Look at that list again, but first cover up 89-93.

 

[Theebs]

If only the draft was only 1 round long.

 

[cmd34]

Look at that list again, but first cover up 89-93.

Take out the Jimmy years and the Parcells years and it really explains a lot.

 

[Theebs]

Take out the Jimmy years and the Parcells years and it really explains a lot.

Last night babe and bill jones did the top picks in each round under Jerry and it was similar. They both remarked on that like yea it is what it is.

 

[dbair1967]

Take out the Jimmy years and the Parcells years and it really explains a lot.

True, although there is nothing wrong with the last two IMO

 

[marionbarberthe4th]

Felix jones 4 career td's taken ahead of 4 pro-bowl rb's and a 2000 yard rusher

TOTAL HIT

 

[dbair1967]

Felix jones 4 career td's taken ahead of 4 pro-bowl rb's and a 2000 yard rusher

TOTAL HIT

I see 10

He hasnt been a bad player at all. He's been hurt alot unfortunately.

He's averaged over 5 .0 yds per carry for his career and he's caught 81 passes the past two seasons.

Maybe had he went elsewhere he wouldnt have been so injury prone, who knows.

 

[Cr122]

Felix Jones is good in Madden. Not so much in real football.

Sorry, dbair.

 

[Rock Slamdance]

I don't worry about who we should have picked instead of Felix. If we had taken Johnson, we would have found a way to make him average.

 

[ThoughtExperiment]

Yeah, how are Felix and Jenkins -- and Spears -- hits but Spencer is a miss?

Speaking of Polian, though, saw him and Parcells on ESPN yesterday talking about this. Parcells' draft special is tonight, so that'll be good stuff. Seeing his draft board last year was pretty fascinating.

 

[Midswat]

What argument are you trying to make, dbair?

 

[dbair1967]

What argument are you trying to make, dbair?

dont worry about it, it'd probably go over your head anyway

 

[dbair1967]

Yeah, how are Felix and Jenkins -- and Spears -- hits but Spencer is a miss?

.

Because I think when healthy Felix has always been a good player. Spears hasnt been a great player, but has been consistent.

Spencer has one half season of excellent play, otherwise just a handful of decent games. He is the model of inconsistency IMO. He should be better than he is. There's also no questioning Jones' or Spears' work ethic or commitment, whereas Spencer has even publicly admitted he doesnt focus or try all the time.

 

[Sheik]

You have to count the 2 1sts given up for Galloway and the 1 given up for Williams as misses, IMO.

 

[Midswat]

dont worry about it, it'd probably go over your head anyway

The sad thing is, you're probably thought by posting this that it would make Jerry look better.

lol

 

[Sheik]

Jerry drafted Joey Galloway in the top 5 two years in a row.

Idiot.

 

[dbair1967]

The sad thing is, you're probably thought by posting this that it would make Jerry look better.

lol

Yeah, thats exactly what it was.

Dope

 

[Jon88]

Because I think when healthy Felix has always been a good player. Spears hasnt been a great player, but has been consistent.

Spencer has one half season of excellent play, otherwise just a handful of decent games. He is the model of inconsistency IMO. He should be better than he is. There's also no questioning Jones' or Spears' work ethic or commitment, whereas Spencer has even publicly admitted he doesnt focus or try all the time.

This will probably be his best season ever since he's playing for the other 31 teams watching.

 

[ThoughtExperiment]

Because I think when healthy Felix has always been a good player. Spears hasnt been a great player, but has been consistent.

Spencer has one half season of excellent play, otherwise just a handful of decent games. He is the model of inconsistency IMO. He should be better than he is. There's also no questioning Jones' or Spears' work ethic or commitment, whereas Spencer has even publicly admitted he doesnt focus or try all the time.

Meh, I don't think Felix and Jenkins are necessarily misses, but Spears hasn't been better than Spencer. He's probably been worse. He can't even start anymore over a JAG like Coleman. Think we'd franchise him like we did Spencer?

And Spencer said he let up in a few practices, not that he quit during games.