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The former LSU CB is a better pick than either Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
To take or not to take Patrick Peterson with the No. 1 pick. That is the Shakespearian question the Carolina Panthers are wrestling with heading into the 2011 NFL draft.
The reasons not to draft Peterson seem quite compelling. Blaine Gabbert is widely considered to be an elite passing prospect and Cam Newton has a rare set of physical skills. If either of those two is as good as advertised, it could mean a long-range upgrade for a passing offense that ranked dead last in the league in yards per attempt (YPA) last season.
In addition, Carolina's pass defense had some fairly solid statistics in 2010, ranking tied for 16th in pass YPA allowed and tied for 11th in interceptions.
This doesn't seem to bode well for Peterson as a player capable of having the same kind of impact that Gabbert or Newton might, but an in-depth look at the numbers illustrates how he can do as much to improve the club as either of those two -- particularly early on.
Let's start by taking a look at what kind of short-term statistical improvement the Panthers could expect from the quarterbacks in a best-case scenario. And this assumes a lofty goal -- that they'd mimic last year's rookie sensation Sam Bradford and start every game.
Carolina passers averaged 5.4 YPA last season. For the sake of this discussion, the assumption will be made that this number could increase to 6.0 YPA without any quarterbacking upgrade because of better play calling, development of existing talent, etc.
Now let's assume that either Gabbert or Newton could move that total up to 7.0 YPA with his talents. That would put the Panthers right in the middle of the league in this category.
Run-heavy offenses, like the one Carolina is likely to use, tend to average about 500 pass attempts in a season, so adding an extra yard to this category would net Carolina 500 additional yards.
Let's also tally the potential improvement in interceptions thrown. Gabbert and Newton averaged about two-thirds of an interception in every contest in which they faced a team from an FBS automatic qualifying conference. Even if that total moved up to around one per game at the NFL level, it would equal 16 interceptions, which would still be an improvement over the 21 total picks that Panthers quarterbacks threw last season.
Most statisticians place the value of an interception at around 40-50 yards. Let's use the higher amount and say that the reduction of five interceptions would equal about 250 yards of value.
Gabbert and Newton could also add some value on the ground. This is a bit of a tough call because Newton is a much better runner than Gabbert, but since the difference between their passing skills was split, it makes sense to split the difference here, as well. Let's put their rushing totals at a generous Aaron Rodgers-like total of 25 yards per game. Doing that adds about 300 rushing yards over last year's rushing totals by Panthers quarterbacks.
Tally the three areas together (500 yards in passing, 250 in reduced interceptions and 300 in rushing yards) and it equals 1,050 yards of improvement.
Now let's run the same kind of analysis for Peterson.
In the passing-yardage category, rather than using the overall YPA total, let's use a more focused approach of seeing how Peterson might help the individual cornerback YPA totals.
Carolina had three regular cornerbacks last season: Chris Gamble, Richard Marshall and Captain Munnerlyn. Those three allowed 1,500 completion/penalty yards on 181 passes in 2010, or 8.3 YPA.
In a seven-game analysis of his 2010 season (against the Mississippi State Bulldogs, Tennessee Volunteers, Florida Gators, Alabama Crimson Tide, Mississippi Rebels and at the Arkansas Razorbacks and Auburn Tigers), Peterson allowed only 90 yards on 24 targets -- that equates to a Darrelle Revis-like 3.4 YPA.
Let's assume that his YPA total moves up to 6.0 at the NFL level (a 2.3 YPA improvement over Carolina's CBs). If passes at Peterson account for half of the same number of targets in 2011, it would mean a reduction of 209 yards.
Now let's also assume that his closing off one side of the field helps the other cornerbacks by letting the rest of the secondary focus coverage in their direction. If that reduced the rest of the cornerback YPA totals to 7.0, it would mean an additional 90 yards in improvement.
Peterson also brings elite ball hawking skills to the table. If those talents equate to four interceptions (a seemingly reasonable total), it would add another 200 yards of value to his case.
The 40-50 yard value for picks is based on leaguewide averages, but a Peterson interception is quite likely to be returned for more yards than the average (he had 134 yards on four interceptions last year). If he adds an additional 20 yards on average, it would equate to another 80 yards of overall value.
And that doesn't even account for how his coverage could help the rest of the Panthers' secondary snag more interceptions. Three picks is a reasonable number here, so let's add another 150 yards to Peterson's column.
Last but certainly not least, Peterson would also bring his elite skills to the return game. He has said of late that he does not want to handle kickoff returns, so the focus here will be on his value as a punt returner.
Carolina was mediocre in this category last year, averaging only 9.6 yards per return (19th lowest in the league). That was roughly 7 yards per return fewer than the top two punt return teams (the Chicago Bears and Dallas Cowboys). Multiply that yardage total by 36 punt returns (the leaguewide average) and it equals another 252 yards for Peterson.
Tallying up his totals (209+90+200+80+150+252), Peterson would give the Panthers 981 yards in improvement, or roughly 69 yards less than Gabbert or Newton.
That miniscule difference of about 4 yards per game is not nearly enough of a reason for Carolina to pass up the best player in the draft. Given the question marks that surround both quarterbacks, Carolina should not hesitate for a moment to select Peterson.
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
To take or not to take Patrick Peterson with the No. 1 pick. That is the Shakespearian question the Carolina Panthers are wrestling with heading into the 2011 NFL draft.
The reasons not to draft Peterson seem quite compelling. Blaine Gabbert is widely considered to be an elite passing prospect and Cam Newton has a rare set of physical skills. If either of those two is as good as advertised, it could mean a long-range upgrade for a passing offense that ranked dead last in the league in yards per attempt (YPA) last season.
In addition, Carolina's pass defense had some fairly solid statistics in 2010, ranking tied for 16th in pass YPA allowed and tied for 11th in interceptions.
This doesn't seem to bode well for Peterson as a player capable of having the same kind of impact that Gabbert or Newton might, but an in-depth look at the numbers illustrates how he can do as much to improve the club as either of those two -- particularly early on.
Let's start by taking a look at what kind of short-term statistical improvement the Panthers could expect from the quarterbacks in a best-case scenario. And this assumes a lofty goal -- that they'd mimic last year's rookie sensation Sam Bradford and start every game.
Carolina passers averaged 5.4 YPA last season. For the sake of this discussion, the assumption will be made that this number could increase to 6.0 YPA without any quarterbacking upgrade because of better play calling, development of existing talent, etc.
Now let's assume that either Gabbert or Newton could move that total up to 7.0 YPA with his talents. That would put the Panthers right in the middle of the league in this category.
Run-heavy offenses, like the one Carolina is likely to use, tend to average about 500 pass attempts in a season, so adding an extra yard to this category would net Carolina 500 additional yards.
Let's also tally the potential improvement in interceptions thrown. Gabbert and Newton averaged about two-thirds of an interception in every contest in which they faced a team from an FBS automatic qualifying conference. Even if that total moved up to around one per game at the NFL level, it would equal 16 interceptions, which would still be an improvement over the 21 total picks that Panthers quarterbacks threw last season.
Most statisticians place the value of an interception at around 40-50 yards. Let's use the higher amount and say that the reduction of five interceptions would equal about 250 yards of value.
Gabbert and Newton could also add some value on the ground. This is a bit of a tough call because Newton is a much better runner than Gabbert, but since the difference between their passing skills was split, it makes sense to split the difference here, as well. Let's put their rushing totals at a generous Aaron Rodgers-like total of 25 yards per game. Doing that adds about 300 rushing yards over last year's rushing totals by Panthers quarterbacks.
Tally the three areas together (500 yards in passing, 250 in reduced interceptions and 300 in rushing yards) and it equals 1,050 yards of improvement.
Now let's run the same kind of analysis for Peterson.
In the passing-yardage category, rather than using the overall YPA total, let's use a more focused approach of seeing how Peterson might help the individual cornerback YPA totals.
Carolina had three regular cornerbacks last season: Chris Gamble, Richard Marshall and Captain Munnerlyn. Those three allowed 1,500 completion/penalty yards on 181 passes in 2010, or 8.3 YPA.
In a seven-game analysis of his 2010 season (against the Mississippi State Bulldogs, Tennessee Volunteers, Florida Gators, Alabama Crimson Tide, Mississippi Rebels and at the Arkansas Razorbacks and Auburn Tigers), Peterson allowed only 90 yards on 24 targets -- that equates to a Darrelle Revis-like 3.4 YPA.
Let's assume that his YPA total moves up to 6.0 at the NFL level (a 2.3 YPA improvement over Carolina's CBs). If passes at Peterson account for half of the same number of targets in 2011, it would mean a reduction of 209 yards.
Now let's also assume that his closing off one side of the field helps the other cornerbacks by letting the rest of the secondary focus coverage in their direction. If that reduced the rest of the cornerback YPA totals to 7.0, it would mean an additional 90 yards in improvement.
Peterson also brings elite ball hawking skills to the table. If those talents equate to four interceptions (a seemingly reasonable total), it would add another 200 yards of value to his case.
The 40-50 yard value for picks is based on leaguewide averages, but a Peterson interception is quite likely to be returned for more yards than the average (he had 134 yards on four interceptions last year). If he adds an additional 20 yards on average, it would equate to another 80 yards of overall value.
And that doesn't even account for how his coverage could help the rest of the Panthers' secondary snag more interceptions. Three picks is a reasonable number here, so let's add another 150 yards to Peterson's column.
Last but certainly not least, Peterson would also bring his elite skills to the return game. He has said of late that he does not want to handle kickoff returns, so the focus here will be on his value as a punt returner.
Carolina was mediocre in this category last year, averaging only 9.6 yards per return (19th lowest in the league). That was roughly 7 yards per return fewer than the top two punt return teams (the Chicago Bears and Dallas Cowboys). Multiply that yardage total by 36 punt returns (the leaguewide average) and it equals another 252 yards for Peterson.
Tallying up his totals (209+90+200+80+150+252), Peterson would give the Panthers 981 yards in improvement, or roughly 69 yards less than Gabbert or Newton.
That miniscule difference of about 4 yards per game is not nearly enough of a reason for Carolina to pass up the best player in the draft. Given the question marks that surround both quarterbacks, Carolina should not hesitate for a moment to select Peterson.
