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Early 2013 SEC power rankings

January, 8, 2013 Jan 8 11:00AM ET

By Chris Low | ESPN.com

Sure, the 2012 season just ended, but that’s yesterday’s news.

We’ve taken into account several factors in coming up with our early power rankings for next season, including returning starters, promising younger players, momentum heading into the offseason and favorable schedules.

Here we go:

1. Alabama: Can the Crimson Tide make it four national championships in five years? With quarterback AJ McCarron coming back and two of the best young playmakers in the league -- receiver Amari Cooper and running back T.J. Yeldon -- Alabama should be plenty explosive on offense. Replacing Barrett Jones and Chance Warmack in the middle of that offensive line won’t be easy. Speaking of easy, Alabama avoids Florida, Georgia and South Carolina in the East.

2. Texas A&M: The Aggies might have been the hottest team in the country at the end of the 2012 season. Maybe defenses will have a little better handle on Johnny Manziel the second time around, but Johnny Football will have a little better handle on defenses, too. If offensive tackles Luke Joeckel and Jake Matthews return for their senior seasons, look out. Losing Damontre Moore on defense will hurt, but the Aggies like their young talent.

3. South Carolina: The Head Ball Coach has two quarterbacks he likes now, even though Connor Shaw will be out for the spring after having foot surgery. Dylan Thompson was Mr. Clutch for the Gamecocks against Clemson and against Michigan in the Outback Bowl. The Gamecocks are losing some key players on defense, but they return the most dynamic defensive player in the college game -- Jadeveon Clowney.

4. Georgia: The third, fourth and fifth spots were tough. Aaron Murray coming back for his senior season was big for the Bulldogs. There’s no substitute for having that kind of experience at quarterback in this league. Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham will have his hands full retooling the defense with seven starters departing. Plus, Georgia has to prove it can beat South Carolina after losing three in a row to the Gamecocks, and it has a tough start to the 2013 season.

5. Florida: Sometimes bowl games can have too much impact, both good and bad, on where a team starts the next season. The Gators were wretched in their Allstate Sugar Bowl loss to Louisville, and on top of it, they’re losing defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd, safety Matt Elam and tight end Jordan Reed to the NFL draft. They’re still loaded with young talent on defense, but the key will be Jeff Driskel broadening his game at quarterback and the Gators getting better, period, in the passing game.

6. LSU: Who’s not coming out early for the Tigers? They’re losing a record nine underclassmen to the NFL draft, and six of those are on defense. Defensive coordinator John Chavis will be putting a ton of young players on the field next season, so LSU might have to lean more on an offense that came up empty too many times this season during key moments. Quarterback Zach Mettenberger needs a big offseason, and it doesn’t help that LSU has to play Florida and Georgia in the East next season.

7. Vanderbilt: The Commodores have made enough strides under James Franklin that they’ll have to deal with some real expectations in 2013. They finished No. 23 in the final Associated Press poll and bring back a lot of their key players. Receiver Jordan Matthews’ decision to stay in school was a coup for the Commodores. The quarterback battle will be worth watching with Jordan Rodgers graduating, and the defense is in excellent hands with Bob Shoop at the helm.

8. Ole Miss: Did anybody see coming what Hugh Freeze did with Ole Miss’ program in his first season? The Rebels managed seven wins and did it with freshmen and first-year players lining up all over the field. Freeze is also recruiting like gangbusters, so there’s more help on the way. Donte Moncrief is an explosive receiving threat, and if quarterback Bo Wallace can cut down on his turnovers, the Rebels should be even better on offense.

9. Auburn: It’s hard not to be impressed with the staff Gus Malzahn has put together at Auburn. The transition might be a little smoother because Malzahn already has a decent feel for the personnel on the team. He has proved that his offenses are going to score points in bunches. It will be interesting to see if quarterback Kiehl Frazier’s career is rekindled with Malzahn at the controls. New defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson has to find a way to get Auburn’s edge back defensively.

10. Mississippi State: The Bulldogs get Oklahoma State in Houston to open the season, so we should have a pretty good feel for Dan Mullen’s club early. It was just the opposite this past season. Mississippi State feasted on a soft schedule early and then closed the season by losing five of its last six games. Quarterback Tyler Russell’s improvement was promising. But if the Bulldogs are going to make another run at eight wins or more, they will need to make more happen up front defensively.

11. Tennessee: The Vols hope one of the worst runs in school history is behind them. Derek Dooley was fired after losing 14 of his last 16 SEC games, and now it’s Butch Jones’ turn to see if he can get Tennessee pointed in the right direction. The Vols return what should be one of the best offensive lines in the SEC, but just about all of the firepower from the 2012 team is gone, including receivers Justin Hunter and Cordarrelle Patterson. There’s no way the defense can be worse than a year ago.

12. Arkansas: The Bret Bielema era begins at Arkansas, and the Hogs can’t wait to put the 2012 season in their rearview mirror once and for all. They will be starting over on offense with quarterback Tyler Wilson and receiver Cobi Hamilton both leaving, and there are still major questions on defense. Bielema’s track record says he will bring a powerful running game and a stifling defense to the Ozarks, but it will take more than one year.

13. Missouri: Injuries nagged at Missouri all season, particularly on the offensive line. But the bigger problem was that it simply didn’t look equipped physically to compete in the SEC. That has to change this offseason. The Tigers will have a new offensive coordinator and will have some key holes to plug on offense. One of the things that helps is that the schedule gets a little easier.

14. Kentucky: New coach Mark Stoops has the toughest job in the SEC. The Wildcats were winless in the SEC this past season and were forced to play a frightening number of younger players. Stoops’ arrival should create some new energy around the program, and surely the Wildcats won’t suffer as many injuries as they did this season. Nonetheless, getting to .500 and getting back to a bowl game for the first time since 2010 will be a stretch for Kentucky.
 
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The tone for the game was set on the second and third plays from scrimmage. McCarron hit wide receiver Kevin Norwood with a 29-yard corner route, and Lacy followed it up with a 10-yard run that featured two missed tackles and a face mask penalty to top it off. That was the story of the day as McCarron spread the ball around on his way to 20 of 28 passing for 264 yards, four touchdowns and a +6.8 overall grade. He hit two more corner routes for big gains, one of which was placed perfectly along the sideline to WR Christion Jones. The other near-perfect pass was a comeback route on a roll out that McCarron put where only WR Amari Cooper could catch it. Of McCarron’s eight incompletions, four were dropped and two were intentionally thrown away. His only real misses came on two deep posts to Cooper that were both inches away from big gains. For the day, McCarron was on point with 24 of his 26 aimed passes for an Accuracy Percentage of 92%.

As for the running backs, Lacy forced a ridiculous 13 missed tackles with 101 of his 140 yards coming after contact. He ran through the defense on his way to a 20-yard touchdown early in the first quarter and he capped off the half by taking a check down and spinning off linebackers Danny Spond and Dan Fox on his way to the end zone. He finished the day at +5.1. Yeldon forced four missed tackles of his own, and 81 of his 108 yards came after contact. He graded at +3.3.

While the offensive line did stellar work, it was Alabama’s playmakers who dominated this game from start to finish.

Mauling at Left Guard

There’s been a lot of hype surrounding left guard Chance Warmack and he lived up to his billing on Monday night with a +6.7 overall grade, including +5.7 as a run blocker. He did a nice job of sealing linebacker Manti Te’o at the second level multiple times in the first half while also having his way with the Notre Dame defensive line. But nothing summed up Warmack’s day like his block on Fox at the 2:47 mark of the third quarter. He pulled around to lead Yeldon through the hole and leveled Fox, taking him to the ground and right out of the play. Warmack surrendered only one pressure on his 30 pass block attempts as he finished his season strong on his way to possible first-round status in the NFL Draft.

Challenging Milliner

Notre Dame was not afraid of All-American cornerback Dee Milliner, but perhaps they should have looked to the other side of the field more often. Milliner got his hands on four passes on his way to a +2.7 coverage grade for the game. Notre Dame went after him on back-to-back plays early in the first quarter as he was matched up with tight end Tyler Eifert. Both fade passes were well thrown, but Milliner got his hand in to move the ball just enough that Eifert was unable to gain control along the sideline. Milliner was later responsible for Alabama’s only interception of the day as he deflected another pass, this time into the hands of free safety HaHa Clinton-Dix who made a circus catch along the sideline. Like Warmack, Milliner has first-round aspirations and this was a fine way to cap off his junior season.

Other Alabama Performances of Note

- Center Barrett Jones played a valiant game given his postgame confession of playing with a lisfranc injury in his foot. He was unable to match the power of Notre Dame nose tackle Louis Nix, but some veteran savvy helped him use Nix’ momentum against him and Jones found ways to seal him off in the running game. Nix certainly won his fair share of the battles, but Jones finished the day at +2.7.

- LB C.J. Mosley picked up four stops.

- RG Anthony Steen was the weak link on the offensive line surrendering three pressures.

- McCarron was pressured on nine of his 29 drop-backs, but he was not sacked or knocked down.



Notre Dame – Three Performances of Note

Not Te’o’s Best

After a season filled with numerous awards and honors, the Manti Te’o Hype Train came to a screeching halt Monday night. Again, we don’t want to crush a player for a poor showing in a one-game sample, but Te’o’s struggles were evident throughout the broadcast and our numbers back up the general perception of his play. He graded at -5.7 overall, with two missed tackles. He was slow and indecisive at the second level where Alabama offensive linemen were easily able to get their hands on him and he was unable to shed and find the ball.

When he did navigate his way through the traffic, he either took a bad angle to the ballcarrier or missed the tackle completely. Notre Dame’s inside linebackers were inexplicably attacking the wrong gaps in the running game that put them in a trail position behind running backs with a speed advantage; not a recipe for success. He had his struggles in the passing game as well where he missed a tackle after a screen pass to Lacy and later found himself biting on play action on the goal line that left tight end Michael Williams wide open for a touchdown.

Te’o is yet another player hoping for a first-round phone call come April, but this was a tough way to go out with the entire league watching.

More Tackling Woes

While a lot of the credit has to go to Lacy for making defenders miss, Notre Dame deserves some blame for their awful tackling display. They finished with 19 missed tackles on the day, with safety Zeke Motta leading the way with six. Motta finished at a game-worst -9.0 for the day from his poor tackling, bad angles, and getting beat in coverage. The Irish had chances to stop the running game, as unblocked defenders swarmed the line of scrimmage with clear shots at the running back, but Motta and others were unable to capitalize. In addition, Spond contributed three missed tackles while CB KeiVarae Russell missed three as well. Not a lot went right for Notre Dame, and poor tackling is right at the top of the list of blunders from Monday night.

Golson to Daniels

Lost in the blowout was some positive play from two redshirt freshmen in quarterback Everett Golson and WR DeVaris Daniels. The chemistry between the two looked strong as Golson made a number of throws to Daniels before his break, and some even came as Golson was under intense pressure. Daniels always seemed to be in the right spot and he finished with 115 yards on six receptions and a +3.5 overall grade. Golson and Daniels were two of the bright spots for Notre Dame, but they were unable to sustain enough offense to keep up with Alabama’s high-powered attack.

Other Notre Dame Performances of Note

- Center Braxston Cave showed great strength by manhandling nose tackle Jesse Williams at the point of attack on one play. Cave finished the day at +3.0 overall, including +1.7 as a run blocker.

- TE Tyler Eifert finished with 61 yards on six receptions, good for a +1.5 grade as a receiver. He stayed in to pass block on seven snaps, surrendering two pressures for a -0.6 pass block grade.

- DE Stephon Tuitt was Notre Dame’s best defender at +0.8.

PFF Game Ball

As great as McCarron was throwing the ball, Lacy gets the nod for his 13 missed tackles forced and 101 yards gained after contact.

Follow Steve on Twitter: @PFF_Steve
 
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