Why it would be surprising if Cowboys didn't reach Super Bowl

By Rick Gosselin , Staff Columnist Contact Rick Gosselinon TwitterRickGosselinDMN

If I was a betting man, which I'm not, I'd bet the Cowboys would be in Houston during Super Bowl week.

I'd also bet that the New England Patriots would be in Houston that week.

I like top seeds in the NFL playoffs.

So does history.

The Cowboys have already clinched the top seed in the NFC with their 13-2 record, rendering Sunday's season finale at Philadelphia meaningless -- if, in fact, setting a franchise-season record with a 14th victory can be deemed meaningless.

The Patriots have a 13-2 record and are sitting on the AFC's top seed heading into the final weekend. They can wrap it up with a victory Sunday at Miami. New England, by the way, is the only team in the NFL that is unbeaten on the road this season. It would mark the sixth time in the Tom Brady era that the Patriots would enter a postseason as the AFC's top seed. That means potentially two home games before boarding an airplane for Houston.

The Cowboys are 7-1 at home and the Patriots 6-2. But one of New England's losses came in October when Brady was sitting out a four-game suspension for his role in Deflategate. Here's another gambling tip -- don't bet against Brady in January. He's 116-19 all time at home for the best winning percentage of any quarterback in NFL history at 85.9.
But beyond Brady and Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, here's why I like the potential for a Cowboys-Patriots Super Bowl matchup. The top two seeds have met in each of the last three Super Bowls and four of the last seven. It was Denver-Carolina in 2015, New England-Seattle in 2014 and Denver-Seattle in 2013. Do you see a pattern developing here?

There's more.

The NFL began seeding its playoff bracket in 1990. At least one of the top seeds has played in 21 of the 26 Super Bowls since then. A top seed has won the Super Bowl 12 times, twice as many as the next seed.

The Cowboys won two of their Lombardi trophies in the Jerry Jones era as top seeds (1993 and 1995). There have been six second seeds win Super Bowls, including the 1992 Cowboys. The Patriots have won two Super Bowls as a top seed (2003 and 2014) and twice more as a second seed (2001 and 2004).

There have been only four No. 4 seeds hoist the Lombardi Trophy, including Baltimore twice, one No. 3 seed (2006 Indianapolis), one No. 5 seed (2007 New York Giants) and two No. 6 seeds (2010 Green Bay and 2005 Pittsburgh).
So the Cowboys or the Patriots or both figure to play for the Lombardi Trophy on the first weekend of February.

Again, if you're going to bet, bet the top half of the bracket. Teams that earned those first-round byes have won 18 of the last 26 Super Bowls. And both the Cowboys and Patriots will have that bye this time around to rest and recuperate rosters that have been battered by a 17-week season.

That should benefit Cowboys defensive linemen Tyrone Crawford, DeMarcus Lawrence and Cedric Thornton, who all sat out Monday's game against Detroit with injuries, and tackle Terrell McClain, who hobbled off the field that night with an ankle injury. Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith also left the Detroit game with a sprained knee and has been ruled out of the finale. He can use the next two weeks off his feet.

But as important as a healthy roster is the home field that the top seed affords the Cowboys. This team has not traveled well since winning its last Super Bowl. The Cowboys have gone on the road five times for playoff games since 1995 and lost them all. Their only three playoff victories since the last Super Bowl came at home -- against Minnesota in 1996, Philadelphia in 2009 and Detroit in 2014.

The safest path to the Super Bowl is at home. The safest path is as a top seed. The Cowboys have both. All Jason Garrett needs to do now is play the hand he's been dealt. It's a winning hand.

Why it WOULDN'T be surprising if the Cowboys didn't reach the Super Bowl

Midswat said:

He's 116-19 all time at home for the best winning percentage of any quarterback in NFL history at 85.9

Keep reading...

MY GAWUD!!!

Midswat said:

Here's another gambling tip -- don't bet against Brady in January. He's 116-19 all time at home for the best winning percentage of any quarterback in NFL history at 85.9.

Keep reading...

This is absolutely astounding. Mind-numbing......I had to do a double take when I read that stat. Pair one of the best QB's in the history of the game with one of the game's greatest head coaches and this is what you get.

yimyammer said:

MY GAWUD!!!

Keep reading...

You beat me to it. That's an incredible stat. I don't know if we'll ever see it again in the history of the NFL.

I still hate Garrett. I still think the guy is a mediocre head coach (and coach in general). But some things are being done right. Is it Linehan? Marinelli? Home run draft picks like Dak and Zek? Defensive players playing way above their head? All the above? It's a perfect storm that has this team set up for a run. Anything short a SB with this type of regular season would be a fail.

But what I'd really like to see is continued success while Dak and Zek are here. The one thing about today's NFL is that fortunes change almost overnight. Carolina, Newton and that D looked the part last year and it seemed like they'd be around for a while only to flop this season. I'd like to think we hit gold with this year's draft but I'm hesitant to go all in with Garrett at the helm.

Midswat said:

Why it WOULDN'T be surprising if the Cowboys didn't reach the Super Bowl

Keep reading...

Exactly what would be surprising about it? They have to overcome the HC and GM. We all know how the movie ends.

belichik playing chess while the rest of the league plays checkers...and garrett plays chutes and ladders.

Midswat said:

Why it WOULDN'T be surprising if the Cowboys didn't reach the Super Bowl

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Hit. Nail. On. Head.

Interesting how the article never mentions our 2007 number one seed, HVA 13-3 team that was one and done. It's happened before.

icup said:

belichik playing chess while the rest of the league plays checkers...and garrett plays chutes and ladders.

Keep reading...

This is the biggest issue. Garrett is a fan of good coaches. He follows their history. He quotes them and he thinks he is replicating their motivational influences, their inspirations and their press conferences. He even thinks he models their philosophies. In his last press conference following the Lion game, he quotes "Coach Belichick". He claims to study Coach K from Duke and supposedly he speaks the former great head coaches on phone quite often.

But for all of this fandom of great coaches, he just doesn't do what they do. He doesn't know how. Would Coach K draw up a game specific play to end a game in desperation. All the time. Has Garrett? No. Over the years he just stands there and sends out personnel to run the same play Dallas has been running in the two minute drill since he brought his offense to the Cowboys. He assumes that the opposing defense will use a prevent defense and he assumes that somehow the defense will allow his WRs to get open.

Garrett has been so naive and a step behind actual coaches that it seems like every game he comes away with a revelation of "what a coach should do". This year has a different feel because there is a lot more strategy going into each series, down and distance and the use of more plays, more players, more formations, etc.

The big issue is Garrett will not leave the offense alone. Listen in the press conference where Garrett is asked about the different phases. He refers to the defense and special teams in third person but the offense is "we". He is not letting go. Dallas is having success Contrary to all the tenets and excuses Garrett has used over the years. But the fear is that he will still try to force his Romo offense that doesn't work into the Dak-Linehan offense that isn't broke.

Jason Garrett: Thoughts After Watching Lions Game Film; Dallas Cowboys - YouTube

Omegasupreme said:

This is the biggest issue. Garrett is a fan of good coaches. He follows their history. He quotes them and he thinks he is replicating their motivational influences, their inspirations and their press conferences. He even thinks he models their philosophies. In his last press conference following the Lion game, he quotes "Coach Belichick". He claims to study Coach K from Duke and supposedly he speaks the former great head coaches on phone quite often.

But for all of this fandom of great coaches, he just doesn't do what they do. He doesn't know how. Would Coach K draw up a game specific play to end a game in desperation. All the time. Has Garrett? No. Over the years he just stands there and sends out personnel to run the same play Dallas has been running in the two minute drill since he brought his offense to the Cowboys. He assumes that the opposing defense will use a prevent defense and he assumes that somehow the defense will allow his WRs to get open.

Garrett has been so naive and a step behind actual coaches that it seems like every game he comes away with a revelation of "what a coach should do". This year has a different feel because there is a lot more strategy going into each series, down and distance and the use of more plays, more players, more formations, etc.

The big issue is Garrett will not leave the offense alone. Listen in the press conference where Garrett is asked about the different phases. He refers to the defense and special teams in third person but the offense is "we". He is not letting go. Dallas is having success Contrary to all the tenets and excuses Garrett has used over the years. But the fear is that he will still try to force his Romo offense that doesn't work into the Dak-Linehan offense that isn't broke.

Jason Garrett: Thoughts After Watching Lions Game Film; Dallas Cowboys - YouTube

Keep reading...

And this is what has sobered me up. I can very well see Garrett allowing Linehan to run the offense for the divisional round and maybe the NFC Championship IF we make it there, but if the Cowboys make it to the Super Bowl...FUCK. You know he is going to take over. There is no way he is going to resist and pass up an opportunity to try and match wits against Belicek. What you saw against the Giants is NOTHING. He's going to have Dak out there trying to out duel Brady through the air. Keep Dak contained --- Patriots' defense will not have to worry about that, Garrett will insist upon that himself, which means when there is no one open and an obvious lane for a 1st doqwn, Dak will not be aloud to run for it, but simply throw the ball away. Garrett would rather Dak throw an in complete pass than run for a 1st down. And the Cowboys will lose.

It will not surprise that in that game, Zeke will get no more than 15 touches. And when it's all said and done, the talk that will dominate the news cycle will be why the Cowboys abandoned the run, abandoned the very thing that got them there all year. And he will give some bullshit word salad excuse during his press conference.

That's how it's going to go down.

LAZARUS_LOGAN said:

And this is what has sobered me up. I can very well see Garrett allowing Linehan to run the offense for the divisional round and maybe the NFC Championship IF we make it there, but if the Cowboys make it to the Super Bowl...FUCK. You know he is going to take over. There is no way he is going to resist and pass up an opportunity to try and match wits against Belicek. What you saw against the Giants is NOTHING. He's going to have Dak out there trying to out duel Brady through the air. Keep Dak contained --- Patriots' defense will not have to worry about that, Garrett will insist upon that himself, which means when there is no one open and an obvious lane for a 1st doqwn, Dak will not be aloud to run for it, but simply throw the ball away. Garrett would rather Dak throw an in complete pass than run for a 1st down. And the Cowboys will lose.

It will not surprise that in that game, Zeke will get no more than 15 touches. And when it's all said and done, the talk that will dominate the news cycle will be why the Cowboys abandoned the run, abandoned the very thing that got them there all year. And he will give some bullshit word salad excuse during his press conference.

That's how it's going to go down.

Keep reading...

That and the patriots or whoever the opponent is, will run run run the ball with impunity, all day.

We won't make the Super Bowl because of our shit defense... Falcons and Packers will tear our D apart

It wouldn't surprise me one bit. But I'd be extremely disappointed.