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Quarterback Records When Their Team Allows 21+ Points
by CHASE STUART on MARCH 24, 2015
in DATA DUMP, QUARTERBACKS
Back in November, Cian Fahey tweeted me a simple question: “What is Alex Smith’s record in games where his D gives up 21 or more points?”
I made a note to run the numbers in the off-season, and guess what? It’s the off-season. Smith now holds a career record of 7-38-1 (including a 1-1 mark in the postseason) when his team allows 21 or more points. That’s really bad, as it turns out. In fact, among quarterbacks who started such a game last year, only Ryan Fitzpatrick (5-43-0) has a worse career record.
How am I defining a “good” or “bad” record? Well, that’s somewhat subjective. But you might be surprised to learn that over history, teams have won about 25% of their games when allowing 21+ points, and there hasn’t been quite as much variation as you would expect. So while it would probably help a little to adjust for era, it’s not as necessary as I would have originally thought.
Here, take a look:
The best quarterback by this metric? Tom Brady. Brady has played in 106 games (including playoffs) where the Patriots allowed at least 21 points. In those games, Brady is 60-46, for a 0.566 winning percentage. Given that we would “expect” Brady to win 25% of those 106 games — that is, 26.5 games — Brady has exceeded expectations by 33.5 wins. All the usual caveats apply: wins should not be applied to the quarterback, there are lots of reasons not to read too much into the data, etc. But sometimes, it’s just good to do a data dump, even if you only find the information useful for trivia purposes.
1. Tom Brady - 56.6% (win %), 33.5 Wins Over Expectancy (active)
2. Peyton Manning - 43.9%, 28 WOE (active)
3. Brett Favre - 36.2%, 16.75 WOE
4. Joe Montana - 50%, 16 WOE
5. John Elway - 39.2%, 14.5 WOE
6. Norm Van Brocklin - 46.3%, 14.5 WOE
7. Randall Cunningham - 44.3%, 13.5 WOE
8. Aaron Rodgers - 47.2%, 11.75 WOE (active)
9. Drew Brees - 34.7%, 11.75 WOE (active)
10. Johnny Unitas - 39.2%, 11.25 WOE
11. Philip Rivers - 39%, 10.75 WOE (active)
12. Kurt Warner - 40%, 10.5 WOE
13. Tony Romo - 40.3%, 10.25 WOE (active)
14. Daryle Lamonica - 54.3%, 10.25 WOE
15. Y.A. Tittle - 37.7%, 9.25 WOE
Other actives in top 25:
22. Ben Roethlisberger
25. Matt Ryan
As for Smith? There are 121 quarterbacks who started at least 40 games where their teams allowed 21+ points. Smith has the 8th worst winning percentage among that group, behind David Carr (0.065), Archie Manning (0.068), Fitzpatrick (0.104), Lamar McHan (0.116), Eddie LeBaron (0.120), Ron Jaworski (0.130), and Jeff George (0.156).
http://www.footballperspective.com/quarterback-records-when-their-team-allows-21-points/
by CHASE STUART on MARCH 24, 2015
in DATA DUMP, QUARTERBACKS
Back in November, Cian Fahey tweeted me a simple question: “What is Alex Smith’s record in games where his D gives up 21 or more points?”
I made a note to run the numbers in the off-season, and guess what? It’s the off-season. Smith now holds a career record of 7-38-1 (including a 1-1 mark in the postseason) when his team allows 21 or more points. That’s really bad, as it turns out. In fact, among quarterbacks who started such a game last year, only Ryan Fitzpatrick (5-43-0) has a worse career record.
How am I defining a “good” or “bad” record? Well, that’s somewhat subjective. But you might be surprised to learn that over history, teams have won about 25% of their games when allowing 21+ points, and there hasn’t been quite as much variation as you would expect. So while it would probably help a little to adjust for era, it’s not as necessary as I would have originally thought.
Here, take a look:
The best quarterback by this metric? Tom Brady. Brady has played in 106 games (including playoffs) where the Patriots allowed at least 21 points. In those games, Brady is 60-46, for a 0.566 winning percentage. Given that we would “expect” Brady to win 25% of those 106 games — that is, 26.5 games — Brady has exceeded expectations by 33.5 wins. All the usual caveats apply: wins should not be applied to the quarterback, there are lots of reasons not to read too much into the data, etc. But sometimes, it’s just good to do a data dump, even if you only find the information useful for trivia purposes.
1. Tom Brady - 56.6% (win %), 33.5 Wins Over Expectancy (active)
2. Peyton Manning - 43.9%, 28 WOE (active)
3. Brett Favre - 36.2%, 16.75 WOE
4. Joe Montana - 50%, 16 WOE
5. John Elway - 39.2%, 14.5 WOE
6. Norm Van Brocklin - 46.3%, 14.5 WOE
7. Randall Cunningham - 44.3%, 13.5 WOE
8. Aaron Rodgers - 47.2%, 11.75 WOE (active)
9. Drew Brees - 34.7%, 11.75 WOE (active)
10. Johnny Unitas - 39.2%, 11.25 WOE
11. Philip Rivers - 39%, 10.75 WOE (active)
12. Kurt Warner - 40%, 10.5 WOE
13. Tony Romo - 40.3%, 10.25 WOE (active)
14. Daryle Lamonica - 54.3%, 10.25 WOE
15. Y.A. Tittle - 37.7%, 9.25 WOE
Other actives in top 25:
22. Ben Roethlisberger
25. Matt Ryan
As for Smith? There are 121 quarterbacks who started at least 40 games where their teams allowed 21+ points. Smith has the 8th worst winning percentage among that group, behind David Carr (0.065), Archie Manning (0.068), Fitzpatrick (0.104), Lamar McHan (0.116), Eddie LeBaron (0.120), Ron Jaworski (0.130), and Jeff George (0.156).
http://www.footballperspective.com/quarterback-records-when-their-team-allows-21-points/
