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Interior Line Will Struggle in 2012Jonathan Bales 08/16/2012 12:31 PM


It’s a crucial 3rd and 1 in the middle of the fourth quarter. Up by one point, the Cowboys call a strong side dive from a tight formation. The interior linemen all get driven back and the running back gets crushed for a one-yard loss. The ‘Boys are forced to punt.

Sound familiar? Short-yardage running is an underrated and absolutely critical aspect of offensive efficiency. A less-than-dominant running attack can still be valuable if it can consistently convert on 3rd and 4th and short.

Unfortunately, the Cowboys haven’t had an effective short-yardage running game over the years. Last season, the offense converted on 57 percent of third and fourth down rushing plays with one or two yards to go for a first down—good for only 23rd in the NFL. It was just 54 percent (26th) in 2010 and 58 percent (26th) three seasons ago. The lack of short-yardage efficiency is one reason the Cowboys were just 20th in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage in 2011.

The Cowboys’ guards and centers haven’t only been poor run blockers in short-yardage situations, however. Last season, the ‘Boys averaged 4.10 yards-per-carry on all runs behind the interior line, and it was only 3.41 yards-per-carry in 2010.

Free agent guard acquisitions Nate Livings and Mackenzy Bernadeau weren’t much better for their respective teams last year. Panthers running backs totaled 4.34 yards-per-carry when Bernadeau was at the point of attack in 2011 (albeit in limited action), and Bengals running backs averaged 3.98 yards-per-carry behind Livings, according to Pro Football Focus.

And it’s not as if interior line play isn’t important. Heck, the first preseason game was evidence of how poor interior line play can disrupt an offense.

To prove it further, I tracked how teams have historically performed with and without dominant interior line play. Since 2008, teams that have possessed a top 20 guard or center, as graded by PFF, have totaled 9.18 wins per season. Those with a bottom 20 interior lineman have averaged only 7.23—nearly two fewer wins per season. With a sample size of over 2,500 games, that’s a pretty substantial difference. The disparity in team wins is similar for offenses that finished in the top 10 in short-yardage rushing efficiency versus those in the bottom 10.

So what is the team to do this year? In terms of rushing the ball, they might need to get creative. The offense has been sensational on both counters and weak side runs over the past three years, even in short-yardage situations. Actually, the ‘Boys have averaged nearly 5.0 yards-per-carry on weak side runs, with 14.1 percent of those going for 10-plus yards. On counters, Cowboys backs have averaged nearly 7.0 yards-per-rush and almost 20 percent of those have gone for 10 yards or more.

Although unconventional, getting outside in short-yardage situations might be a good move for Dallas. The offense totaled a stout 5.43 yards-per-carry when running behind Tyron Smith last year. Even if defenses eventually catch up and begin to anticipate the Cowboys running behind Smith, I’d take my chances with the Pro Bowl-caliber second-year tackle over Phil Costa, Ronald Leary, or any of the other offensive linemen in Big D.*

Jonathan Bales is the founder of The DC Times. He writes for DallasCowboys.com and the New York Times. He's also the author of Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Dominate Your Draft.

Stay on top of the latest Dallas Cowboys news with NBCDFW.com. Follow NBC DFW on Facebook or have breaking Cowboys news sent directly to your phone with Blue Star SMS alerts. Text "bluestar" to 622339 (NBCDFW) to subscribe, text HELP for more info, and text STOP to end the subscription. Message and data rates may apply.Read more about it here.
 

dbair1967

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I think I saw a stat that said we led the league in YPA rushing up the middle last year. I know thats different than just looking at short yardage 9which we have sucked at for several years) but it is a positive.

As bad as Costa is, I find it hard to believe that if he is the starter again that he would actually be worse than last year. And I do think Livings and Bernadeau will be an improvement over Kosier (who was hurt all last yr) and the rotating 4 guys we had there last yr at the other G spot.

And one positive from the Raider game the other night is the one 3rd and 1 situation we did have, they lined up in a short yardage set against a stacked front and easily got the first down running right up the middle.
 
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I think the delayed draws is why we do so well statistically running up the middle.

But as the article states, we havent' done good at converting 3rd and short, 4th and short, etc for a long time.

Nightmares of getting stuffed against San Diego in.... 2009(?) come to mind.
 

Bob Sacamano

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I think if you look at the delayed draws only, the stats would tell a different story, hint: the arrow goes down. I didn't see them being appreciably effective.
 
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First of all, this is a well-researched article. The two parts that stand out most:

Last season, the offense converted on 57 percent of third and fourth down rushing plays with one or two yards to go for a first down—good for only 23rd in the NFL. It was just 54 percent (26th) in 2010 and 58 percent (26th) three seasons ago. The lack of short-yardage efficiency is one reason the Cowboys were just 20th in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage in 2011.

Also:

Since 2008, teams that have possessed a top 20 guard or center, as graded by PFF, have totaled 9.18 wins per season. Those with a bottom 20 interior lineman have averaged only 7.23—nearly two fewer wins per season. With a sample size of over 2,500 games, that’s a pretty substantial difference. The disparity in team wins is similar for offenses that finished in the top 10 in short-yardage rushing efficiency versus those in the bottom 10.

This explains 8-8 last season. It also shows that Jerry did not do his homework going into the draft and offseason. Finally, it shows that we've made up little ground on the top 6 NFC conference teams.

I'd be shocked to see this team make the playoffs this season. It would take a comical clusterfuck of mistakes or injuries from two of the top 8 teams in the conference.
 

Sheik

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Wut? The interior of the line is going to suck again? Wha?

We signed a backup that couldn't start in Carolina, and a Cincinatti castoff that was the worst player on their line. Plus we're standing pat with a shitty, weak center that can't execute a shotgun snap.

And you're trying to tell me the interior is going to suck again?

I'm going to play the wait and see game. Wait until bernie and livings slide on that magic Dallas jersey. Can we just give these guys a chance? Change of scenery. Callahan. RKG. 31 other teams. Butt hurt.

/****** zoner mentality.
 

dbair1967

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What if you take out Murray's 225 yard run up the middle vs STL dbair? Still #1?

Its over in CZ somewhere, I think AdamJT did the math and we were still very near the top even without Murray's long run vs St Louis.
 

superpunk

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Well that's a depressing statistical analysis.

I still want to see them actually out there together though. I love these advanced stat analyses but for the Oline they are so tricky that they almost become meaningless. if you're evaluating a guard based on what a team gained running up the middle you're probably not getting good data. Did that run get stuffed because the center got beat? Did the FB miss his block on the ILB? etc.

As a counter look at football outsiders Oline analysis for last season.

www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

Dallas was ranked 9th in the league by them for total line yards (their own madeup stat). They give us 4.36 on inside runs (9th in the NFL), which differs from the 4.10 number from PFR. They also show that we ran VERY well of the left tackle and left outside spots but were terrible on Tyron Smith's side. They do agree that our "Power Success" was terrible but that's a straight evaluation of whether we convert on short yardage plays, duh we didn't.

FWIW Carolina was ranked fifth overall and fourth in power success. Their outside runs have to be skewed because of what Cam did though. Cincinnatti was terrible at everything, but did run well off the left side where Livings was paired with their LT. So who knows?

I just don't think anything of value can be gleaned from this article or any of these stats. Were we the 9th best inside rushing team in the league last season?
 

superpunk

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I know you're not smart enough to read and understand the rest of what I laid out (or maybe you are and just ignored it because it doesn't agree with your preconception so you glossed over it in the name of confirmation bias) so next time instead of trying to write something witty maybe just go fuck yourself?
 

superpunk

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Hmmmmm, I'm not smart enough to rebut or dispute anything he's brought up, how should I respond?

HURR-DURR ZONER!
 

Sheik

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Hmmmmm, I'm not smart enough to rebut or dispute anything he's brought up, how should I respond?

HURR-DURR ZONER!

To be fair, I wasn't talking about anyone here, not even Dbair.

And by "here", that doesn't count zrinkill or texanwinickiarnold.
 
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lol

I'm smarter message board internet poster cuz I type out long-winded bullshit to support a flawed theory. For realz guyz.

Earned in internet tough guy badge today and padded post count. Nice work.
 

superpunk

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I mean in all these analysis they are reading a box score (D. Murray rush to the right for 5 yards) is counted as a 5 yard rush off right tackle.

Football outsiders tries to explain it like this;

Only five directions are listed because research so far shows no statistically significant difference between how well a team performs on runs listed middle, left guard, and right guard.

Which sounds cute but is misleading. The only reason they don't break it down that far is because in the box scores they only say D. Murray rush up the middle for 5 yards, they don't specify whether it was right left or center. Rather than football outsiders say "We're reading play by plays and using that to develop our in-depth evaluation", they just go with "there's no difference inside guys! don't worry about it."

That doesn't mean all these analyses are bad. It's useful to know QB splits on deep, middle and short throws. It's useful to see drop percentage on a wideout, and all of those things can be fairly accurately analyzed from simply reading the play by play.

Oline numbers I just don't really see the value in. You can't take one line of play by play and come to any meaningful conclusion about how the play was blocked or the performance of the offensive line. We run an off tackle sweep for 30 yards where Tyron Smith got blown off the ball but Witten cracked down on his man and sealed the edge, according to Oline "stats" that goes down as a huge win for Smith.
 
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superpunk

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lol

I'm smarter message board internet poster cuz I type out long-winded bullshit to support a flawed theory. For realz guyz.

Earned in internet tough guy badge today and padded post count. Nice work.

So you posted some long-winded bullshit to support a flawed theory but are grumpy because instead of just blindly agree with you and say "great post Uvula! you should write a book!" I disagreed with it and clearly stated why?

ok then.
 

Freddie

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So you posted some long-winded bullshit to support a flawed theory but are grumpy because of just blindly agree with you and say "great post Uvula! you should write a book!" I disagreed with it and clearly stated why?

How I was raised.
 
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