bbgun

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The Morning After

With just under two minutes to go in the first half at AT&T Stadium on Sunday, the Cowboys had scored their third touchdown of the game and were apparently sailing in open waters with the wind at their backs, up 24-13. They were playing a young and talented Los Angeles Rams team that is certainly improved, but not up for this type of road challenge against a team that is simply better.

Everything was going very well. The patrons were quite pleased.

That was at about 1:25 p.m. yesterday in Arlington, when the officials reviewed what was a pretty clear touchdown by Brice Butler and reversed their own dubious judgement.

Within two hours, the plot had turned -- including a run of action that saw Dallas outscored 22-6 the rest of the way -- and the Cowboys' world had been turned upside down by these upstarts from the West.

And now, as is the habit in NFL cities when sudden change goes against the script, some are already bemoaning that this season is just not going to be the dream year that was so coveted after a few decades of wandering in the wilderness. And, let's be honest, they may be right. We know there is nothing more difficult in Cowboys land than putting successful seasons in succession. The last time this franchise put back-to-back playoff berths together was 2006-07 -- the first two years of Tony Romo's career. Before that, you had to go back to 1998-99, when Troy Aikman was the quarterback and new coach Chan Gailey was trying to squeeze one more run out of an aging roster that had hoisted the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season three different times.

Whether the 2017 Dallas Cowboys have a playoff berth -- let alone a Lombardi Trophy moment -- in them this season remains to be seen, but the uneasiness of the average Cowboys fan today is not reassuring. And why would it be any other way? When the celebrated offense needed to put together a little time on the ball in the second half to shelter a defense that requires some sheltering, they put together four straight drives out of halftime that did not reach midfield. During those four drives, they snapped the ball 16 times for a total of 42 yards, two first downs and three punts (and an interception).

That put the Rams back out there again, which was not going well. Since Butler's touchdown, the Rams had gained 278 yards of their own, scored five times in six drives (thankfully for Dallas, just one of those five scores was a touchdown) and had gone from being well behind to up eight, 32-24.

From there, the Cowboys tried to rally and pull the day out of the fire, but for this offense to simply snap its fingers and return to a being machine that scores when it wants is much easier said than done. They put one drive together that cut the lead to 32-30, but the two-point conversion stalled with a penalty on Travis Frederick. The defense then allowed the Rams to move the chains for 12 plays, 68 yards and more than five minutes of the remaining 7:11. Anthony Brown had a chance there to be the hero with an interception on a very poor decision from young quarterback Jared Goff, but the ball fell to the ground. Do the Cowboys win if Brown catches that ball? You can definitely make the case. Several minutes later, if they had a little more courage, the Rams could have ended the game themselves with a touchdown but instead played for a field goal, leaving the Cowboys a small window to victory.

That window slammed shut, however, when the passing game was unable to deliver. The protection was poor, the throws were not precise, the catches not all made and the fourth-down desperation dump-off to Ezekiel Elliott was corralled a yard short of the marker.

Game over.

Frustrations abound on this Monday morning.

*****

I spent most of 2016 marveling at the offensive machine Dallas had built through years of decision making and development. I described it countless times at "repeatable and sustainable" offense in a league where the best teams seem to ask their rare franchise QBs to perform magic tricks and miracles, the Cowboys merely run their bulldozer down the field and destroy anything in the path.

It was repeatable and sustainable because every week a team would come to Dallas with grand designs and plans on how to shut it down. But, the Cowboys had an answer for everything. You tried every move in the book and they had a counter ready. The story ended in 2016 only because they let their guard down for too long in the 1st half of their playoff game - not because someone found the secret of how to slow them down.

But, if there is one thing we learn from sports, over and over again, it is the truth that no matter how close you come to your dreams in one year, you must go all the way back to the start for the next year.

It doesn't matter that you were one step from the door in 2016. You don't just pick up 2017 at that juncture. No. You go all the way back down the mountain and start over again. This is how video games used to be, kids. You don't get to save your progress and restart there. You put in a new quarter and start back at Donkey Kong screen #1 to climb all the way back up the grid.

And not only that, but the teams that want you to fail have spent nine months trying to come up with new plans for forcing you out of your comfort zone. It is one thing to find success when it comes suddenly and out of nowhere, Dak Prescott. It is another thing altogether when the highest level of competition in your sport has spent an entire spring and summer studying your every move, tendency, strength, and yes, weakness. Now, after decades of experience in this sport, those coaching minds have some ideas to test you over and over again to see if you can pass every challenge. If you do, then, congratulations, you may join that group in the NFL that have enjoyed years of success taking on all comers. They are the true superstars. There aren't many of them, but they are the ones who have shown to have almost no weaknesses.

For now, the Cowboys are being defended differently. And with each week of success that opposing defenses are having against Dallas, the book on how to do it gets a little bigger. If the Giants were the only defense to have ideas, it would be one thing. But, the Vikings had the personnel to do it. The Broncos has the personnel to do it. The Cardinals and the Rams both stymied the offense for large portions of their games. That doesn't mean that the Cowboys are completely shut down. Not at all. But, what it means is that the Cowboys are not able to hide their defense because they control the clock and the game primarily from their offensive ground-and-pound strategy that seemed so foolproof last season, at times.

Now, teams are forcing the Cowboys to win with their 2nd or 3rd best option. Last year, the Cowboys ran on 1st down more than anyone. They ran in the 2nd half more than anyone. They ran overall more than anyone. This year, they rank 14th, 21st, and 21st in those three categories.

They ran near the top of the 10 play drive rankings. Now, they are 21st. They ran the clock out. They were 2nd in time of possession. Through 4 games, they are 28th.

Teams are forcing the Cowboys to stop running on 1st down. When things were going poorly in the 2nd half, yesterday, the Cowboys tried to get that offensive line cooking to take over the game. 1st down run for Zeke on the initial drive out of the locker-room was a tackle for loss. The next drive they had two 1st down runs, 3 yards for Zeke and 2 yards for Ryan Switzer on a jet sweep. The next two runs for Zeke on 1st down on the next two drives were for 0 and -1. So, this dominant running team had five 1st down runs for five yards total.

This, of course, is setting up 2nd and long and 3rd and long. We know what is happening there, right? Run blitzes and bracketing of the easy targets in the middle of the field. Jason Witten and Cole Beasley are not going to be open every much and they certainly aren't going to be very productive.

Beasley has had 20 balls thrown at him this season and has converted 6 into 1st downs. That is a pretty far cry from 98 targets last year for 51 1st downs. And Jason Witten? 28 targets this year for only 5 1st downs. And in the last 2 weeks, 2 receptions for 12 yards.

So, this is pretty easy to decode, right? Defenses are congesting the middle, plugging up the runs inside, and then bracketing the security blankets. Challenging the corners to man-up without much help and are willing to concede occasional outs to the wide receivers, but assuming that if the Cowboys have to make a steady diet out of Dak Prescott throwing outside the numbers against man coverage, at some point of the drive he will miss on a throw. That might be a pick or it might be a punt. Either way, it beats the slow death of Zeke pounding them for 160.

To make matters worse, when that is working, now you are asking more of your defense. The Cowboys have won the time of possession battle once this year, against the hapless Giants. Otherwise, the defense is being asked to play way more than 2016. 288 defensive snaps already for the Cowboys defense is 72 per game. Last year they defended 65.7 snaps a game. That adds up quickly, especially when you can't get off the field.

The Rams had the ball 9 times on Sunday and never turned the ball over while punting twice. The Cowboys firmed up and held their opponent to field goals, but that is a lot of time to be defending.

Basically, if you want to know why your team is 2-2 this year, it is that your strength is not your strength at the moment. People (maybe even you) will blame your QB and your defense, but those are just the easy targets. The reality is this - your strength last year allowed your QB and defense to be protected. Dak Prescott was no gun-slinger last year. He was an opportunistic QB who did everything he was asked and nothing he wasn't asked. But, now, if your strength - your devastating running game with an offensive line and running back who were the toast of the league - is no longer capable of helping a young QB and a rather weak defense, then this season has no chance.

The All Pros at left tackle, center, and right guard have all put snaps on tape that suggest they are being challenged like never before, too. Collectively as a group, they no longer appear invincible. Maybe defenses are deploying too many players to beat them, but I have never seen Travis Frederick beaten as much as I have in 2017. Same for Zack Martin and Tyron Smith. That doesn't mean they are lousy or even average. They are still fantastic players. But, they are being given some real battles this year. And that says nothing about La'el Collins and the rotating left guard, or even the tight ends where the battles are just as vital to get the running game some room.

The issues are many and Green Bay week is here. That should reignite things going into the bye week as the Cowboys get to play their battered and bruised rivals who at last check have four guards and a center playing offensive line for them, as well as injuries at RB, WR, DL, and everywhere but Aaron Rodgers, it seems.

It is a marathon, not a sprint. It is a very long season, but the start has not been quite what everyone had planned when they found out Elliott would not be suspended. It was supposed to be a continuation of 2016 for many, and now they are reminded that isn't how any of this actually works in the NFL.
 

ThoughtExperiment

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Amazing that just last week, Sturm (and plenty of others) were talking about what a "great" win last week was against a lousy Cardinals team.
 

Dodger12

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If Prescott is the franchise QB we all hope he is, he needs to play better and carry the team when things aren't going well. Right now, teams will play to stop the run. That's the formula until Prescott makes them pay. Oh, and throwing a 5 yard pass on 4th and 10 at the end of the game is a microcosm of what's wrong with his play. I just don't think you make that throw. You scramble if you have to, you buy time for guys to get open and you attempt a pass beyond the sticks. A part of me feels like Dak's been reading his own press clippings on his supposed "accuracy" and doesn't want to take a chance which might lead to an INT.
 

Doomsday

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I spent most of 2016 marveling at the offensive machine Dallas had built through years of decision making and development.
But mostly just dumb fucking luck.
 

yimyammer

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the Cowboys get to play their battered and bruised rivals who at last check have four guards and a center playing offensive line for them, as well as injuries at RB, WR, DL, and everywhere but Aaron Rodgers, it seems.


lol, we all know how thats gonna turn out. That should translate to a GB blowout
 
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