NFL.com Chad Rueter Safest Picks

NFL draft: Thomas, Watt among safest prospects on defense

By Chad Reuter
Draft analyst
Published: March 22, 2017 at 02:23 p.m.
Updated: March 22, 2017 at 02:37 p.m.



Transitioning from college to pro football is no picnic. The schemes are more complex, and the players are bigger, stronger and more mature.

Some collegiate stars can make an instant (and sustained) impact. They typically come from major programs with pro-style talent and schemes. Or they might have grown up in a football family where the intricacies of the game are now second-nature. Some prospects might not have NFL genes or play at a SEC school, but have the athletic traits, work ethic, and mental aptitude to transfer their games to the next level.

Below are eight college stars on defense that I believe can be safely picked early in the draft with the expectation of having a long, distinguished career.

NOTE: Click on each player's name for a full scouting report and click through the tabs above to see the safest prospects on offense and defense.

1. Myles Garrett, DE/OLB, Texas A&M

Most expect the Browns to select Garrett at No. 1 to set the edge and make a home in the backfield of Cleveland's opponents. The floor on Garrett is high, as he's likely to accumulate 8-10 sacks a year and do his job vs. the run, even if he doesn't become a dominant pass rusher who racks up 12-15 sacks every season.

Team fits: Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers ... and everyone else, but they won't get a chance to pick him.

2. Solomon Thomas, DE, Stanford

Forget about his average height and length. Thomas is what scouts call a "War Daddy" -- someone who brings strength and intensity on every play. He'll be an impact player for the next decade. A team will get a bargain if he slides out of the top five,.

Team fits: San Francisco 49ers, Chicago Bears, Tennessee Titans.

3. Jamal Adams, S, LSU

Adams doesn't have the elite back-end speed of Earl Thomas, but he has enough range to affect the passing game and stop outside runs from getting to the sideline. Plus, he's a defensive leader. Plug him in and appreciate his skills for a decade.

Team fits: San Francisco 49ers, Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Chargers, Indianapolis Colts, Washington Redskins.

4. Jordan Willis, DE, Kansas State

More of a power rusher off the edge than a speed merchant, Willis showed off great athleticism at the NFL Scouting Combine, and scouts already knew of his relentless nature. Scouts will go back to the tape to see that the speed he showed at the combine wasn't always evident in games, but pro coaches will get the most out of his ability, making him a long-time starter.

Team fits: Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Atlanta Falcons, Los Angeles Rams.

5. Reuben Foster, ILB, Alabama

Even with his unfortunate combine incident, Foster's steady (and explosive at times) play will make him an NFL difference-maker in the middle. While he'll probably be limited to playing inside at the next level, he can affect the short-to-intermediate passing game and attack gaps to stop running backs in their tracks.

Team fits: Cincinnati Bengals, New Orleans Saints, Indianapolis Colts, Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos.

6. Raekwon McMillan, ILB, Ohio State

McMillan will be the consummate pro in the NFL -- an intelligent and rock-solid starter. He can play Mike or Sam linebacker in any defense, giving him scheme versatility. Although teams might not have first-round grades on him because he's not an explosive pass rusher, he can get after the quarterback on blitzes, as well. He'll be a two-contract player for some team.

Team fits: Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns.

7. T.J. Watt, OLB, Wisconsin

Typically, a one-year college starter isn't included on a "safest picks" list. However, Watt's work ethic and athleticism make him worthy of this list. The fact that teams have already seen two Watt brothers, J.J. and Derek, play well in the NFL means he has the genes to make an impact on Sundays. T.J. is one of the few players that possess a high floor and a high ceiling, as he's really just coming into his own on defense.

Team fits: Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers.

8. Ryan Anderson, LB, Alabama

One of the Crimson Tide's leaders on defense, Anderson is expected to be a glue player in the NFL. His length isn't what most scouts like in an outside defender, but he has the skills to be a factor at the position. Anderson could also easily move inside in a four-linebacker set to take advantage of his strength and tenaciousness.

Team fits: Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots.

Transitioning from college to pro football is no picnic. The schemes are more complex, and the players are bigger, stronger and more mature.

Some collegiate stars can make an instant (and sustained) impact. They typically come from major programs with pro-style talent and schemes. Or they might have grown up in a football family where the intricacies of the game are now second-nature. Some prospects might not have NFL genes or play at a SEC school, but have the athletic traits, work ethic, and mental aptitude to transfer their games to the next level.

Below are seven college stars on offense that I believe can be safely picked early in the draft with the expectation of having a long, distinguished career. On Wednesday, I'll reveal my list of the draft's safest defensive prospects.

NOTE: Click on each player's name for a full scouting report and click through the tabs above to see the safest prospects on offense and defense

1. O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama

Howard can run. He can catch. He can block. There's nothing else an NFL team would want from an elite tight end prospect. In fact, his agility and speed at the NFL Scouting Combine were comparable to the top receivers in the class, even though he measured at 6-6, 251 pounds. That means offensive coordinators can use him in-line, in the slot, outside, and pretty much anywhere else. It won't be surprising if Howard is selected in the top 10.

Team fits: Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans.

2. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford

NFL teams can be sure that they're getting a very good football player if they select McCaffrey. He did miss some time in 2016 with an injury, and not all teams are sure of the role in which he'll be most effective. His genes (as the son of former NFL receiver "Easy Ed" McCaffrey), quickness (outstanding 6.57-second three-cone drill at the combine), and toughness (30-plus rushes in three of his last four games of 2016) put him near the top of teams' lists despite the question marks.

Team fits: Carolina Panthers, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles.

3. Zay Jones, WR, East Carolina

The son of long-time NFL linebacker Robert Jones knows the work it takes to succeed in the NFL. He's a polished route runner and reliable pass-catcher with enough speed to take advantage of schematic matchups -- sort of like a 6-foot-2, 200-pound version of last year's second-round steal, Sterling Shepard.

Team fits: Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Kansas City Chiefs.

4. Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan

I would have put Davis at the top of this list, but it's tough to do that when he hasn't been able to work out while rehabbing from ankle surgery. Still, his overall skill set makes him a true No. 1 NFL receiver. Scouts reviewing his film can see his speed, physicality, and fly-trap hands.

Team fits: Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Tennessee Titans.

5. Dan Feeney, G/C, Indiana

Feeney's a mauler, but has nimble enough feet and good length to stay with quick interior pass rushers at the next level as well. He played center at the Reese's Senior Bowl after earning All-American honors at right guard and right tackle for the Hoosiers during the 2016 season. Feeney can play four positions and gives everything he has in every game, making him worthy of first-round consideration.

Team fits: Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings

6. Nathan Peterman, QB, Pittsburgh

Will Peterman be an above-average NFL starter? It's tough to say. But he's a unique quarterback in this draft class due to his combination of sufficient arm strength, solid character grades, and experience in a pro-style system. No one should be surprised by his talent, as Peterman was a four-star recruit when he signed at Tennessee, where he began his career before transferring to Pitt. Don't be shocked if a team trades up in the second round to select him.

Team fits: Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints, Washington Redskins.

7. Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama

I know this won't be a popular selection for this list, but I think Robinson is a likely 10-year starter at right tackle or guard, depending on the system. He's a brick wall who is willing to put in the work in improving as a pass protector. If he's selected in the middle part of the first round, it will be a solid value.

Team fits: Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants, New York Jets, Seattle Seahawks.

6. Nathan Peterman, QB, Pittsburgh

Will Peterman be an above-average NFL starter? It's tough to say. But he's a unique quarterback in this draft class due to his combination of sufficient arm strength, solid character grades, and experience in a pro-style system. No one should be surprised by his talent, as Peterman was a four-star recruit when he signed at Tennessee, where he began his career before transferring to Pitt. Don't be shocked if a team trades up in the second round to select him.

Keep reading...

Oddly just had a private workout with the Eagles. Lurie mentioned wanting to draft a QB every year, but he seems to be out of their range. Unless they want to do like the Patriots thing and develop him then flip him in a few years for a premium pick.

I'm getting pretty happy with the idea of Jordan Willis here.