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By SportsDayDFW.com Contact SportsDayDFW.com on Twitter: @SportsDayDFW


Dak Prescott has a favorite line: All 32 teams passed on me. They did it repeatedly, too, he likes to remind fans.

"Thank you to the 31 teams for passing up on me," he said in Houston during Super Bowl weekend, as he accepted rookie of the year honors.

"Actually 32 teams passed up on me three times," he said smiling. "The Cowboys, they got lucky."

Or was it Dak who got lucky with the season he had?

How did the Cowboys QB, who led Dallas to a 13-3 season and the top seed in the NFC as a rookie, fall to the fourth round of the draft? Was he really the 135th best prospect in 2016?

Pro Football Focus analyzed the topic in one of its Draft Daily articles recently.

It's a "fair question," writer Steve Palazzolo says. "When evaluating his 2015 Mississippi State film compared to his 2016 Dallas tape, it's clear that Prescott made great strides with his footwork, pocket presence, decision-making and accuracy, so credit needs to go to both Prescott and the Cowboys' coaching staff."

But two aspects could've been caught, he says: Prescott's accuracy and his separation passes.

"While Prescott's overall numbers were solid, a deeper look showed a few areas in which he excelled," Palazzolo says. "Prescott had the best accuracy (defined as a perfectly-thrown pass 'in-stride,' or one that hits the receiver between the numbers; passes that are 'catchable,' but off-target, do not count as accurate for this study) in the draft class on passes where his receivers had a step of separation. He also led the way on passes with a step of separation at both the 6-10-yard range and the 11-20-yard range."

How did the accuracy slip by? Prescott struggled at Mississippi State against "tight" coverage, Pro Football Focus found, ranking 16th of 20 in his QB draft class. And because he passed in tight situations more frequently than his peers, the numbers reflected his struggles.

"Whether that was Prescott taking more chances, not having the receivers to separate, or not having the system that set up easier throws, the overall numbers were pushed down by his high percentage of throws into tight coverage," Palazzolo said.


Some exact numbers PFF dredged up:

Stat Dak Prescott Average QB in class
How many throws were to "open" receivers? 72.5% 80%
How accurate were those passes? 66.9% 58.1%
Average accuracy passing to open receivers 62.7% 49.8%

And their conclusion:

"It's all starting to make sense now, of course, with the benefit of hindsight," PFF says. "The Cowboys' scheme did a fantastic job of creating open receivers, and Prescott did an equally-fine job finding them.

"The tight-window throws are still a concern, and we will have Prescott's Year 1 data in the near future. For now, Prescott's breakout doesn't look all that crazy when analyzing ... the offense that he found himself in as a rookie."
 
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Great article. To me, you can see that Linehan crafted pass plays early on that gave Dak the chance to succeed. I think Dak is very concrete with how he views an open receiver. Beasley gets open right away so Dak gets him the ball (5 games into the regular season Beasley was top 5 in receptions and yards). Later in the season starting at the Viking game where Linehan and Garrett were both challenged that thatvhave no explosive or downfield plays, Beasley started getting these decoy routes, skinny posts and fly routes. When Dallas needed a rally (like in the Green Bay game) they went for high percentage passes based on immediate separation like Beasley can do. Romo throws to mismatches whether the WR is clearly open or not. It is a skill but it has a lot of risk too. The team needs speed at WR for this very reason that hooefully Dak continues to seek the clearly open WR and forces the scheme or the athlete to respond.

"It's all starting to make sense now, of course, with the benefit of hindsight," PFF says. "The Cowboys' scheme did a fantastic job of creating open receivers, and Prescott did an equally-fine job finding them.
 

ThoughtExperiment

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The other reason he was passed on was that combine workout someone posted yesterday. He looked like a fourth round project -- not impressive athletically and not accurate at all.
 

Doomsday

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His DWI couldn't have had anything to do with his eventual draft spot. Right?
 

dbair1967

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His DWI couldn't have had anything to do with his eventual draft spot. Right?

Yeah there were people who thought Prescott could go as high as 2nd round after his Senior Bowl performance (not me, but others). The DWI definitely hurt his draft stock though.
 
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