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2011 NFL Mock Draft 3.0
Blaine Gabbert rises in the latest mock, as a need pick who offers trade leverage
By Mel Kiper
ESPN.com
The NFL combine has both underscored a lot about what we already knew, and shifted some prospects in the eyes of evaluators. Combine that with hints about a potential labor deal to come, and it makes this mock draft perhaps the most interesting thus far. In my comments, you'll see that how teams target certain prospects isn't just an indicator of need, but also one of leverage. If a labor agreement is reached, I believe you'll see trade flexibility that simply hasn't existed in previous years.
The biggest shift is at the top of the draft, where right now I see need balanced with leverage. Teams are now forced to not only consider the best player, but how much teams covet their draft position. Keep that in mind as you read -- and then comment. As always, an asterisk denotes non-seniors.
1) Carolina Panthers
Record: 2-14
* Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
There's a thought process here that goes beyond need. For one, Gabbert impressed in Indy, and his pro day next week will help determine if he has the potential to land here. Two, I expect any labor deal that gets worked out will create a rookie salary scale that limits the massive bonuses for top picks, making it easier to trade up and down in the draft, which has become increasingly difficult. So it makes sense for Carolina to project that it could take one of the top quarterbacks and open up the trade options, in essence, saying, "To guarantee a shot at the one you prefer, talk to us." Lastly, while I still believe in Jimmy Clausen's chances given his youth, Ron Rivera could not be blamed for targeting his own vision of a franchise quarterback with a pick here or via free agency. It's a leverage position now, but also a potential pick. Part of it is up to Gabbert.
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2) Denver Broncos
Record: 4-12
* Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
The Broncos are between defensive systems and have major needs along the defensive line, where their ability to stop the run was a problem, as was their pass rush, and they have a shot to take the best defensive lineman in a remarkably deep class. While many saw John Fox and John Elway watching the Auburn pro day closely, I believe that more of the conversations were focused on Fairley. He is scheme-versatile, very athletic for his size (which is back to 297 pounds as of yesterday) and a devastating penetrator at tackle; he helps immediately.
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3) Buffalo Bills
Record: 4-12
* Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
Many were surprised at Dareus' measurements at the combine, where he weighed in at 319 pounds. And while Chan Gailey says his 2011 defense could resemble a hybrid -- either a 3-4 or a 4-3 depending on available personnel and matchups -- Dareus is a player who can fit any scheme well. With great quickness for his size, he can take up blockers and still provide a push as a 3-4 defensive end, perhaps solidifying that scheme for the Bills. A safe pick at No. 3.
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4) Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 4-12
* Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
In 2003, Marvin Lewis' first year as head coach with the Bengals, the franchise drafted Carson Palmer, and had the discipline to start Jon Kitna all season and let Palmer learn the system while waiting to step in as the franchise quarterback. With Palmer on his way out, Lewis could do something similar in 2011, drafting Newton, letting him take a year to learn the system and plugging in an interim solution in the meantime. The Bengals could also consider moving this pick, similar to Carolina's position with Gabbert.
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5) Arizona Cardinals
Record: 5-11
Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
I'm sticking with this selection from the last mock. Joey Porter won't be back and Miller would represent an immediate pass-rushing upgrade on the edge of Arizona's 3-4 scheme. Miller, who has come a long way since a junior year in which he was considered mainly a sack artist, could certainly provide a pass-rushing presence for the Cardinals, but also has a great deal of athleticism and should hold up for three downs in this system.
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6) Cleveland Browns
Record: 5-11
* A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
Green answered all the necessary questions at the NFL combine, checking in just a hair under his listed 6-foot-4, with a 211-pound frame that could easily take on a little more weight, and his 4.48 speed in the 40 was solid given his size. In Green you have a player with the profile of an immediate impact talent at wide receiver and a solution on the outside in Cleveland, where they are desperate for a true No. 1 wideout. He's a perfect fit, and it's hard to imagine the Browns passing on him if he's around. (Especially if they ask Colt McCoy for an opinion.)
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7) San Francisco 49ers
Record: 6-10
* Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
There were a lot of comments questioning why I could see my No. 1 overall Big Board player dropping this far on draft day. But consider the history: In 1987, I had Rod Woodson rated similarly, and he fell to No. 10 overall. In 1989, Deion Sanders was far and away the best athlete on the board -- he fell to No. 5. Champ Bailey was my best athlete and the top corner available in the 1999 draft, and he fell to No. 7. At this position, it simply happens and San Francisco should be happy if it does. Peterson is an immense talent. He checked in at 219 pounds and ran a 4.34 40 time in Indy. Enough said.
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8) Tennessee Titans
Record: 6-10
* Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
A tremendous natural pass-rusher, Bowers falls a little because of needs elsewhere before this pick and because of some very small but lingering questions about his knee. He was unable to work out in Indy as a precaution with his recovery. Tennessee targeted its pass rush in the first round last year, but Bowers simply represents too much value at this position and with the pass rush still in need of an upgrade, he provides immediate help as well.
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9) Dallas Cowboys
Record: 6-10
Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
This is a pick I've stuck with through the first two mocks. Again, because the mock draft can't account for draft board trades -- the Cowboys could certainly deal down the board, particularly if they target the offensive line -- Dallas could do a lot worse than to grab the best pure technician at the corner position. Amukamara should transition quickly, has shown the requisite speed for a top-10 pick at the position and has a really solid frame at 206 pounds. Any whispers that this guy could project better at safety are unfounded. He's a potential Pro Bowl corner.
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10) Washington Redskins
Record: 6-10
* Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
The Redskins are certainly back in the market at the quarterback position, but if they don't do something to upgrade the talent at the wide receiver position, it won't matter who they have in there. In Jones you have a physical talent who still offers a lot of upside but already has good hands, great blocking skills and the ability to beat people deep or work the middle. He blazed to a 4.39 40 in Indy while carrying 220 pounds. Jones does carry some durability concerns, but has shown the ability to play through nicks.
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11) Houston Texans
Record: 6-10
* J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
Wade Phillips will love Watt, a big, aggressive, smart and scheme-versatile defensive end who can offer an immediate help for a defense in need of bodies for the front seven. At 290 pounds, with a really good burst and a relentless nature, you can do a lot with Watt along the defensive line. Houston has to find some pass-rush help to complement the great Mario Williams, and this is a good place to look.
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12) Minnesota Vikings
Record:6-10
* Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
Minnesota has other needs, but if they remain here, a value like Quinn -- literally a guy who some might consider a potential No. 1 overall pick -- is too much to pass up at this position in the draft. Quinn combines power and athleticism, is a gifted natural pass-rusher, has great character and no health questions after not playing a down for North Carolina in 2010. If he falls to this point we could look back and call him the steal of the draft.
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13) Detroit Lions
Record: 6-10
* Tyron Smith, OT, USC
Detroit has to improve at the cornerback position, but unless they trade down the value isn't really available right here. The other big area of concern is the offensive line, where they need to do everything possible to keep Matthew Stafford upright in 2011, a year anyone can see is absolutely crucial to his development. Smith has added necessary bulk without losing much in the way of athleticism and offers a potential long-term solution at left tackle. An underrated run-blocker, he can also help pave the way for more from Jahvid Best.
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14) St. Louis Rams
Record: 7-9
* Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
A relentless player who displays leverage, power and the ability to locate the ball well against both the rush and the pass, Liuget fills a need spot for the Rams and is a player I'm sticking with here from the last mock. If a receiver were to fall to this position, I think St. Louis would jump, but like Detroit in front of them, their position of biggest need doesn't offer a sensible value matchup right here. I also can see the Rams going for an outside linebacker at this spot. Liuget solidified his elevated stock in Indy and has moved up in a deep defensive line class.
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15) Miami Dolphins
Record: 7-9
* Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
Sticking with this angle from the first and second mocks, Miami goes with the top back on the board. It says a lot for Ingram that he really won't drop among evaluators even without a good 40 at the combine, because he was never expected to shine there. Ingram is a producer -- he has great balance, runs with great pad level, balance and leverage, and explodes from contact. Once he gets through the initial hole, he's a terror on the second level. Miami just makes sense for him.
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16) Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 8-8
* Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri
Smith offers a raw talent package with a lot of upside. He's a player who could easily have been a top-10 pick in 2012 had he stuck around Missouri for another year of development. The Jags went for veterans to spackle over the holes at defensive end last year, but it's time to develop some edge talent to go with what is a really promising defensive interior.
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17) New England Patriots (from Oakland)
Record: 14-2
Ryan Kerrigan, OLB, Purdue
Kerrigan answered a lot of questions about his athleticism in Indy and has shown that he might not be the tweener many believe he is, a player seemingly stuck between a 3-4 OLB and a 4-3 DE. While I don't see him as a guy who'll be dropping back and covering very well early on, Kerrigan is smart and simply has a gift for getting to the quarterback. New England needs a guy like him for all the passes they'll continue to face when up in games. Kerrigan led the nation in tackles for loss last year and shows good leverage against the run to go with his obvious pass-rushing skill set.
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18) San Diego Chargers
Record: 9-7
Cameron Jordan, DE, Cal
San Diego could go a few ways with this pick, but for a team that feels close to being back among the NFL elite, Jordan is a guy ready to help immediately. An experienced player who thrived as a 3-4 defensive end at Cal, he should adapt quickly and provide early production. A force against both the run or the pass, he combines leverage, pass-rush skills and instincts with underrated athleticism. The bloodlines are a bonus.
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19) New York Giants
Record: 10-6
Mike Pouncey, G/C, Florida
Pouncey's brother was taken at No. 18 overall last year and became a Pro Bowl player in his first year with the Steelers. Mike offers a very similar skill set to Maurkice's. He can play guard or center, gets to the second level very well and should help the Giants in the running game. New York is a much better team when they have a running game that takes the heat off Eli Manning, and it should start up front.
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20) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 10-6
* Justin Houston, DE, Georgia
A rare player who had NFL personnel people doing a reappraisal after he weighed in at the combine at a full 270 pounds on a 6-foot-3 frame, Houston is now a legit prospect as a 4-3 defensive end with a developing set of pass-rushing skills. Tampa addressed the interior of that defensive line early in last year's draft and getting to opposing quarterbacks from the edge has to be a goal in the 2011 draft. Houston could be a steal if he develops.
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21) Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 10-6
* Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
Ayers surprised a lot of people with some mediocre workouts two weeks ago, given his reputation for athleticism, but that can't drop him too far, because the tape doesn't lie and his skill set is such that he can help a team early. A good fit on the edge in the Chiefs' system, Ayers fills an obvious need at outside linebacker in the 3-4 and isn't just a pass-rusher. More in the Mike Vrabel mold, he can cover, rush and tackle well against the run.
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22) Indianapolis Colts
Record: 10-6
Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
One more that stays the same from previous mocks, I just really like the fit. The Colts have shown their age on the offensive line and even while Peyton Manning is a maestro working out of the shotgun, they need to be able to do more both in the run game and in pass protection. Castonzo is a smart, versatile tackle who has been consistently rated as a first-round tackle option. He's added bulk and with good awareness footwork, he fits well in Indy at a position the Colts need to fill.
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23) Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 10-6
Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
Philadelphia should be targeting the line on both sides of the ball. They could also consider secondary help, but might consider that a slight reach here. In Carimi they get a guy who loves to run block and will sustain those blocks. He battled a number of top defensive ends in Big Ten play and could fill in at either tackle position early, potentially starting on the right side with the goal to become a starting left tackle in what should be an explosive offense.
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24) New Orleans Saints
Record: 11-5
* Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple
Wilkerson is a player who has seen his stock rise during the draft process. He's a penetrator from the tackle position and could be a cheaper version of Dareus as a guy who can get to the quarterback from the inside. He's scheme-versatile given his size and speed and I've said before that he would be a top-10 pick were he to stay at Temple for another year. The Saints get good value without having to trade up at a position of need and a potential steal if the development continues. Wilkerson was all but unblockable last season.
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25) Seattle Seahawks
Record: 7-9
Jake Locker, QB, Washington
After a season widely considered disastrous in terms of his overall draft stock, I have Locker bouncing back some during the lead-up to the draft. He was impressive enough at the combine and proved that he's every bit the athlete that Newton is (they ran identical times in the 40). He has a big-time arm and just needs to show that his accuracy is something that will develop when he has time to throw. This isn't an endorsement of Locker as a guy who should step in and start for the Seahawks if Matt Hasselbeck isn't back in 2011, but even if Seattle makes a move for a short-term answer at quarterback, Locker could be hard to pass up if Pete Carroll thinks he's a solution for the long run.
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26) Baltimore Ravens
Record: 12-4
* Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
The Ravens notably didn't take a cornerback with any of their picks in 2010 and while I had them picking another corner in this spot in a previous mock, Smith has proved that he has all the physical tools. With the Ravens' leadership on defense in the form of Ray Lewis, he has a chance to be a steal if his attitude matches his skill set. A burner with shut-down skills, good ball awareness and elite size for the position, he adds immediate depth with the chance to start early.
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27) Atlanta Falcons
Record: 13-3
Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
The Falcons are a solid team without a true glaring need, but a 4-3 defensive end with the ability to rush the passer and great awareness and discipline against the run can help them in 2011. Clayborn has good size, a reputation for relentlessness and the respect of his peers -- Carimi called him the best defensive end he'd faced at the college level.
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28) New England Patriots
Record: 14-2
Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami
There are no questions about Hankerson's hands and his speed is no longer in question. The Patriots have the underneath options, but could use a threat that can stretch defenses and cause matchup problems against smaller corners, and Hankerson provides that. At 6-foot-2 and 209 pounds, he's a physical wideout and creates another option for Tom Brady. The Patriots are a difficult team to project in this draft, because they have so much flexibility with all the picks -- they could target the best player on their board at a number of positions and still address needs all over.
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29) Chicago Bears
Record: 11-5
Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
Chicago should be thrilled if Solder is available here. He has added bulk to a 6-foot-8 frame, making him a guy who could help in a run game that really fell off in 2010. All the questions about his toughness aside, Chicago let Jay Cutler take far too many hits over the last two seasons and Mike Martz isn't reluctant to run the ball if he has an offensive line he can run behind with consistency.
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30) New York Jets
Record: 11-5
* Rahim Moore, S, UCLA
I remain split on what the Jets could do here. It's not a secret that they must improve the defensive line from a pass-rush and depth standpoint, but in a deep draft at those positions, Rex Ryan should feel confident that he can get help later. Moore is the top safety in the class and a guy who can cause even more problems for opposing quarterbacks facing down the creative Jets blitz packages. He can help create takeaways in the middle of the field.
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31) Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 12-4
Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor
Pittsburgh needs help on the offensive line and Watkins is a versatile player who can play multiple positions for them. They hit a home run drafting a versatile offensive lineman in Round 1 last year and Watkins offers more of that. The Steelers could also target the defensive line, but the offensive side of the ball is a bigger need, and, like the Jets, they can add help to the front of their 3-4 set with a later pick.
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32) Green Bay Packers
Record: 10-6
Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona
At about 260 pounds, Reed is a productive player who profiles well as a rushing 3-4 outside linebacker who could help take some pressure off Clay Matthews in Dom Capers' system. A smart player with above-average quickness, he's a sleeper in this class, as a player who can get after the passer, but also shows instincts as a guy who can drop into coverage.
Blaine Gabbert rises in the latest mock, as a need pick who offers trade leverage
By Mel Kiper
ESPN.com
The NFL combine has both underscored a lot about what we already knew, and shifted some prospects in the eyes of evaluators. Combine that with hints about a potential labor deal to come, and it makes this mock draft perhaps the most interesting thus far. In my comments, you'll see that how teams target certain prospects isn't just an indicator of need, but also one of leverage. If a labor agreement is reached, I believe you'll see trade flexibility that simply hasn't existed in previous years.
The biggest shift is at the top of the draft, where right now I see need balanced with leverage. Teams are now forced to not only consider the best player, but how much teams covet their draft position. Keep that in mind as you read -- and then comment. As always, an asterisk denotes non-seniors.
1) Carolina Panthers
Record: 2-14
* Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
There's a thought process here that goes beyond need. For one, Gabbert impressed in Indy, and his pro day next week will help determine if he has the potential to land here. Two, I expect any labor deal that gets worked out will create a rookie salary scale that limits the massive bonuses for top picks, making it easier to trade up and down in the draft, which has become increasingly difficult. So it makes sense for Carolina to project that it could take one of the top quarterbacks and open up the trade options, in essence, saying, "To guarantee a shot at the one you prefer, talk to us." Lastly, while I still believe in Jimmy Clausen's chances given his youth, Ron Rivera could not be blamed for targeting his own vision of a franchise quarterback with a pick here or via free agency. It's a leverage position now, but also a potential pick. Part of it is up to Gabbert.
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2) Denver Broncos
Record: 4-12
* Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
The Broncos are between defensive systems and have major needs along the defensive line, where their ability to stop the run was a problem, as was their pass rush, and they have a shot to take the best defensive lineman in a remarkably deep class. While many saw John Fox and John Elway watching the Auburn pro day closely, I believe that more of the conversations were focused on Fairley. He is scheme-versatile, very athletic for his size (which is back to 297 pounds as of yesterday) and a devastating penetrator at tackle; he helps immediately.
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3) Buffalo Bills
Record: 4-12
* Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
Many were surprised at Dareus' measurements at the combine, where he weighed in at 319 pounds. And while Chan Gailey says his 2011 defense could resemble a hybrid -- either a 3-4 or a 4-3 depending on available personnel and matchups -- Dareus is a player who can fit any scheme well. With great quickness for his size, he can take up blockers and still provide a push as a 3-4 defensive end, perhaps solidifying that scheme for the Bills. A safe pick at No. 3.
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4) Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 4-12
* Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
In 2003, Marvin Lewis' first year as head coach with the Bengals, the franchise drafted Carson Palmer, and had the discipline to start Jon Kitna all season and let Palmer learn the system while waiting to step in as the franchise quarterback. With Palmer on his way out, Lewis could do something similar in 2011, drafting Newton, letting him take a year to learn the system and plugging in an interim solution in the meantime. The Bengals could also consider moving this pick, similar to Carolina's position with Gabbert.
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5) Arizona Cardinals
Record: 5-11
Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
I'm sticking with this selection from the last mock. Joey Porter won't be back and Miller would represent an immediate pass-rushing upgrade on the edge of Arizona's 3-4 scheme. Miller, who has come a long way since a junior year in which he was considered mainly a sack artist, could certainly provide a pass-rushing presence for the Cardinals, but also has a great deal of athleticism and should hold up for three downs in this system.
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6) Cleveland Browns
Record: 5-11
* A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
Green answered all the necessary questions at the NFL combine, checking in just a hair under his listed 6-foot-4, with a 211-pound frame that could easily take on a little more weight, and his 4.48 speed in the 40 was solid given his size. In Green you have a player with the profile of an immediate impact talent at wide receiver and a solution on the outside in Cleveland, where they are desperate for a true No. 1 wideout. He's a perfect fit, and it's hard to imagine the Browns passing on him if he's around. (Especially if they ask Colt McCoy for an opinion.)
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7) San Francisco 49ers
Record: 6-10
* Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
There were a lot of comments questioning why I could see my No. 1 overall Big Board player dropping this far on draft day. But consider the history: In 1987, I had Rod Woodson rated similarly, and he fell to No. 10 overall. In 1989, Deion Sanders was far and away the best athlete on the board -- he fell to No. 5. Champ Bailey was my best athlete and the top corner available in the 1999 draft, and he fell to No. 7. At this position, it simply happens and San Francisco should be happy if it does. Peterson is an immense talent. He checked in at 219 pounds and ran a 4.34 40 time in Indy. Enough said.
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8) Tennessee Titans
Record: 6-10
* Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
A tremendous natural pass-rusher, Bowers falls a little because of needs elsewhere before this pick and because of some very small but lingering questions about his knee. He was unable to work out in Indy as a precaution with his recovery. Tennessee targeted its pass rush in the first round last year, but Bowers simply represents too much value at this position and with the pass rush still in need of an upgrade, he provides immediate help as well.
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9) Dallas Cowboys
Record: 6-10
Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
This is a pick I've stuck with through the first two mocks. Again, because the mock draft can't account for draft board trades -- the Cowboys could certainly deal down the board, particularly if they target the offensive line -- Dallas could do a lot worse than to grab the best pure technician at the corner position. Amukamara should transition quickly, has shown the requisite speed for a top-10 pick at the position and has a really solid frame at 206 pounds. Any whispers that this guy could project better at safety are unfounded. He's a potential Pro Bowl corner.
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10) Washington Redskins
Record: 6-10
* Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
The Redskins are certainly back in the market at the quarterback position, but if they don't do something to upgrade the talent at the wide receiver position, it won't matter who they have in there. In Jones you have a physical talent who still offers a lot of upside but already has good hands, great blocking skills and the ability to beat people deep or work the middle. He blazed to a 4.39 40 in Indy while carrying 220 pounds. Jones does carry some durability concerns, but has shown the ability to play through nicks.
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11) Houston Texans
Record: 6-10
* J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
Wade Phillips will love Watt, a big, aggressive, smart and scheme-versatile defensive end who can offer an immediate help for a defense in need of bodies for the front seven. At 290 pounds, with a really good burst and a relentless nature, you can do a lot with Watt along the defensive line. Houston has to find some pass-rush help to complement the great Mario Williams, and this is a good place to look.
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12) Minnesota Vikings
Record:6-10
* Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
Minnesota has other needs, but if they remain here, a value like Quinn -- literally a guy who some might consider a potential No. 1 overall pick -- is too much to pass up at this position in the draft. Quinn combines power and athleticism, is a gifted natural pass-rusher, has great character and no health questions after not playing a down for North Carolina in 2010. If he falls to this point we could look back and call him the steal of the draft.
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13) Detroit Lions
Record: 6-10
* Tyron Smith, OT, USC
Detroit has to improve at the cornerback position, but unless they trade down the value isn't really available right here. The other big area of concern is the offensive line, where they need to do everything possible to keep Matthew Stafford upright in 2011, a year anyone can see is absolutely crucial to his development. Smith has added necessary bulk without losing much in the way of athleticism and offers a potential long-term solution at left tackle. An underrated run-blocker, he can also help pave the way for more from Jahvid Best.
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14) St. Louis Rams
Record: 7-9
* Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
A relentless player who displays leverage, power and the ability to locate the ball well against both the rush and the pass, Liuget fills a need spot for the Rams and is a player I'm sticking with here from the last mock. If a receiver were to fall to this position, I think St. Louis would jump, but like Detroit in front of them, their position of biggest need doesn't offer a sensible value matchup right here. I also can see the Rams going for an outside linebacker at this spot. Liuget solidified his elevated stock in Indy and has moved up in a deep defensive line class.
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15) Miami Dolphins
Record: 7-9
* Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
Sticking with this angle from the first and second mocks, Miami goes with the top back on the board. It says a lot for Ingram that he really won't drop among evaluators even without a good 40 at the combine, because he was never expected to shine there. Ingram is a producer -- he has great balance, runs with great pad level, balance and leverage, and explodes from contact. Once he gets through the initial hole, he's a terror on the second level. Miami just makes sense for him.
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16) Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 8-8
* Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri
Smith offers a raw talent package with a lot of upside. He's a player who could easily have been a top-10 pick in 2012 had he stuck around Missouri for another year of development. The Jags went for veterans to spackle over the holes at defensive end last year, but it's time to develop some edge talent to go with what is a really promising defensive interior.
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17) New England Patriots (from Oakland)
Record: 14-2
Ryan Kerrigan, OLB, Purdue
Kerrigan answered a lot of questions about his athleticism in Indy and has shown that he might not be the tweener many believe he is, a player seemingly stuck between a 3-4 OLB and a 4-3 DE. While I don't see him as a guy who'll be dropping back and covering very well early on, Kerrigan is smart and simply has a gift for getting to the quarterback. New England needs a guy like him for all the passes they'll continue to face when up in games. Kerrigan led the nation in tackles for loss last year and shows good leverage against the run to go with his obvious pass-rushing skill set.
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18) San Diego Chargers
Record: 9-7
Cameron Jordan, DE, Cal
San Diego could go a few ways with this pick, but for a team that feels close to being back among the NFL elite, Jordan is a guy ready to help immediately. An experienced player who thrived as a 3-4 defensive end at Cal, he should adapt quickly and provide early production. A force against both the run or the pass, he combines leverage, pass-rush skills and instincts with underrated athleticism. The bloodlines are a bonus.
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19) New York Giants
Record: 10-6
Mike Pouncey, G/C, Florida
Pouncey's brother was taken at No. 18 overall last year and became a Pro Bowl player in his first year with the Steelers. Mike offers a very similar skill set to Maurkice's. He can play guard or center, gets to the second level very well and should help the Giants in the running game. New York is a much better team when they have a running game that takes the heat off Eli Manning, and it should start up front.
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20) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 10-6
* Justin Houston, DE, Georgia
A rare player who had NFL personnel people doing a reappraisal after he weighed in at the combine at a full 270 pounds on a 6-foot-3 frame, Houston is now a legit prospect as a 4-3 defensive end with a developing set of pass-rushing skills. Tampa addressed the interior of that defensive line early in last year's draft and getting to opposing quarterbacks from the edge has to be a goal in the 2011 draft. Houston could be a steal if he develops.
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21) Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 10-6
* Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
Ayers surprised a lot of people with some mediocre workouts two weeks ago, given his reputation for athleticism, but that can't drop him too far, because the tape doesn't lie and his skill set is such that he can help a team early. A good fit on the edge in the Chiefs' system, Ayers fills an obvious need at outside linebacker in the 3-4 and isn't just a pass-rusher. More in the Mike Vrabel mold, he can cover, rush and tackle well against the run.
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22) Indianapolis Colts
Record: 10-6
Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
One more that stays the same from previous mocks, I just really like the fit. The Colts have shown their age on the offensive line and even while Peyton Manning is a maestro working out of the shotgun, they need to be able to do more both in the run game and in pass protection. Castonzo is a smart, versatile tackle who has been consistently rated as a first-round tackle option. He's added bulk and with good awareness footwork, he fits well in Indy at a position the Colts need to fill.
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23) Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 10-6
Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
Philadelphia should be targeting the line on both sides of the ball. They could also consider secondary help, but might consider that a slight reach here. In Carimi they get a guy who loves to run block and will sustain those blocks. He battled a number of top defensive ends in Big Ten play and could fill in at either tackle position early, potentially starting on the right side with the goal to become a starting left tackle in what should be an explosive offense.
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24) New Orleans Saints
Record: 11-5
* Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple
Wilkerson is a player who has seen his stock rise during the draft process. He's a penetrator from the tackle position and could be a cheaper version of Dareus as a guy who can get to the quarterback from the inside. He's scheme-versatile given his size and speed and I've said before that he would be a top-10 pick were he to stay at Temple for another year. The Saints get good value without having to trade up at a position of need and a potential steal if the development continues. Wilkerson was all but unblockable last season.
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25) Seattle Seahawks
Record: 7-9
Jake Locker, QB, Washington
After a season widely considered disastrous in terms of his overall draft stock, I have Locker bouncing back some during the lead-up to the draft. He was impressive enough at the combine and proved that he's every bit the athlete that Newton is (they ran identical times in the 40). He has a big-time arm and just needs to show that his accuracy is something that will develop when he has time to throw. This isn't an endorsement of Locker as a guy who should step in and start for the Seahawks if Matt Hasselbeck isn't back in 2011, but even if Seattle makes a move for a short-term answer at quarterback, Locker could be hard to pass up if Pete Carroll thinks he's a solution for the long run.
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26) Baltimore Ravens
Record: 12-4
* Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
The Ravens notably didn't take a cornerback with any of their picks in 2010 and while I had them picking another corner in this spot in a previous mock, Smith has proved that he has all the physical tools. With the Ravens' leadership on defense in the form of Ray Lewis, he has a chance to be a steal if his attitude matches his skill set. A burner with shut-down skills, good ball awareness and elite size for the position, he adds immediate depth with the chance to start early.
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27) Atlanta Falcons
Record: 13-3
Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
The Falcons are a solid team without a true glaring need, but a 4-3 defensive end with the ability to rush the passer and great awareness and discipline against the run can help them in 2011. Clayborn has good size, a reputation for relentlessness and the respect of his peers -- Carimi called him the best defensive end he'd faced at the college level.
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28) New England Patriots
Record: 14-2
Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami
There are no questions about Hankerson's hands and his speed is no longer in question. The Patriots have the underneath options, but could use a threat that can stretch defenses and cause matchup problems against smaller corners, and Hankerson provides that. At 6-foot-2 and 209 pounds, he's a physical wideout and creates another option for Tom Brady. The Patriots are a difficult team to project in this draft, because they have so much flexibility with all the picks -- they could target the best player on their board at a number of positions and still address needs all over.
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29) Chicago Bears
Record: 11-5
Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
Chicago should be thrilled if Solder is available here. He has added bulk to a 6-foot-8 frame, making him a guy who could help in a run game that really fell off in 2010. All the questions about his toughness aside, Chicago let Jay Cutler take far too many hits over the last two seasons and Mike Martz isn't reluctant to run the ball if he has an offensive line he can run behind with consistency.
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30) New York Jets
Record: 11-5
* Rahim Moore, S, UCLA
I remain split on what the Jets could do here. It's not a secret that they must improve the defensive line from a pass-rush and depth standpoint, but in a deep draft at those positions, Rex Ryan should feel confident that he can get help later. Moore is the top safety in the class and a guy who can cause even more problems for opposing quarterbacks facing down the creative Jets blitz packages. He can help create takeaways in the middle of the field.
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31) Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 12-4
Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor
Pittsburgh needs help on the offensive line and Watkins is a versatile player who can play multiple positions for them. They hit a home run drafting a versatile offensive lineman in Round 1 last year and Watkins offers more of that. The Steelers could also target the defensive line, but the offensive side of the ball is a bigger need, and, like the Jets, they can add help to the front of their 3-4 set with a later pick.
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32) Green Bay Packers
Record: 10-6
Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona
At about 260 pounds, Reed is a productive player who profiles well as a rushing 3-4 outside linebacker who could help take some pressure off Clay Matthews in Dom Capers' system. A smart player with above-average quickness, he's a sleeper in this class, as a player who can get after the passer, but also shows instincts as a guy who can drop into coverage.
