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Cam Newton's many hurdles
Seven more reasons Newton could have a very difficult NFL transition
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
There have been a number of retorts to last week's article that said Cam Newton should not be a first-round pick in the 2011 NFL draft.
The gist of most of them is that whatever mechanical issues Newton has that currently make him a less-than-polished pro prospect could be overcome with NFL-caliber coaching.
That is certainly a valid point, but as noted near the end of the article, the three items listed there were only part of a much larger array of question marks.
To be more specific, there are at least seven other issues of note for any team that drafts Newton. And again, I am not saying that Newton shouldn't be drafted or is destined to be a bust. I am questioning the premise that he should be an ironclad lock for the first round. Here are more reasons:
Limited experience in reading defenses
Newton basically ran a one-read offense at Auburn and wasn't asked to go through the complex read progressions he'll have to go through in the NFL.
One way to illustrate this is by noting that he threw only 12 checkdown-type passes in nine games against FBS opponents. A checkdown is usually a throw of last resort at the end of the reading progression, and his low attempt volume here should be a reason for concern. At Auburn, if Newton didn't find his receiver, he usually just tucked the ball and ran. While this may have worked in college, it won't be as effective in the NFL, where linebackers will be far better suited to punish him for that decision.
His experience questions are compounded by fact that just over 20 percent of his throws against FBS teams last year were screen passes. A screen is really a rush attempt in disguise and thus doesn't call for much in the way of reading a defense.
Limited evidence of an ability to hit passes when forced to scramble
It is assumed that Newton can be a playmaker through the air when he is forced to leave the pocket. He possesses that ability, but the 2010 season offered little in the way of metric evidence of that skill.
Newton did complete 7 of 11 passes against FBS teams last year on plays in which his receivers had to adjust their routes because of his scrambling. That is slightly more than one completion every two games, but the number is also somewhat deceptive, because four of the completions came in the SEC championship game against South Carolina alone. Take those out and Newton had only three scramble completions in nine FBS contests. While his completion percentage is high, the low volume of attempts is not exactly proof positive that he is a passing threat on the run.
Comes up very short in 'The Parcells Rules' for drafting quarterbacks
In his long tenure as a successful talent evaluator, Bill Parcells came up with a set of seven criteria he used when drafting quarterbacks. These include: being a three-year starter, a senior in college, a college graduate, starting 30 games, winning 23 games, having a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a completion rate of 60 percent.
These are a high set of standards, but quarterbacks who meet them have superb NFL track records.
For proof, consider the first-round draft picks who have met those criteria in the BCS era (1999-2010): Byron Leftwich, Matt Leinart, Eli Manning, Chad Pennington, Philip Rivers and Tim Tebow. Four of those quarterbacks have led their teams to playoff berths, and one has won the Super Bowl.
Now check out how Newton stacks up in these areas: He is a one-year FBS starter and a junior who did not graduate college. He started 14 games, had 14 wins, posted a 30-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a completion rate of 65.4 percent.
That means he meets only two of the seven criteria -- the touchdown-to-interception ratio and the completion percentage. He falls far short of meeting the Parcells bar.
High volume of coaching changes
Newton has had four offensive coordinators in his six high school and college seasons. That number will increase to five in seven seasons once he reaches the pros.
Recent history offers two high-profile quarterbacks with a similar volume of play-caller changes -- Jason Campbell and Alex Smith. Both had seven offensive coordinators in the past ten college/NFL seasons. Those constant changes are often noted as a primary reason that neither has reached his potential. It certainly does not offer much in the way of encouragement that Newton can overcome this obstacle.
Coachability
The obvious counterargument to those who say Newton's mechanics issues will disappear with NFL-caliber coaching is to ask why they haven't disappeared with his previous coaches. It's not as if former Florida Gators head coach Urban Meyer or Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn lacked the ability to teach Newton proper drop mechanics.
Newton meets only two of the seven criteria -- the touchdown to interception ratio and the completion percentage -- that falls far short of topping the Parcells bar.
There was also an issue that showed up on tape that brings Newton's coachability into question.
In the Clemson game, Newton executed a pump fake with which he went through an entire throwing motion to sell the pass. The fake took way too long and Auburn's coaches evidently addressed this because the next time Newton tried it, he didn't use the full follow-through.
That would be great news on the coachability front, but his new pump fake (used in the Kentucky contest) had significant flaws as well. Newton did a shoulder shrug to sell the upward body motion, but he still stepped forward and had to reset his feet to make the actual throw. That extra set of steps slowed the process nearly as much as the full throwing motion, and is almost certainly not what the Tigers coaches taught him to do.
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There are also the numerous questions about Newton's leadership and possible mindset. Most of this revolves around his well-publicized off-field issues (e.g., the laptop, his father's supposed attempt to sell his services, the "entertainer and icon" verbal faux pas) but the real question is whether his ego can handle NFL-caliber hazing.
To put it another way, what will Newton's reaction be if his new teammates decide to give him the same kind of haircut the Denver Broncos gave Tebow last preseason? This type of thing is often done to potential prima donnas to bring them back down to earth, and Newton's sensitive reaction to tough questioning by teams at the NFL combine suggests he might not handle this well. If that is the case, it could fracture his leadership role on the team right off the bat.
Add the items listed above to the three question marks in the initial article and you have ten potentially significant issues for the team that drafts Newton.
Newton has a shot at being successful. He has the talent to get past just about all of the issues, and the personality questions can also be diminished by simply pointing to his young age. But this was a debate about whether he is a first-round pick. If he can't overcome these issues, Newton could really struggle. And NFL talent evaluators ignore this at their own risk.
Seven more reasons Newton could have a very difficult NFL transition
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
There have been a number of retorts to last week's article that said Cam Newton should not be a first-round pick in the 2011 NFL draft.
The gist of most of them is that whatever mechanical issues Newton has that currently make him a less-than-polished pro prospect could be overcome with NFL-caliber coaching.
That is certainly a valid point, but as noted near the end of the article, the three items listed there were only part of a much larger array of question marks.
To be more specific, there are at least seven other issues of note for any team that drafts Newton. And again, I am not saying that Newton shouldn't be drafted or is destined to be a bust. I am questioning the premise that he should be an ironclad lock for the first round. Here are more reasons:
Limited experience in reading defenses
Newton basically ran a one-read offense at Auburn and wasn't asked to go through the complex read progressions he'll have to go through in the NFL.
One way to illustrate this is by noting that he threw only 12 checkdown-type passes in nine games against FBS opponents. A checkdown is usually a throw of last resort at the end of the reading progression, and his low attempt volume here should be a reason for concern. At Auburn, if Newton didn't find his receiver, he usually just tucked the ball and ran. While this may have worked in college, it won't be as effective in the NFL, where linebackers will be far better suited to punish him for that decision.
His experience questions are compounded by fact that just over 20 percent of his throws against FBS teams last year were screen passes. A screen is really a rush attempt in disguise and thus doesn't call for much in the way of reading a defense.
Limited evidence of an ability to hit passes when forced to scramble
It is assumed that Newton can be a playmaker through the air when he is forced to leave the pocket. He possesses that ability, but the 2010 season offered little in the way of metric evidence of that skill.
Newton did complete 7 of 11 passes against FBS teams last year on plays in which his receivers had to adjust their routes because of his scrambling. That is slightly more than one completion every two games, but the number is also somewhat deceptive, because four of the completions came in the SEC championship game against South Carolina alone. Take those out and Newton had only three scramble completions in nine FBS contests. While his completion percentage is high, the low volume of attempts is not exactly proof positive that he is a passing threat on the run.
Comes up very short in 'The Parcells Rules' for drafting quarterbacks
In his long tenure as a successful talent evaluator, Bill Parcells came up with a set of seven criteria he used when drafting quarterbacks. These include: being a three-year starter, a senior in college, a college graduate, starting 30 games, winning 23 games, having a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a completion rate of 60 percent.
These are a high set of standards, but quarterbacks who meet them have superb NFL track records.
For proof, consider the first-round draft picks who have met those criteria in the BCS era (1999-2010): Byron Leftwich, Matt Leinart, Eli Manning, Chad Pennington, Philip Rivers and Tim Tebow. Four of those quarterbacks have led their teams to playoff berths, and one has won the Super Bowl.
Now check out how Newton stacks up in these areas: He is a one-year FBS starter and a junior who did not graduate college. He started 14 games, had 14 wins, posted a 30-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a completion rate of 65.4 percent.
That means he meets only two of the seven criteria -- the touchdown-to-interception ratio and the completion percentage. He falls far short of meeting the Parcells bar.
High volume of coaching changes
Newton has had four offensive coordinators in his six high school and college seasons. That number will increase to five in seven seasons once he reaches the pros.
Recent history offers two high-profile quarterbacks with a similar volume of play-caller changes -- Jason Campbell and Alex Smith. Both had seven offensive coordinators in the past ten college/NFL seasons. Those constant changes are often noted as a primary reason that neither has reached his potential. It certainly does not offer much in the way of encouragement that Newton can overcome this obstacle.
Coachability
The obvious counterargument to those who say Newton's mechanics issues will disappear with NFL-caliber coaching is to ask why they haven't disappeared with his previous coaches. It's not as if former Florida Gators head coach Urban Meyer or Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn lacked the ability to teach Newton proper drop mechanics.
Newton meets only two of the seven criteria -- the touchdown to interception ratio and the completion percentage -- that falls far short of topping the Parcells bar.
There was also an issue that showed up on tape that brings Newton's coachability into question.
In the Clemson game, Newton executed a pump fake with which he went through an entire throwing motion to sell the pass. The fake took way too long and Auburn's coaches evidently addressed this because the next time Newton tried it, he didn't use the full follow-through.
That would be great news on the coachability front, but his new pump fake (used in the Kentucky contest) had significant flaws as well. Newton did a shoulder shrug to sell the upward body motion, but he still stepped forward and had to reset his feet to make the actual throw. That extra set of steps slowed the process nearly as much as the full throwing motion, and is almost certainly not what the Tigers coaches taught him to do.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There are also the numerous questions about Newton's leadership and possible mindset. Most of this revolves around his well-publicized off-field issues (e.g., the laptop, his father's supposed attempt to sell his services, the "entertainer and icon" verbal faux pas) but the real question is whether his ego can handle NFL-caliber hazing.
To put it another way, what will Newton's reaction be if his new teammates decide to give him the same kind of haircut the Denver Broncos gave Tebow last preseason? This type of thing is often done to potential prima donnas to bring them back down to earth, and Newton's sensitive reaction to tough questioning by teams at the NFL combine suggests he might not handle this well. If that is the case, it could fracture his leadership role on the team right off the bat.
Add the items listed above to the three question marks in the initial article and you have ten potentially significant issues for the team that drafts Newton.
Newton has a shot at being successful. He has the talent to get past just about all of the issues, and the personality questions can also be diminished by simply pointing to his young age. But this was a debate about whether he is a first-round pick. If he can't overcome these issues, Newton could really struggle. And NFL talent evaluators ignore this at their own risk.
