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Another combine shows that not working out can often be the best way to go
By Mel Kiper
ESPN.com
It's pretty fair to say I have mixed feelings about the NFL combine. After all, I'm the guy on record as saying I don't know why quarterbacks even bother to throw for scouts and coaches there. In Indy you have very few reps, you're throwing to a mix of guys you've never worked with, and the setup can result in guys to be penalized for not overthrowing a little. Pro days and postseason All-Star games offer a lot more in terms of evaluations.
That said, nobody should be naive enough to believe the combine has no lasting effect. Those 40 times stick, and shockingly good and surprisingly bad performances are often cited on draft day. I don't think it's the most important event by any means, but it's a part of the equation nonetheless. So, per tradition, let's highlight the week's biggest winners and those who lost some points:
Gained ground
Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
The whole week amounted to a really smart calculation for Gabbert. He opted not to throw which, again, won't hurt him at all, given that his accuracy and throwing fundamentals aren't the big concerns around him. What he did do, such as run the 40 only three-hundredths of a second slower than Cam Newton and Jake Locker -- guys lauded for their athleticism -- dispelled the notion that he is a greatly inferior athlete. By all reports, his interviews didn't raise red flags. Gabbert leaves Indy with many convinced he's the quarterback from this class most ready to help an NFL team win games. Those guys don't last long on draft day.
Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
We all felt Peterson was a safe bet to be a top-5 pick before he arrived in Indy. He leaves with a real shot to be the No. 1 overall pick. A 4.34 time in the 40 is one thing, but Peterson did it while carrying 219 pounds, making him the epitome of a guy with corner speed and safety size. There isn't a place you could put him in your secondary and not get results. Peterson had piles of good tape; now he has that great 40 tattooed to him through the rest of this process.
Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
Kerrigan has fought the "tweener" label -- he projects better as a 3-4 outside linebacker yet might not be athletic enough to man that position. But he showed solid athleticism in drills, ran a 4.71 in the 40 and weighed in a couple pounds heavier than Robert Quinn with very similar workouts. Given how he couldn't be blocked in 2010, I think he allayed fears about his athleticism. The motor has never been a question.
Cameron Jordan, DE, Cal
The consensus on Jordan is that he's a guy who could help a team early in his career. What he showed in Indy is that he has the size to man the 3-4 defensive end spot, but even at 6-foot-4, 287 pounds, he has the athleticism to hold up as a strongside 4-3 defensive end. When you are a sharp player, show great versatility and athleticism and have teams convinced you're ready to help, you probably won't last past around pick No. 15.
Edmund Gates, WR, Abilene Christian
Few positions see a bigger boost than when a wideout takes home the top 40 time in Indy. Gates ran a 4.37, also shined in workouts and is a bigger player than another recent Abilene Christian product, the Bears' Johnny Knox.
Jordan Todman, RB, Connecticut
The draft class at running back isn't helped by the fact that many teams have more than one running back on their rosters they feel they can win with. But in a class that was already weak, Todman jumped. He ran a 4.40 in the 40 and was among the top performers in a number of other workouts, highlighting his athleticism. He's one of the few guys in this class who scouts feel can make NFL defenders miss, and at 203 pounds, he isn't a total scat back.
Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
There aren't many questions about Amukamara's ability to cover. He's a sound technician at corner and has elite ball skills and instincts. There were questions about his speed. And though his "unofficial" 4.37 time in the 40 eventually dipped to 4.43, Amukamara was a solid 206 pounds. Teams will see a ready-made starter, as they should.
Notables
Mario Fannin of Auburn ran a 4.38 at 231 pounds. Hard not to notice that number. ... Ricardo Lockette showed off a lot of speed, matching the time of Gates, though his workouts weren't as up to par. ... Julio Jones ran a 4.39 and was a stud in workouts. My issue: his durability is a real question. ... Stephen Paea's record on the bench should further help his profile as an anchor D-tackle who can't be moved on the inside. Von Miller's workouts impressed, as did fellow linebacker Martez Wilson. Both should move up. ... In a weak tight end class, Robert Housler's 4.55 could get him bumped up on some boards. ... Marvin Austin showed a lot of athleticism. He is back in the first-round mix.
Lost ground
Ricky Stanzi, QB, Iowa
When a guy comes in with high marks for smarts and accuracy and lower marks for arm strength, you expect to see some added zip on the deep ball and really good marks on the underneath stuff. Instead, most people saw Stanzi missing on throws and even seemingly tweaking the motion he employed at Iowa. For whatever reason, he was off. It's also another reason I don't see why quarterbacks seem so intent to work out.
Jeremy Beal, OLB, Oklahoma
He played defensive end for Oklahoma, but at 262 pounds, he's a better fit for the 3-4 outside linebacker position. The trick, of course, for that conversion is to show off athletically and convince scouts you have the explosiveness to pass-rush but also the overall athleticism to cover and get into your drops. Beal didn't score high marks in any area, and without much experience at linebacker, he now seems like more of a project.
Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
I don't think Newton will take much of a draft hit -- he's still a safe good bet for the top 10 on my board. But after all the somewhat unfair hype surrounding the earlier comments he'd made, he was under a big microscope and it showed. He looked too pumped up during workouts and overshot some basic routes. Nobody is questioning Newton's arm strength, so it's going to be the simpler stuff that concerns scouts. Can he make the easy throws? Can he show improved footwork? I'm not concerned about Newton's stock, but it seemed like all the hoopla got to him a little during workouts.
Ahmad Black, S, Florida
As an undersized safety, Black had to show off some speed, and he didn't get it done. While he has some really good tape and is a great competitor, when you're playing in the 180- to 190-pound range, a best time of 4.74 in the 40 won't help.
Vincent Brown, WR, San Diego State
Brown was always going to be a bit of a sleeper, but he needed to put up combine numbers that could match his gaudy stats and he really didn't impress. His stock will take a hit.
Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
Ayers got pegged as a really impressive physical talent with a lot of range, but you wouldn't know it as other linebackers who have less of a reputation outperformed him in the drills. His 40 time -- neither run could get below 4.80 -- didn't do him any favors. When much of your upside is dependent on people assuming you have all the physical tools, a showing like this will hurt.
Notables
North Carolina wideout Greg Little has the size, but his speed remains a question. I don't think he's in the first-round mix. ... Allen Bailey didn't show a lot of improvement for Miami in 2010, and there are concerns about how much he can develop. ... Ras-I Dowling has the tape and looks the part of a starting NFL corner, but he tweaked a hamstring and may have officially been assigned the "injury risk" tag. ... It's not much of a concern, but Nick Fairley was shorter and lighter than anybody had him listed.
By Mel Kiper
ESPN.com
It's pretty fair to say I have mixed feelings about the NFL combine. After all, I'm the guy on record as saying I don't know why quarterbacks even bother to throw for scouts and coaches there. In Indy you have very few reps, you're throwing to a mix of guys you've never worked with, and the setup can result in guys to be penalized for not overthrowing a little. Pro days and postseason All-Star games offer a lot more in terms of evaluations.
That said, nobody should be naive enough to believe the combine has no lasting effect. Those 40 times stick, and shockingly good and surprisingly bad performances are often cited on draft day. I don't think it's the most important event by any means, but it's a part of the equation nonetheless. So, per tradition, let's highlight the week's biggest winners and those who lost some points:
Gained ground
Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
The whole week amounted to a really smart calculation for Gabbert. He opted not to throw which, again, won't hurt him at all, given that his accuracy and throwing fundamentals aren't the big concerns around him. What he did do, such as run the 40 only three-hundredths of a second slower than Cam Newton and Jake Locker -- guys lauded for their athleticism -- dispelled the notion that he is a greatly inferior athlete. By all reports, his interviews didn't raise red flags. Gabbert leaves Indy with many convinced he's the quarterback from this class most ready to help an NFL team win games. Those guys don't last long on draft day.
Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
We all felt Peterson was a safe bet to be a top-5 pick before he arrived in Indy. He leaves with a real shot to be the No. 1 overall pick. A 4.34 time in the 40 is one thing, but Peterson did it while carrying 219 pounds, making him the epitome of a guy with corner speed and safety size. There isn't a place you could put him in your secondary and not get results. Peterson had piles of good tape; now he has that great 40 tattooed to him through the rest of this process.
Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
Kerrigan has fought the "tweener" label -- he projects better as a 3-4 outside linebacker yet might not be athletic enough to man that position. But he showed solid athleticism in drills, ran a 4.71 in the 40 and weighed in a couple pounds heavier than Robert Quinn with very similar workouts. Given how he couldn't be blocked in 2010, I think he allayed fears about his athleticism. The motor has never been a question.
Cameron Jordan, DE, Cal
The consensus on Jordan is that he's a guy who could help a team early in his career. What he showed in Indy is that he has the size to man the 3-4 defensive end spot, but even at 6-foot-4, 287 pounds, he has the athleticism to hold up as a strongside 4-3 defensive end. When you are a sharp player, show great versatility and athleticism and have teams convinced you're ready to help, you probably won't last past around pick No. 15.
Edmund Gates, WR, Abilene Christian
Few positions see a bigger boost than when a wideout takes home the top 40 time in Indy. Gates ran a 4.37, also shined in workouts and is a bigger player than another recent Abilene Christian product, the Bears' Johnny Knox.
Jordan Todman, RB, Connecticut
The draft class at running back isn't helped by the fact that many teams have more than one running back on their rosters they feel they can win with. But in a class that was already weak, Todman jumped. He ran a 4.40 in the 40 and was among the top performers in a number of other workouts, highlighting his athleticism. He's one of the few guys in this class who scouts feel can make NFL defenders miss, and at 203 pounds, he isn't a total scat back.
Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
There aren't many questions about Amukamara's ability to cover. He's a sound technician at corner and has elite ball skills and instincts. There were questions about his speed. And though his "unofficial" 4.37 time in the 40 eventually dipped to 4.43, Amukamara was a solid 206 pounds. Teams will see a ready-made starter, as they should.
Notables
Mario Fannin of Auburn ran a 4.38 at 231 pounds. Hard not to notice that number. ... Ricardo Lockette showed off a lot of speed, matching the time of Gates, though his workouts weren't as up to par. ... Julio Jones ran a 4.39 and was a stud in workouts. My issue: his durability is a real question. ... Stephen Paea's record on the bench should further help his profile as an anchor D-tackle who can't be moved on the inside. Von Miller's workouts impressed, as did fellow linebacker Martez Wilson. Both should move up. ... In a weak tight end class, Robert Housler's 4.55 could get him bumped up on some boards. ... Marvin Austin showed a lot of athleticism. He is back in the first-round mix.
Lost ground
Ricky Stanzi, QB, Iowa
When a guy comes in with high marks for smarts and accuracy and lower marks for arm strength, you expect to see some added zip on the deep ball and really good marks on the underneath stuff. Instead, most people saw Stanzi missing on throws and even seemingly tweaking the motion he employed at Iowa. For whatever reason, he was off. It's also another reason I don't see why quarterbacks seem so intent to work out.
Jeremy Beal, OLB, Oklahoma
He played defensive end for Oklahoma, but at 262 pounds, he's a better fit for the 3-4 outside linebacker position. The trick, of course, for that conversion is to show off athletically and convince scouts you have the explosiveness to pass-rush but also the overall athleticism to cover and get into your drops. Beal didn't score high marks in any area, and without much experience at linebacker, he now seems like more of a project.
Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
I don't think Newton will take much of a draft hit -- he's still a safe good bet for the top 10 on my board. But after all the somewhat unfair hype surrounding the earlier comments he'd made, he was under a big microscope and it showed. He looked too pumped up during workouts and overshot some basic routes. Nobody is questioning Newton's arm strength, so it's going to be the simpler stuff that concerns scouts. Can he make the easy throws? Can he show improved footwork? I'm not concerned about Newton's stock, but it seemed like all the hoopla got to him a little during workouts.
Ahmad Black, S, Florida
As an undersized safety, Black had to show off some speed, and he didn't get it done. While he has some really good tape and is a great competitor, when you're playing in the 180- to 190-pound range, a best time of 4.74 in the 40 won't help.
Vincent Brown, WR, San Diego State
Brown was always going to be a bit of a sleeper, but he needed to put up combine numbers that could match his gaudy stats and he really didn't impress. His stock will take a hit.
Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
Ayers got pegged as a really impressive physical talent with a lot of range, but you wouldn't know it as other linebackers who have less of a reputation outperformed him in the drills. His 40 time -- neither run could get below 4.80 -- didn't do him any favors. When much of your upside is dependent on people assuming you have all the physical tools, a showing like this will hurt.
Notables
North Carolina wideout Greg Little has the size, but his speed remains a question. I don't think he's in the first-round mix. ... Allen Bailey didn't show a lot of improvement for Miami in 2010, and there are concerns about how much he can develop. ... Ras-I Dowling has the tape and looks the part of a starting NFL corner, but he tweaked a hamstring and may have officially been assigned the "injury risk" tag. ... It's not much of a concern, but Nick Fairley was shorter and lighter than anybody had him listed.