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Dennis Dillon
Sporting News
Cameron Jordan is one of several impact defensive lineman available in the 2011 NFL Draft.
On the eve of the NFL Scouting Combine, we approached three draft experts who grind hundreds of hours of game film and have sources front offices throughout the league—NFL Network's Mike Mayock, ESPN's Todd McShay and Sporting News' Russ Lande—to help us answer 10 pressing questions about the 2011 draft class.
1. Which is the deepest position in the draft?
Mayock says: "Without a doubt, it's defensive line. You could possibly give first-round grades to as many as nine ends, and I think seven or eight will go (in Round 1). And with all these 3-4 NFL teams, that end known as the '5-technique' is hard to find. This year, there are several good ones. Most of them played as a 4-3 end in college, but because of their length and their size they fit ideally for the 3-4 teams. J.J. Watt (Wisconsin), Cameron Jordan (Cal), Cameron Heyward (Ohio State)—those guys are ideal 5-techniques. Those three plus Da'Quan Bowers (Clemson), Adrian Clayborn (Iowa), Robert Quinn (North Carolina), Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue) and Aldon Smith (Missouri) probably get first-round grades right now."
2. Why are so many underclassmen rated as first-round picks?
Lande says: "I think it's an outstanding year for juniors. Also, a lot of those guys have been told repeatedly in the last year that once this lockout happens, there's going to be a rookie wage scale. A lot of these top guys—like (Auburn defensive tackle) Nick Fairley or (Alabama defensive tackle) Marcell Dareus—would have liked to have stayed another year, but they got convinced that if you stay another year and you're a top-three pick, instead of getting $20 million guaranteed you get $4 million. I think the combination of just so many good ones, a chance to be high picks and the rookie cap being pounded into their ears have led to so many (underclassmen) of the elite status coming out this year."
3. Where are all the elite quarterbacks?
McShay says: "Andrew Luck was going to be that premier No. 1-overall guy, and next year I assume he'll be kind of locked into that spot. From the standpoint of premier quarterbacks, this year's class does not stack up. I still think it's a fascinating class of quarterbacks. If you asked people three months ago, nobody was talking about (Missouri's) Blaine Gabbert. I gave him a first-round grade based on his sophomore tape, and I thought he continued to get a lot better. He's not where you want to see an elite quarterback, but I think he's a lot closer than people give him credit for. Cam Newton (Auburn) has absolutely phenomenal physical tools, but he needs time to develop. Jake Locker (Washington) had the worst-case scenario this year between injuries and regressing and becoming more mechanical. But he still has the athleticism, the size and the arm strength. There are some other guys: (Arkansas') Ryan Mallett, (TCU's) Andy Dalton, (Florida State's) Christian Ponder, (Iowa's) Ricky Stanzi. I think this class is a lot deeper than anyone gives it credit for."
4. How do the wide receivers measure up?
Lande says: "It's not a real deep draft in terms of receivers. Alabama's Julio Jones is probably the biggest, most physical of the receivers—and it's not even close. I think Georgia's A.J. Green is a better prospect, but he's not as physical a player. He reminds me of Randy Moss. There aren't many 6-3, 6-4 receivers who can accelerate, who can run routes like him, can change directions so easily and can adjust and make tough catches. He's a really special talent, and I can't envision him getting out of the top five. There may not be another receiver in the first round. It may be just those two."
5. What does Newton have to prove to NFL scouts?
Mayock says: "No. 1, he's going to have to show people in the meeting rooms that he can process and assimilate information, and give you confidence that in a fairly short period of time he's going to be able to handle an NFL-style passing offense. The second thing—and to me this is as important as anything there is about quarterbacks—what's his character? Is he going to be the first guy in the building every morning? Does he have the inner drive to make him want to be the best quarterback in the league every single day? Is he going to watch more tape than the quarterbacks coach? And if the answer to any of those questions is no, you probably don't want him."
6. Why isn't Alabama's Mark Ingram going to be a top-10 pick?
McShay says: "You look at him and he's 5-10, he's going to run (the 40) in the 4.5s, and he's coming off a knee injury from earlier this season. So he's not your ideal measurable guy or someone from a durability standpoint. There are going to be more impressive guys working out. But Mark Ingram has the instincts, the lateral quickness and the yards after contact that are so important in the NFL. I think that's what separates him from the rest of the group."
7. Which small-school player is intriguing?
Lande says: "Kenrick Ellis, a defensive tackle from Hampton, is a monstrous man. He weighed in at 6-5, 334 pounds—and no fat. I watched four games (of tape), and he's just a human wrecking ball. In one of the games, he had 16 tackles. He has first-round ability, first-round strength, but he's very raw and doesn't know what he's doing in terms of technique. But you just don't find big guys who can compete hard and are that strong and athletic."
8. Which player is the safest pick?
McShay says: "I would say (Texas A&M's) Von Miller. He's going to have to undergo some sort of a position change from the hybrid defensive end/outside linebacker to a full-time outside linebacker. If you can get after the quarterback, if you play with this type of motor and have his kind of freakish physical tools and just love playing the game ... guys like that get to the NFL and they jump out right away. I think he's going to be one of the premier players on his team on defense for several years in the NFL."
9. Who are three players who could be risky picks?
Lande says: "Cam Newton. Although he's a very gifted guy, there are a lot of baggage questions from his time at Florida and the junior college. Colorado offensive tackle Nate Solder. He reminds me of that great athlete who's so raw and technically terrible that he gets beaten. Nebraska cornerback Prince Amukamara. Most games, he was outstanding. But in two games against two elite receivers, they just abused him. If you're going to be a legit NFL corner, you should be shutting them down.
10. Who will be picked No. 1 overall?
Mayock says: "I kind of laugh at all these mock drafts right now and all the 'positioning' going on. The NFL teams don't even know what their boards are. What I would tell you is that Marcell Dareus, the nose tackle from Alabama, will be rated higher than Nick Fairley on some teams' boards. If you're a team with a quarterback need, I guarantee you're grinding Blaine Gabbert real hard. I think Da'Quan Bowers and Von Miller are explosive edge rushers, but Miller probably is more suited for a 3-4 team. LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson is a pretty special kid. Keep an eye on all those names."
Sporting News
Cameron Jordan is one of several impact defensive lineman available in the 2011 NFL Draft.
On the eve of the NFL Scouting Combine, we approached three draft experts who grind hundreds of hours of game film and have sources front offices throughout the league—NFL Network's Mike Mayock, ESPN's Todd McShay and Sporting News' Russ Lande—to help us answer 10 pressing questions about the 2011 draft class.
1. Which is the deepest position in the draft?
Mayock says: "Without a doubt, it's defensive line. You could possibly give first-round grades to as many as nine ends, and I think seven or eight will go (in Round 1). And with all these 3-4 NFL teams, that end known as the '5-technique' is hard to find. This year, there are several good ones. Most of them played as a 4-3 end in college, but because of their length and their size they fit ideally for the 3-4 teams. J.J. Watt (Wisconsin), Cameron Jordan (Cal), Cameron Heyward (Ohio State)—those guys are ideal 5-techniques. Those three plus Da'Quan Bowers (Clemson), Adrian Clayborn (Iowa), Robert Quinn (North Carolina), Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue) and Aldon Smith (Missouri) probably get first-round grades right now."
2. Why are so many underclassmen rated as first-round picks?
Lande says: "I think it's an outstanding year for juniors. Also, a lot of those guys have been told repeatedly in the last year that once this lockout happens, there's going to be a rookie wage scale. A lot of these top guys—like (Auburn defensive tackle) Nick Fairley or (Alabama defensive tackle) Marcell Dareus—would have liked to have stayed another year, but they got convinced that if you stay another year and you're a top-three pick, instead of getting $20 million guaranteed you get $4 million. I think the combination of just so many good ones, a chance to be high picks and the rookie cap being pounded into their ears have led to so many (underclassmen) of the elite status coming out this year."
3. Where are all the elite quarterbacks?
McShay says: "Andrew Luck was going to be that premier No. 1-overall guy, and next year I assume he'll be kind of locked into that spot. From the standpoint of premier quarterbacks, this year's class does not stack up. I still think it's a fascinating class of quarterbacks. If you asked people three months ago, nobody was talking about (Missouri's) Blaine Gabbert. I gave him a first-round grade based on his sophomore tape, and I thought he continued to get a lot better. He's not where you want to see an elite quarterback, but I think he's a lot closer than people give him credit for. Cam Newton (Auburn) has absolutely phenomenal physical tools, but he needs time to develop. Jake Locker (Washington) had the worst-case scenario this year between injuries and regressing and becoming more mechanical. But he still has the athleticism, the size and the arm strength. There are some other guys: (Arkansas') Ryan Mallett, (TCU's) Andy Dalton, (Florida State's) Christian Ponder, (Iowa's) Ricky Stanzi. I think this class is a lot deeper than anyone gives it credit for."
4. How do the wide receivers measure up?
Lande says: "It's not a real deep draft in terms of receivers. Alabama's Julio Jones is probably the biggest, most physical of the receivers—and it's not even close. I think Georgia's A.J. Green is a better prospect, but he's not as physical a player. He reminds me of Randy Moss. There aren't many 6-3, 6-4 receivers who can accelerate, who can run routes like him, can change directions so easily and can adjust and make tough catches. He's a really special talent, and I can't envision him getting out of the top five. There may not be another receiver in the first round. It may be just those two."
5. What does Newton have to prove to NFL scouts?
Mayock says: "No. 1, he's going to have to show people in the meeting rooms that he can process and assimilate information, and give you confidence that in a fairly short period of time he's going to be able to handle an NFL-style passing offense. The second thing—and to me this is as important as anything there is about quarterbacks—what's his character? Is he going to be the first guy in the building every morning? Does he have the inner drive to make him want to be the best quarterback in the league every single day? Is he going to watch more tape than the quarterbacks coach? And if the answer to any of those questions is no, you probably don't want him."
6. Why isn't Alabama's Mark Ingram going to be a top-10 pick?
McShay says: "You look at him and he's 5-10, he's going to run (the 40) in the 4.5s, and he's coming off a knee injury from earlier this season. So he's not your ideal measurable guy or someone from a durability standpoint. There are going to be more impressive guys working out. But Mark Ingram has the instincts, the lateral quickness and the yards after contact that are so important in the NFL. I think that's what separates him from the rest of the group."
7. Which small-school player is intriguing?
Lande says: "Kenrick Ellis, a defensive tackle from Hampton, is a monstrous man. He weighed in at 6-5, 334 pounds—and no fat. I watched four games (of tape), and he's just a human wrecking ball. In one of the games, he had 16 tackles. He has first-round ability, first-round strength, but he's very raw and doesn't know what he's doing in terms of technique. But you just don't find big guys who can compete hard and are that strong and athletic."
8. Which player is the safest pick?
McShay says: "I would say (Texas A&M's) Von Miller. He's going to have to undergo some sort of a position change from the hybrid defensive end/outside linebacker to a full-time outside linebacker. If you can get after the quarterback, if you play with this type of motor and have his kind of freakish physical tools and just love playing the game ... guys like that get to the NFL and they jump out right away. I think he's going to be one of the premier players on his team on defense for several years in the NFL."
9. Who are three players who could be risky picks?
Lande says: "Cam Newton. Although he's a very gifted guy, there are a lot of baggage questions from his time at Florida and the junior college. Colorado offensive tackle Nate Solder. He reminds me of that great athlete who's so raw and technically terrible that he gets beaten. Nebraska cornerback Prince Amukamara. Most games, he was outstanding. But in two games against two elite receivers, they just abused him. If you're going to be a legit NFL corner, you should be shutting them down.
10. Who will be picked No. 1 overall?
Mayock says: "I kind of laugh at all these mock drafts right now and all the 'positioning' going on. The NFL teams don't even know what their boards are. What I would tell you is that Marcell Dareus, the nose tackle from Alabama, will be rated higher than Nick Fairley on some teams' boards. If you're a team with a quarterback need, I guarantee you're grinding Blaine Gabbert real hard. I think Da'Quan Bowers and Von Miller are explosive edge rushers, but Miller probably is more suited for a 3-4 team. LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson is a pretty special kid. Keep an eye on all those names."
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