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Todd McShay
Scouts Inc.
Mocking the quarterbacks
I unveiled my third mock draft for 2011 earlier this week. The top 10 picks are particularly intriguing at this point because several teams have high-priority needs at the same positions -- and supply does not meet demand in most cases.
Before we project forward, let's take a quick look back at the number of players from all positions who have been selected in the top 10 of the last 10 drafts:
Quarterback: 15
Offensive tackle: 15
Wide receiver: 14
Defensive tackle: 14
Defensive end: 11
Cornerback: 8
Running back: 8
Linebacker: 7
Safety: 6
Tight end: 2
Teams that have been most successful drafting in the top 10 have paid close attention to positional value. There are four impact positions worthy a the high pick: quarterback, offensive tackle, pass-rusher (DE/OLB/DT) and cornerback, in that order.
Starting at the top of that list of four, it should surprise no one that demand exceeds supply in terms of potential top-10 quarterbacks in 2011. Andrew Luck returned to school, while Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett have seen their stock plummet since the beginning of the 2010 season, so it's slim pickings for top-10 teams looking for help under center.
An argument could be made that the following seven teams picking in the top 10 this year have at least some interest in a quarterback:
No. 1 Carolina
No. 3 Buffalo
No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 5 Arizona
No. 6 Cleveland
No. 7 San Francisco
No. 8 Tennessee
However, at this point, we at Scouts Inc. rate only Missouri's Blaine Gabbert and Auburn's Cam Newton as likely top-10 picks. Gabbert went to Arizona and Newton to Washington in my latest mock, and while both will need time to transition to pro-style offenses they certainly have plenty of upside based on their physical tools, and Newton's recent workout showing in front of the media has helped his case.
Help available up front?
The quarterback shortage detailed above and that there is no offensive tackle currently in the top 10 and that WR A.J. Green is in the top 10 based on his incredible physical tools mean there are seven other top-10 picks to fill from two remaining impact positions.
Two of the pass-rush positions are holding up their end of the bargain with DEs Da'Quan Bowers and J.J Watt and OLB Von Miller all in the top 10, but there is likely to be a little more trepidation when teams look at the top defensive tackles on the board.
Nick Fairley and Marcell Dareus are supremely talented and have no major character concerns, but Fairley had one productive year at the FCS level and Dareus dealt with a two-game suspension and some nagging injuries in 2010, and history says taking a defensive tackle early is a risky bet.
Between 1994 (when the Bengals took Dan Wilkinson with the top overall pick) and 2007 (the most recent draft class we have fully evaluated), eight defensive tackles were taken in the top six, and only two of them can be considered hits.
Wilkinson and Richard Seymour justified high picks but Darrell Russell, Gerard Warren, Dewayne Robertson, Johnathan Sullivan, Ryan Sims and Corey Simon ultimately failed to live up to expectations.
One of the biggest concerns, and perhaps one of the reasons highly rated defensive tackles struggle in the NFL, is that there are very few good athletes at 300-plus pounds in college and players such as Fairley and Dareus often dominate based solely on natural ability.
That's often not the case in the NFL, where having to bring a lunch pail for 40 or 50 snaps per game can be a shock to the system. Those interior linemen they face at the next level were probably tackles in college and have spent plenty of time working on technique and a lot of other little things since becoming pros. It takes a special player to handle that step up in competition.
Right or wrong, all of that will factor in when scouts and front-office personnel evaluate this year's top tackles. I still have Fairley and Dareus among my top six picks, but they are far from sure things.
Better luck at CB?
History is not quite as frightening at cornerback, which has had 14 players drafted in the top 10 between 1994-2007.
Five players from that group -- Terence Newman, Quentin Jammer Champ Bailey, Chris McAlister and Charles Woodson -- have been good to elite players.
Three others -- Dunta Robinson, Shawn Springs and Duane Starks -- were solid but drafted a bit high.
The remaining six -- Adam Jones, Carlos Rogers, DeAngelo Hall, Bryant Westbrook, Tommy Knight and Antonio Langham -- were disappointing for various reasons, including character, injuries and poor fits with teams.
Teams hitting on eight of 14 corners over that span should make teams a little more comfortable with our top three corners for 2011.
Patrick Peterson is an elite prospect with the ability to contribute in the return game, Prince Amukamara has great instincts and tools and Jimmy Smith has very good size, and none of the three come with durability or character concerns.
All that helped them round out my top 10 and should alleviate some of the uneasiness teams might feel when deciding which direction to go with their picks.
Steve Muench's Stock Report
Up: Georgia ILB Akeem Dent -- Dent's instincts are just adequate and he has limitations in coverage but he is a downhill run-stopper who's not afraid to meet lead blockers in the hole. His toughness and ability to close on the ball in run pursuit stood out during practice leading up to the East-West Shrine Game, and Dent jumped out again during my evaluation of Georgia Tech OT Nick Claytor earlier this week. Dent stepped up and put Claytor on his back on a play late in the second quarter of that game, showing the kind of explosive power that should make him a late-fourth- or early-fifth-round pick.
Down: Ohio State DE/DT Cameron Heyward -- Heyward underwent left elbow surgery in January that kept him out of the Senior Bowl and could limit or prevent him from participating in drills at the NFL combine. Meanwhile, two defensive ends Heyward is in direct competition with have seen their stock rise since the season ended. Like Heyward, California's Cameron Jordan and Temple's Muhammad Wilkerson can line up as a 3-technique in a base 3-4 front. Jordan shined at the Senior Bowl, showing violent hands and a non-stop motor in the process, while Wilkerson's film indicates he is stronger than Heyward at the point of attack.
Kevin Weidl's Stock Report
Up: Oregon OLB Casey Matthews -- He lacks elite size and range and struggles at times to get off blocks, but Matthews has tremendous toughness and instincts. He reads his keys well and was consistently the first defender reacting to the ball on film. He's also a fundamentally sound tackler with good awareness and range in underneath zone coverage; he times pressures well and makes a lot of second-effort play. In my opinion, Matthews has worked his way to the fringe of the third round, and I'll be surprised if he makes it out of the fourth.
Down: Ohio State OLB Ross Homan -- There's a lot to like about Homan's instincts, range and solid tackling skills. He is a very natural player. However, his lack of size and strength to hold up at the point of attack is a major concern. Homan is too often engulfed by bigger offensive linemen and tends to absorb blows rather than delivering them when taking on isolation blocks. He's just over 6 feet and only 229 pounds, so the team that drafts him will have to protect him and let him run to the ball. However, I'm not sure he has the necessary speed. Homan has gone from a Day 2 pick in the preseason to a likely fifth-round pick at this point.
Scouts Inc. Observations
Muench -- Just two fullbacks heard their names called during last year's draft. The Jets took John Conner in the fifth and Seattle took Jameson Konz in the seventh. This year we've given six draftable grades. That doesn't mean that all six will get drafted, but it's indication that this is a much stronger fullback class, and the top three are all capable of contributing this year. Tulsa's Charles Clay is the No. 1 fullback on our board, and his versatility is his greatest strength. Clay is a reliable receiver, he has better vision as a runner than most fullbacks and he has made strides as a blocker. He quietly had a strong week at the Senior Bowl and could come off the board early in the fourth. Stanford's Owen Marecic also projects as a fourth-round pick. He is a physical lead blocker and he runs hard between the tackles. Georgia's Shaun Chapas is a tough lead blocker who uncoils on linebackers and flashes a violent punch. Though he didn't play a big role in Georgia's passing game, he has shown enough to be optimistic about his ability to develop into a reliable receiver. He projects as a late-fifth- or early-sixth-round pick.
Weidl -- It looks, at this point, like there will not be a new NFL collective bargaining agreement before the 2011 draft, but if the miraculous happens and the owners and players make a deal in the next few weeks there is a good chance we'll see a rookie wage scale go into effect. Should that happen, I'll be interested to see if more teams jockey for position and try to move into the top 10 to fill needs. They would not have to mortgage the farm to assure themselves of getting a particular player and could get a good value at the end of that player's rookie deal if he turns into an elite player. A team like the Patriots with their two first-round picks would be a possibility. New England needs to upgrade its pass rush and could package one of its two first-rounders to get an elite edge-rusher. This is all speculation until the two sides finally come to an agreement, but it is something to think about as the labor drama unfolds.
Scouts Inc.
Mocking the quarterbacks
I unveiled my third mock draft for 2011 earlier this week. The top 10 picks are particularly intriguing at this point because several teams have high-priority needs at the same positions -- and supply does not meet demand in most cases.
Before we project forward, let's take a quick look back at the number of players from all positions who have been selected in the top 10 of the last 10 drafts:
Quarterback: 15
Offensive tackle: 15
Wide receiver: 14
Defensive tackle: 14
Defensive end: 11
Cornerback: 8
Running back: 8
Linebacker: 7
Safety: 6
Tight end: 2
Teams that have been most successful drafting in the top 10 have paid close attention to positional value. There are four impact positions worthy a the high pick: quarterback, offensive tackle, pass-rusher (DE/OLB/DT) and cornerback, in that order.
Starting at the top of that list of four, it should surprise no one that demand exceeds supply in terms of potential top-10 quarterbacks in 2011. Andrew Luck returned to school, while Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett have seen their stock plummet since the beginning of the 2010 season, so it's slim pickings for top-10 teams looking for help under center.
An argument could be made that the following seven teams picking in the top 10 this year have at least some interest in a quarterback:
No. 1 Carolina
No. 3 Buffalo
No. 4 Cincinnati
No. 5 Arizona
No. 6 Cleveland
No. 7 San Francisco
No. 8 Tennessee
However, at this point, we at Scouts Inc. rate only Missouri's Blaine Gabbert and Auburn's Cam Newton as likely top-10 picks. Gabbert went to Arizona and Newton to Washington in my latest mock, and while both will need time to transition to pro-style offenses they certainly have plenty of upside based on their physical tools, and Newton's recent workout showing in front of the media has helped his case.
Help available up front?
The quarterback shortage detailed above and that there is no offensive tackle currently in the top 10 and that WR A.J. Green is in the top 10 based on his incredible physical tools mean there are seven other top-10 picks to fill from two remaining impact positions.
Two of the pass-rush positions are holding up their end of the bargain with DEs Da'Quan Bowers and J.J Watt and OLB Von Miller all in the top 10, but there is likely to be a little more trepidation when teams look at the top defensive tackles on the board.
Nick Fairley and Marcell Dareus are supremely talented and have no major character concerns, but Fairley had one productive year at the FCS level and Dareus dealt with a two-game suspension and some nagging injuries in 2010, and history says taking a defensive tackle early is a risky bet.
Between 1994 (when the Bengals took Dan Wilkinson with the top overall pick) and 2007 (the most recent draft class we have fully evaluated), eight defensive tackles were taken in the top six, and only two of them can be considered hits.
Wilkinson and Richard Seymour justified high picks but Darrell Russell, Gerard Warren, Dewayne Robertson, Johnathan Sullivan, Ryan Sims and Corey Simon ultimately failed to live up to expectations.
One of the biggest concerns, and perhaps one of the reasons highly rated defensive tackles struggle in the NFL, is that there are very few good athletes at 300-plus pounds in college and players such as Fairley and Dareus often dominate based solely on natural ability.
That's often not the case in the NFL, where having to bring a lunch pail for 40 or 50 snaps per game can be a shock to the system. Those interior linemen they face at the next level were probably tackles in college and have spent plenty of time working on technique and a lot of other little things since becoming pros. It takes a special player to handle that step up in competition.
Right or wrong, all of that will factor in when scouts and front-office personnel evaluate this year's top tackles. I still have Fairley and Dareus among my top six picks, but they are far from sure things.
Better luck at CB?
History is not quite as frightening at cornerback, which has had 14 players drafted in the top 10 between 1994-2007.
Five players from that group -- Terence Newman, Quentin Jammer Champ Bailey, Chris McAlister and Charles Woodson -- have been good to elite players.
Three others -- Dunta Robinson, Shawn Springs and Duane Starks -- were solid but drafted a bit high.
The remaining six -- Adam Jones, Carlos Rogers, DeAngelo Hall, Bryant Westbrook, Tommy Knight and Antonio Langham -- were disappointing for various reasons, including character, injuries and poor fits with teams.
Teams hitting on eight of 14 corners over that span should make teams a little more comfortable with our top three corners for 2011.
Patrick Peterson is an elite prospect with the ability to contribute in the return game, Prince Amukamara has great instincts and tools and Jimmy Smith has very good size, and none of the three come with durability or character concerns.
All that helped them round out my top 10 and should alleviate some of the uneasiness teams might feel when deciding which direction to go with their picks.
Steve Muench's Stock Report
Up: Georgia ILB Akeem Dent -- Dent's instincts are just adequate and he has limitations in coverage but he is a downhill run-stopper who's not afraid to meet lead blockers in the hole. His toughness and ability to close on the ball in run pursuit stood out during practice leading up to the East-West Shrine Game, and Dent jumped out again during my evaluation of Georgia Tech OT Nick Claytor earlier this week. Dent stepped up and put Claytor on his back on a play late in the second quarter of that game, showing the kind of explosive power that should make him a late-fourth- or early-fifth-round pick.
Down: Ohio State DE/DT Cameron Heyward -- Heyward underwent left elbow surgery in January that kept him out of the Senior Bowl and could limit or prevent him from participating in drills at the NFL combine. Meanwhile, two defensive ends Heyward is in direct competition with have seen their stock rise since the season ended. Like Heyward, California's Cameron Jordan and Temple's Muhammad Wilkerson can line up as a 3-technique in a base 3-4 front. Jordan shined at the Senior Bowl, showing violent hands and a non-stop motor in the process, while Wilkerson's film indicates he is stronger than Heyward at the point of attack.
Kevin Weidl's Stock Report
Up: Oregon OLB Casey Matthews -- He lacks elite size and range and struggles at times to get off blocks, but Matthews has tremendous toughness and instincts. He reads his keys well and was consistently the first defender reacting to the ball on film. He's also a fundamentally sound tackler with good awareness and range in underneath zone coverage; he times pressures well and makes a lot of second-effort play. In my opinion, Matthews has worked his way to the fringe of the third round, and I'll be surprised if he makes it out of the fourth.
Down: Ohio State OLB Ross Homan -- There's a lot to like about Homan's instincts, range and solid tackling skills. He is a very natural player. However, his lack of size and strength to hold up at the point of attack is a major concern. Homan is too often engulfed by bigger offensive linemen and tends to absorb blows rather than delivering them when taking on isolation blocks. He's just over 6 feet and only 229 pounds, so the team that drafts him will have to protect him and let him run to the ball. However, I'm not sure he has the necessary speed. Homan has gone from a Day 2 pick in the preseason to a likely fifth-round pick at this point.
Scouts Inc. Observations
Muench -- Just two fullbacks heard their names called during last year's draft. The Jets took John Conner in the fifth and Seattle took Jameson Konz in the seventh. This year we've given six draftable grades. That doesn't mean that all six will get drafted, but it's indication that this is a much stronger fullback class, and the top three are all capable of contributing this year. Tulsa's Charles Clay is the No. 1 fullback on our board, and his versatility is his greatest strength. Clay is a reliable receiver, he has better vision as a runner than most fullbacks and he has made strides as a blocker. He quietly had a strong week at the Senior Bowl and could come off the board early in the fourth. Stanford's Owen Marecic also projects as a fourth-round pick. He is a physical lead blocker and he runs hard between the tackles. Georgia's Shaun Chapas is a tough lead blocker who uncoils on linebackers and flashes a violent punch. Though he didn't play a big role in Georgia's passing game, he has shown enough to be optimistic about his ability to develop into a reliable receiver. He projects as a late-fifth- or early-sixth-round pick.
Weidl -- It looks, at this point, like there will not be a new NFL collective bargaining agreement before the 2011 draft, but if the miraculous happens and the owners and players make a deal in the next few weeks there is a good chance we'll see a rookie wage scale go into effect. Should that happen, I'll be interested to see if more teams jockey for position and try to move into the top 10 to fill needs. They would not have to mortgage the farm to assure themselves of getting a particular player and could get a good value at the end of that player's rookie deal if he turns into an elite player. A team like the Patriots with their two first-round picks would be a possibility. New England needs to upgrade its pass rush and could package one of its two first-rounders to get an elite edge-rusher. This is all speculation until the two sides finally come to an agreement, but it is something to think about as the labor drama unfolds.