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By Russ Lande
For Sporting News
As juniors and third-year sophomores are declaring for the 2011 NFL draft this week, ahead of Saturday's deadline, some certainly should pull their names out of the draft before it's too late. Here is a look at five underclassmen who are sure to be drafted later than they think:
1. John Clay, RB, Wisconsin
We were shocked when Clay entered the draft, but after breaking down his film it became apparent that he might not be good enough to start on the '11 Wisconsin team. So, he's taking his shot at the NFL instead of perhaps becoming a college backup. Clay is a first- or second-down runner who is a liability as a receiver or pass blocker. He has value as an inside power runner in a complementary role. He lacks the speed, quickness and burst to be an NFL feature back.
Clay (6-1, 258) is most effective as a downhill runner who can make one cut and build speed through the hole. He shakes off defenders who go high but is tackled easily when defenders hit him below the waist. At times he runs with good patience and other times he seemingly runs with his eyes closed, simply slamming into the backs of blockers. He lacks elusiveness in the open field and has a history of fumbling. Basically, he is a one-dimensional prospect with limited upside and might have to make an NFL roster as a special teams coverage player. He should stay in school and get his degree because he might not last long in the NFL.
Projection: Fifth-round pick.
2. Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
Mallett (6-6, 238) is an enticing prospect because of his size and arm strength, and he has shown the ability to be an accurate passer when using good technique and footwork. However, Mallett makes way too many mental mistakes when reading defenses and thus throws way too many interceptions.
Mallett is not a premier prospect and must improve a ton to become a quality NFL starter. Another season in college would have given him the chance to improve at reading defenses and understanding passing schemes so he could make better decisions in clutch situations. By leaving school early, he is risking his entire pro career. As in, if he goes to a team without a great QB coach and patient owner, he could well wash out of the NFL in a hurry.
Projection: Second- or third-round pick.
3. Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
Ayers has been hyped as an elite player since he arrived at UCLA but has shown only flashes of being such an NFL prospect. Ayers (6-3, 258) is a lanky straight-line player who struggles to changes directions in coverage. He does have elite speed to chase down ballcarriers in pursuit and flashes an explosive closing burst to deliver violent hits.
He was an inconsistent player in college, and he must improve his all-around game to even become an NFL starter. He must have a great performance at the NFL Scouting Combine to overcome concerns about his lack of athleticism and be a high pick.
Projection: Third- or fourth-round pick.
4. Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
Baldwin (6-4 3/4, 230) has rare size and arm length but is a long-strider who lacks elite speed and quickness to separate from man-to-man coverage. He tracks passes well, showing the ability to catch balls away from his body. He has good body control and balance. He has a tall, lazy stance and builds up speed slowly. He lacks any instant burst, explosiveness or acceleration in his movements.
He gets sloppy with his routes at times and seems unwilling to catch passes over the middle. He does not appear to be willing to do the little things necessary to be great. He does not come back to the ball against zone coverage or go high to catch off-target throws. He has the ability to be a dominant run blocker but rarely works hard.
Receivers without good speed usually fall on draft day. Throw in the questions about his competitiveness and toughness, and he could really slide. Plus, he has no special teams value as a return man or cover guy.
Projection: Third-round pick.
5. Jurrell Casey, DT, USC
Casey is quick and athletic, and he was productive in college. However, he looks short and thick on film. He is listed at 6-2 and 282 but might not break 6-foot once officially measured at the Combine. His lack of height could help him gain leverage, but the problem is he plays upright too often and is too easily pushed around.
We like his quick hands and ability to defeat one-on-one pass blocks in the open field, but NFL defensive tackles rarely have much space to utilize athleticism advantages. Casey reminds us somewhat of Eagles defensive tackle Mike Patterson when he was at USC, only not as big or as strong.
Projection: Third- or fourth-round pick.
For Sporting News
As juniors and third-year sophomores are declaring for the 2011 NFL draft this week, ahead of Saturday's deadline, some certainly should pull their names out of the draft before it's too late. Here is a look at five underclassmen who are sure to be drafted later than they think:
1. John Clay, RB, Wisconsin
We were shocked when Clay entered the draft, but after breaking down his film it became apparent that he might not be good enough to start on the '11 Wisconsin team. So, he's taking his shot at the NFL instead of perhaps becoming a college backup. Clay is a first- or second-down runner who is a liability as a receiver or pass blocker. He has value as an inside power runner in a complementary role. He lacks the speed, quickness and burst to be an NFL feature back.
Clay (6-1, 258) is most effective as a downhill runner who can make one cut and build speed through the hole. He shakes off defenders who go high but is tackled easily when defenders hit him below the waist. At times he runs with good patience and other times he seemingly runs with his eyes closed, simply slamming into the backs of blockers. He lacks elusiveness in the open field and has a history of fumbling. Basically, he is a one-dimensional prospect with limited upside and might have to make an NFL roster as a special teams coverage player. He should stay in school and get his degree because he might not last long in the NFL.
Projection: Fifth-round pick.
2. Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
Mallett (6-6, 238) is an enticing prospect because of his size and arm strength, and he has shown the ability to be an accurate passer when using good technique and footwork. However, Mallett makes way too many mental mistakes when reading defenses and thus throws way too many interceptions.
Mallett is not a premier prospect and must improve a ton to become a quality NFL starter. Another season in college would have given him the chance to improve at reading defenses and understanding passing schemes so he could make better decisions in clutch situations. By leaving school early, he is risking his entire pro career. As in, if he goes to a team without a great QB coach and patient owner, he could well wash out of the NFL in a hurry.
Projection: Second- or third-round pick.
3. Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
Ayers has been hyped as an elite player since he arrived at UCLA but has shown only flashes of being such an NFL prospect. Ayers (6-3, 258) is a lanky straight-line player who struggles to changes directions in coverage. He does have elite speed to chase down ballcarriers in pursuit and flashes an explosive closing burst to deliver violent hits.
He was an inconsistent player in college, and he must improve his all-around game to even become an NFL starter. He must have a great performance at the NFL Scouting Combine to overcome concerns about his lack of athleticism and be a high pick.
Projection: Third- or fourth-round pick.
4. Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
Baldwin (6-4 3/4, 230) has rare size and arm length but is a long-strider who lacks elite speed and quickness to separate from man-to-man coverage. He tracks passes well, showing the ability to catch balls away from his body. He has good body control and balance. He has a tall, lazy stance and builds up speed slowly. He lacks any instant burst, explosiveness or acceleration in his movements.
He gets sloppy with his routes at times and seems unwilling to catch passes over the middle. He does not appear to be willing to do the little things necessary to be great. He does not come back to the ball against zone coverage or go high to catch off-target throws. He has the ability to be a dominant run blocker but rarely works hard.
Receivers without good speed usually fall on draft day. Throw in the questions about his competitiveness and toughness, and he could really slide. Plus, he has no special teams value as a return man or cover guy.
Projection: Third-round pick.
5. Jurrell Casey, DT, USC
Casey is quick and athletic, and he was productive in college. However, he looks short and thick on film. He is listed at 6-2 and 282 but might not break 6-foot once officially measured at the Combine. His lack of height could help him gain leverage, but the problem is he plays upright too often and is too easily pushed around.
We like his quick hands and ability to defeat one-on-one pass blocks in the open field, but NFL defensive tackles rarely have much space to utilize athleticism advantages. Casey reminds us somewhat of Eagles defensive tackle Mike Patterson when he was at USC, only not as big or as strong.
Projection: Third- or fourth-round pick.