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How Andrew Luck shifted the draft
Five ways in which the shape of the draft has changed because of Luck's decision
By Mel Kiper
ESPN Insider
You have chosen ... wisely.
On my newly updated Big Board, I discussed why Andrew Luck's decision to stick around Palo Alto for another season hardly qualifies as risky. He has a bright NFL future waiting for him the moment he's ready to leave Stanford. But as it pertains to the rest of the football universe? Well, there will be serious ripples from this decision, starting in Carolina, where it was already clear that the team had every intention of selecting Luck with the No. 1 pick.
But a decision like this affects a lot of people. While it's still early, here are five immediate thoughts that come to mind:
1. The Panthers can shop
The Carolina Panthers just had the easiest first night of the draft completely hijacked. They could have had their pick sitting on the commissioner's podium before the lights were on at Radio City. Instead, they now at least should entertain moving the pick to somebody who really covets a player such as Da'Quan Bowers, an impact defensive end now sitting atop the Big Board, or any other guy a team is convinced fits their system perfectly. That's because in the absence of a total lock at the No. 1 pick, the Panthers can look to move down and pile up draft picks. When you're coming off a two-win season, there's a real possibility the new coach will want to get as many guys he can whom he believes fit his system. Carolina loses out on Luck, but they definitely gained some flexibility in terms of piling up picks.
2. The can also target a QB in another manner
There's no question Jimmy Clausen looked like a rookie in 2010, but minus Luck, no quarterback Carolina can land in the draft is a better bet to succeed in 2011 than Clausen, based on current grades. So if the Panthers want to upgrade, or at least bring in some good competition at QB, moving the No. 1 pick could certainly net them some insurance at QB. I'm not saying they would move the pick straight-up for a QB -- Donovan McNabb went for far less, as one recent example -- but if they get two or three extra picks over the next couple years, they'd have the ability to make a move. We should remember that they do have a need at D-tackle, and Auburn's Nick Fairley would be a good fit.
3. The quarterback class is in disarray
Luck held up his end of the bargain. Eight months ago anybody evaluating the draft class, myself included, believed both Luck and Washington's Jake Locker would be vying to be the first QB picked. But while Luck's stock remained high, Locker had a borderline disastrous season that has a lot of personnel people wondering if he's still a first-round option. Now, with what I can see as at least a handful of the top-15 picks with very unsettled QB situations, you have teams that will have to take an extremely close look at this class. But from that class, somebody had a really good week.
4. The microscope shifts
And it shifts mostly toward Blaine Gabbert, the Missouri QB whose stock has been improving and timing is even better. I had Gabbert solidly among my top junior QBs all year, but his stock has been rising in recent weeks both because of his own play and because of the erratic performances of other QBs in this class. I love the potential of Cam Newton, and have him at No. 13 on my Big Board, but there are personnel folks who still need to be convinced. Similarly, Ryan Mallett has an NFL-ready arm but other skills that need to be refined. Locker must also bounce back in the eyes of scouts. I don't like to overhype guys who I think are on the fence about declaring for reasons I've stated many times but when Gabbert declared, I moved him up the Board. Combined with Luck's departure, he's currently the top-rated QB in the draft. That, of course, comes with a catch: Nobody will be under more scrutiny in the coming weeks.
5. Shifts await
The bottom line is this: With the absence of a runaway No. 1 pick, you could see some serious shifts within the top-10 prospects in particular, because the race to be the No. 1 pick feels a little more open as of right now. Suddenly you have to wonder whether a guy such as Bowers, or perhaps LSU's Patrick Peterson -- both players with exceptional athletic ability for their positions -- are willing to do all the combine drills, something the cream of the draft crop has often passed on, their good standing assured. If Luck's departure has done anything, it's made the jockeying for the top position a concept that can once again be entertained.
Again, these are just some initial thoughts that come to mind. Draft season is just getting started.
Five ways in which the shape of the draft has changed because of Luck's decision
By Mel Kiper
ESPN Insider
You have chosen ... wisely.
On my newly updated Big Board, I discussed why Andrew Luck's decision to stick around Palo Alto for another season hardly qualifies as risky. He has a bright NFL future waiting for him the moment he's ready to leave Stanford. But as it pertains to the rest of the football universe? Well, there will be serious ripples from this decision, starting in Carolina, where it was already clear that the team had every intention of selecting Luck with the No. 1 pick.
But a decision like this affects a lot of people. While it's still early, here are five immediate thoughts that come to mind:
1. The Panthers can shop
The Carolina Panthers just had the easiest first night of the draft completely hijacked. They could have had their pick sitting on the commissioner's podium before the lights were on at Radio City. Instead, they now at least should entertain moving the pick to somebody who really covets a player such as Da'Quan Bowers, an impact defensive end now sitting atop the Big Board, or any other guy a team is convinced fits their system perfectly. That's because in the absence of a total lock at the No. 1 pick, the Panthers can look to move down and pile up draft picks. When you're coming off a two-win season, there's a real possibility the new coach will want to get as many guys he can whom he believes fit his system. Carolina loses out on Luck, but they definitely gained some flexibility in terms of piling up picks.
2. The can also target a QB in another manner
There's no question Jimmy Clausen looked like a rookie in 2010, but minus Luck, no quarterback Carolina can land in the draft is a better bet to succeed in 2011 than Clausen, based on current grades. So if the Panthers want to upgrade, or at least bring in some good competition at QB, moving the No. 1 pick could certainly net them some insurance at QB. I'm not saying they would move the pick straight-up for a QB -- Donovan McNabb went for far less, as one recent example -- but if they get two or three extra picks over the next couple years, they'd have the ability to make a move. We should remember that they do have a need at D-tackle, and Auburn's Nick Fairley would be a good fit.
3. The quarterback class is in disarray
Luck held up his end of the bargain. Eight months ago anybody evaluating the draft class, myself included, believed both Luck and Washington's Jake Locker would be vying to be the first QB picked. But while Luck's stock remained high, Locker had a borderline disastrous season that has a lot of personnel people wondering if he's still a first-round option. Now, with what I can see as at least a handful of the top-15 picks with very unsettled QB situations, you have teams that will have to take an extremely close look at this class. But from that class, somebody had a really good week.
4. The microscope shifts
And it shifts mostly toward Blaine Gabbert, the Missouri QB whose stock has been improving and timing is even better. I had Gabbert solidly among my top junior QBs all year, but his stock has been rising in recent weeks both because of his own play and because of the erratic performances of other QBs in this class. I love the potential of Cam Newton, and have him at No. 13 on my Big Board, but there are personnel folks who still need to be convinced. Similarly, Ryan Mallett has an NFL-ready arm but other skills that need to be refined. Locker must also bounce back in the eyes of scouts. I don't like to overhype guys who I think are on the fence about declaring for reasons I've stated many times but when Gabbert declared, I moved him up the Board. Combined with Luck's departure, he's currently the top-rated QB in the draft. That, of course, comes with a catch: Nobody will be under more scrutiny in the coming weeks.
5. Shifts await
The bottom line is this: With the absence of a runaway No. 1 pick, you could see some serious shifts within the top-10 prospects in particular, because the race to be the No. 1 pick feels a little more open as of right now. Suddenly you have to wonder whether a guy such as Bowers, or perhaps LSU's Patrick Peterson -- both players with exceptional athletic ability for their positions -- are willing to do all the combine drills, something the cream of the draft crop has often passed on, their good standing assured. If Luck's departure has done anything, it's made the jockeying for the top position a concept that can once again be entertained.
Again, these are just some initial thoughts that come to mind. Draft season is just getting started.