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The Big Board loses Luck
A big draft decision has changed the way the Big Board will look from here on out
By Mel Kiper
ESPN.com
Andrew Luck will be a great NFL quarterback. Everything about the way he plays and reads the game says as much. But he doesn't have to start the process at the NFL level this year, a fact reinforced even more by the way onetime potential No. 1 pick Sam Bradford didn't after his 2008 season. The reinforcement, of course, isn't just in that Bradford eventually became a No. 1 pick but also by the way in did it. Bradford came back to college, surprising many of us who would have a hard time telling anybody to pass on guaranteed lifetime of financial security, and he suffered an injury to his throwing shoulder almost immediately into the 2009 season. He was largely absent from Oklahoma's 2009 campaign.
But scouts believed in Bradford's talent, and the rest is recent history. I think Luck's status in the eyes of scouts far surpasses even Bradford's. And for someone as mature and self-aware as Luck, the decision to return to Stanford for what will be just his junior year as a former redshirt is one it's hard to fathom he'll regret. He'll be fine, his career will be good and the draft will still go on without him. So will the Big Board. For what it looks like now, see below. As always, juniors and draft-eligible sophomores are noted with an asterisk.
1) Da'Quan Bowers *, Clemson DE 6-4 277
Analysis: A possible No. 1 pick with Luck opting to stay in school, Bowers has followed through on his talent. A former top-rated overall recruit. Last week: No. 2
2) Nick Fairley *, Auburn DT 6-5 310
Analysis: Fairley simply dominated and has one more showcase game for scouts. He often was a force even while not 100 percent. A top-10 lock currently. Last week: No. 3
3) A.J. Green *, Georgia WR 6-4 207
Analysis: Not sure people realize what kind of route-runner he's become. Green has worked hard to become a complete WR. Last week: No. 4
4) Patrick Peterson *, LSU CB 6-1 211
Analysis: An extraordinary athlete, Peterson doesn't just have safety size -- he'd measure up to a lot of RBs. Great total package -- cornerback and return game. Last week: No. 5
5) Prince Amukamara, Nebraska CB 6-1 202
Analysis: Top marks for instincts, ball awareness and ball skills. It's as if he's running the route sometimes. Immediate starter. Last week: No. 6
6) Marcell Dareus *, Alabama DE 6-3 306
Analysis: A solid penetrator; pass-rush skills trump run-stopping performance thus far. Best suited at 4-3 DT, needs to show consistent effort to scouts. Last week: No. 7
7) Robert Quinn *, North Carolina DE 6-4 267
Analysis: Great natural pass-rusher, solid athlete, serious motor. Still raw with time off, but scouts love his natural ability. Last week: No. 8
8) Blaine Gabbert *, Missouri QB 6-5 232
Analysis: Strong arm, good mobility, prototype in terms of physical skills. Ranked all year in my top QBs. Jumps with draft declaration, improved stock. Last week: NR
9) Von Miller, Texas A&M LB 6-3 243
Analysis: Miller proved that he's more than a sack artist this season. He showed coverage skills to go along with known pass-rush production. Edge burner. Last week: No. 9
10) Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue DE 6-4 259
Analysis: Led nation with 26 tackles for loss and became impossible to block, even against double-teams. Ideal as a 3-4 OLB but possible at DE in a 3-4. Last week: No. 14
11) Akeem Ayers *, UCLA OLB 6-4 251
Analysis: Exceptional athleticism makes him versatile. Ideal every-down 3-4 OLB who can rush the passer and cover. Top coverage skills of any OLB so far. Last week: No. 16
12) Cam Newton *, Auburn QB 6-6 250
Analysis: He has size and athleticism, but also underrated accuracy. Extends plays; good patience. Lacks experience and any time in pro-style scheme. Last week: No. 12
13) Julio Jones *, Alabama WR 6-4 211
Analysis: When healthy, Jones was impossible to stop; when not, he was still good in 2010. Overcame drop issues, improved route-running. Last week: No. 13
14) Justin Blackmon *, Oklahoma State WR 6-1 208
Analysis: Underrated size, good instincts, size and speed combo with ability to set up defensive backs. Highly productive, and not just a possession guy. Last week: No. 15
15) Adrian Clayborn, Iowa DE 6-3 282
Analysis: Good size, capable of lining up as 3-4 DE. Good motor; batters offensive linemen. Needs to refine rush skills. Last week: No. 19
16) Ryan Mallett *, Arkansas QB 6-7 238
Analysis: Mallett became far more than a big arm this season, but footwork and checkdown skills concern. Still a volatile stock. Last week: No. 11
17) Drake Nevis, LSU DT 6-1 289
Analysis: Lacks top-end size, but he's an explosive, up-the-field tackle with good pad level and leverage. Ideal three-technique, he plays with passion. Last week: No. 10
18) Nate Solder, Colorado OT 6-9 313
Analysis: A physical specimen, has great length, ability to add bulk to chiseled frame. Will shine in workout phase, and draft is short on elite offensive tackles. Last week: No. 17
19) Anthony Castonzo, Boston College OT 6-7 306
Analysis: Smart, reliable with solid footwork, but could add lower-body strength and overall bulk to improve leverage. Consistent worker; smart player. Last week: No. 18
20) Cameron Heyward, Ohio State DE 6-5 291
Analysis: On the Big Board most of the season, back on with dominating Sugar Bowl performance. Versatile, but ideal size to work as 3-4 DE. Last week: NR
21) Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin OT 6-7 327
Analysis: Had a fantastic fall, battling a number of likely high draft picks to standstills. Beaten by a speed rush in the past, his footwork improved greatly. Last week: No. 21
22) Janoris Jenkins *, Florida CB 5-11 185
Analysis: New to the board last week -- he's had an up-and-down season, but the physical skills are there; he also comes from a good system. Last week: No. 24
23) Mark Ingram *, Alabama RB 5-10 216
Analysis: Production dipped from last season, but Ingram was still explosive and physical after being dinged early. Solid finisher; top-end speed is in question. Last week: No. 22
24) Jake Locker, Washington QB 6-3 228
Analysis: Off-the-charts skill set and intangibles; solid character. Accuracy and work against top opposition suffered. Wild card. Last week: No. 23
25) Mike Pouncey. Florida C/G 6-4 310
Analysis: Bloodlines are there, as is a comparable skill set to brother Maurkice. Versatile interior blocker, ready to start. Last week: NR
A big draft decision has changed the way the Big Board will look from here on out
By Mel Kiper
ESPN.com
Andrew Luck will be a great NFL quarterback. Everything about the way he plays and reads the game says as much. But he doesn't have to start the process at the NFL level this year, a fact reinforced even more by the way onetime potential No. 1 pick Sam Bradford didn't after his 2008 season. The reinforcement, of course, isn't just in that Bradford eventually became a No. 1 pick but also by the way in did it. Bradford came back to college, surprising many of us who would have a hard time telling anybody to pass on guaranteed lifetime of financial security, and he suffered an injury to his throwing shoulder almost immediately into the 2009 season. He was largely absent from Oklahoma's 2009 campaign.
But scouts believed in Bradford's talent, and the rest is recent history. I think Luck's status in the eyes of scouts far surpasses even Bradford's. And for someone as mature and self-aware as Luck, the decision to return to Stanford for what will be just his junior year as a former redshirt is one it's hard to fathom he'll regret. He'll be fine, his career will be good and the draft will still go on without him. So will the Big Board. For what it looks like now, see below. As always, juniors and draft-eligible sophomores are noted with an asterisk.
1) Da'Quan Bowers *, Clemson DE 6-4 277
Analysis: A possible No. 1 pick with Luck opting to stay in school, Bowers has followed through on his talent. A former top-rated overall recruit. Last week: No. 2
2) Nick Fairley *, Auburn DT 6-5 310
Analysis: Fairley simply dominated and has one more showcase game for scouts. He often was a force even while not 100 percent. A top-10 lock currently. Last week: No. 3
3) A.J. Green *, Georgia WR 6-4 207
Analysis: Not sure people realize what kind of route-runner he's become. Green has worked hard to become a complete WR. Last week: No. 4
4) Patrick Peterson *, LSU CB 6-1 211
Analysis: An extraordinary athlete, Peterson doesn't just have safety size -- he'd measure up to a lot of RBs. Great total package -- cornerback and return game. Last week: No. 5
5) Prince Amukamara, Nebraska CB 6-1 202
Analysis: Top marks for instincts, ball awareness and ball skills. It's as if he's running the route sometimes. Immediate starter. Last week: No. 6
6) Marcell Dareus *, Alabama DE 6-3 306
Analysis: A solid penetrator; pass-rush skills trump run-stopping performance thus far. Best suited at 4-3 DT, needs to show consistent effort to scouts. Last week: No. 7
7) Robert Quinn *, North Carolina DE 6-4 267
Analysis: Great natural pass-rusher, solid athlete, serious motor. Still raw with time off, but scouts love his natural ability. Last week: No. 8
8) Blaine Gabbert *, Missouri QB 6-5 232
Analysis: Strong arm, good mobility, prototype in terms of physical skills. Ranked all year in my top QBs. Jumps with draft declaration, improved stock. Last week: NR
9) Von Miller, Texas A&M LB 6-3 243
Analysis: Miller proved that he's more than a sack artist this season. He showed coverage skills to go along with known pass-rush production. Edge burner. Last week: No. 9
10) Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue DE 6-4 259
Analysis: Led nation with 26 tackles for loss and became impossible to block, even against double-teams. Ideal as a 3-4 OLB but possible at DE in a 3-4. Last week: No. 14
11) Akeem Ayers *, UCLA OLB 6-4 251
Analysis: Exceptional athleticism makes him versatile. Ideal every-down 3-4 OLB who can rush the passer and cover. Top coverage skills of any OLB so far. Last week: No. 16
12) Cam Newton *, Auburn QB 6-6 250
Analysis: He has size and athleticism, but also underrated accuracy. Extends plays; good patience. Lacks experience and any time in pro-style scheme. Last week: No. 12
13) Julio Jones *, Alabama WR 6-4 211
Analysis: When healthy, Jones was impossible to stop; when not, he was still good in 2010. Overcame drop issues, improved route-running. Last week: No. 13
14) Justin Blackmon *, Oklahoma State WR 6-1 208
Analysis: Underrated size, good instincts, size and speed combo with ability to set up defensive backs. Highly productive, and not just a possession guy. Last week: No. 15
15) Adrian Clayborn, Iowa DE 6-3 282
Analysis: Good size, capable of lining up as 3-4 DE. Good motor; batters offensive linemen. Needs to refine rush skills. Last week: No. 19
16) Ryan Mallett *, Arkansas QB 6-7 238
Analysis: Mallett became far more than a big arm this season, but footwork and checkdown skills concern. Still a volatile stock. Last week: No. 11
17) Drake Nevis, LSU DT 6-1 289
Analysis: Lacks top-end size, but he's an explosive, up-the-field tackle with good pad level and leverage. Ideal three-technique, he plays with passion. Last week: No. 10
18) Nate Solder, Colorado OT 6-9 313
Analysis: A physical specimen, has great length, ability to add bulk to chiseled frame. Will shine in workout phase, and draft is short on elite offensive tackles. Last week: No. 17
19) Anthony Castonzo, Boston College OT 6-7 306
Analysis: Smart, reliable with solid footwork, but could add lower-body strength and overall bulk to improve leverage. Consistent worker; smart player. Last week: No. 18
20) Cameron Heyward, Ohio State DE 6-5 291
Analysis: On the Big Board most of the season, back on with dominating Sugar Bowl performance. Versatile, but ideal size to work as 3-4 DE. Last week: NR
21) Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin OT 6-7 327
Analysis: Had a fantastic fall, battling a number of likely high draft picks to standstills. Beaten by a speed rush in the past, his footwork improved greatly. Last week: No. 21
22) Janoris Jenkins *, Florida CB 5-11 185
Analysis: New to the board last week -- he's had an up-and-down season, but the physical skills are there; he also comes from a good system. Last week: No. 24
23) Mark Ingram *, Alabama RB 5-10 216
Analysis: Production dipped from last season, but Ingram was still explosive and physical after being dinged early. Solid finisher; top-end speed is in question. Last week: No. 22
24) Jake Locker, Washington QB 6-3 228
Analysis: Off-the-charts skill set and intangibles; solid character. Accuracy and work against top opposition suffered. Wild card. Last week: No. 23
25) Mike Pouncey. Florida C/G 6-4 310
Analysis: Bloodlines are there, as is a comparable skill set to brother Maurkice. Versatile interior blocker, ready to start. Last week: NR
