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Luck's decision impacts entire top 10
Todd McShay
Scouts Inc.
It's hard to look at QB Andrew Luck's decision to return to Stanford for his redshirt junior year and believe it's about anything other than what he says: the chance to earn his degree and experience another year of college life.
Yes, it's a business decision to some degree. Luck's father, Oliver, is a former NFL quarterback and the current athletic director at West Virginia, and the family is plugged-in enough to know that no 2011 rookies will get paid until a new NFL collective bargaining agreement is in place and any new agreement will likely contain a rookie wage scale.
That means no matter what, Luck would not have topped the $50 million guaranteed that Sam Bradford got as the No. 1 overall pick last year. And in the event the players are locked out by their owners, Luck will be playing the college season instead of working out and waiting for the business of the NFL to be taken care of.
Even if he wasn't going to surpass Bradford's contract Luck left a lot of money on the table, but he seems to genuinely enjoy the college experience and everything it entails, and he seems truly committed to earning a diploma. Kudos to him.
The football fallout
So what does Luck's decision mean from a football standpoint? First and foremost, it means the Carolina Panthers organization is in a tough spot and current Panthers QB Jimmy Clausen is one of the happiest guys in the league.
All the buzz out of Carolina was that the Panthers were going to take Luck at No. 1 overall despite choosing Clausen in the second round last year, and rightly so given Luck's NFL-ready skill set. But with Luck no longer in the mix Clausen has gone from a guy looking to wait out his rookie contract and get out of town to the returning starter despite an underwhelming rookie campaign.
So who do the Panthers take with the top pick? As much as we like Missouri junior QB Blaine Gabbert and his enormous physical tools, he's no Luck. Gabbert has the arm and intangibles to be a starter in the NFL for a long time but he played in a spread system in college and will need time to transition to a pro-style offense.
Clemson junior DE Da'Quan Bowers has announced his intention to enter the draft, and as an impact pass rusher he would have to be an option for Carolina. It's uncertain from there, though, because the remaining players in the top five overall include a pair of defensive tackles -- neither of whom is on the same level as Ndamukong Suh, the second pick in 2010 -- and a cornerback and wide receiver who might not have the positional value to be No. 1 overall. There's no franchise left tackle in this year's class, either.
As for the remaining quarterbacks on the board, Luck's move certainly helps them. Teams always seem to be reaching for quarterbacks in the first round, and Washington's Jake Locker, Auburn's Cam Newton and Arkansas' Ryan Mallett all have the kind of upside that could tempt teams at the top of the board.
Eight of the teams picking in the top 10 -- Carolina, No. 2 Denver, No. 3 Buffalo, No. 4 Cincinnati, No. 5 Arizona, No. 7 San Francisco, No. 8 Tennessee and No. 10 Washington -- have some kind of quarterback need and all will certainly consider whether the quarterbacks listed above are worth the risk.
One or more teams will likely reach for one or more of the quarterbacks above, but the reality is that all three are a long way from being NFL-ready. They are physically talented but they're also developmental projects with bust potential and it's scary for teams to think about investing first-round money in that kind of boom-or-bust prospect, especially at quarterback.
Some have also wondered whether Luck's decision might move Ohio State junior Terrelle Pryor far enough up the quarterback board to entice him to enter the draft, but Pryor's too far away from NFL-ready to be considered with the top players at his position.
Even if all the eligible underclassmen returned to school Pryor would not be a first-round pick, and he'll be making the right decision if he honors his commitments to stay in Columbus for his senior year.
In the end, Luck's decision bumps the quarterbacks behind him up a bit and creates plenty of chaos for the teams and prospects involved in the early part of the first round. We've suddenly gone from a once-in-a-decade kind of prospect locking down the top spot to a whirlwind of questions to be answered over the next three-plus months.
Scouts Inc.'s Top 5 Overall
1. Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
2. Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
3. Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
4. A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
5. Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
Scouts Inc.'s Top 5 QBs
1. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
2. Jake Locker, Washington
3. Cam Newton, Auburn
4. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
5. Christian Ponder, Fla. St.
Todd McShay
Scouts Inc.
It's hard to look at QB Andrew Luck's decision to return to Stanford for his redshirt junior year and believe it's about anything other than what he says: the chance to earn his degree and experience another year of college life.
Yes, it's a business decision to some degree. Luck's father, Oliver, is a former NFL quarterback and the current athletic director at West Virginia, and the family is plugged-in enough to know that no 2011 rookies will get paid until a new NFL collective bargaining agreement is in place and any new agreement will likely contain a rookie wage scale.
That means no matter what, Luck would not have topped the $50 million guaranteed that Sam Bradford got as the No. 1 overall pick last year. And in the event the players are locked out by their owners, Luck will be playing the college season instead of working out and waiting for the business of the NFL to be taken care of.
Even if he wasn't going to surpass Bradford's contract Luck left a lot of money on the table, but he seems to genuinely enjoy the college experience and everything it entails, and he seems truly committed to earning a diploma. Kudos to him.
The football fallout
So what does Luck's decision mean from a football standpoint? First and foremost, it means the Carolina Panthers organization is in a tough spot and current Panthers QB Jimmy Clausen is one of the happiest guys in the league.
All the buzz out of Carolina was that the Panthers were going to take Luck at No. 1 overall despite choosing Clausen in the second round last year, and rightly so given Luck's NFL-ready skill set. But with Luck no longer in the mix Clausen has gone from a guy looking to wait out his rookie contract and get out of town to the returning starter despite an underwhelming rookie campaign.
So who do the Panthers take with the top pick? As much as we like Missouri junior QB Blaine Gabbert and his enormous physical tools, he's no Luck. Gabbert has the arm and intangibles to be a starter in the NFL for a long time but he played in a spread system in college and will need time to transition to a pro-style offense.
Clemson junior DE Da'Quan Bowers has announced his intention to enter the draft, and as an impact pass rusher he would have to be an option for Carolina. It's uncertain from there, though, because the remaining players in the top five overall include a pair of defensive tackles -- neither of whom is on the same level as Ndamukong Suh, the second pick in 2010 -- and a cornerback and wide receiver who might not have the positional value to be No. 1 overall. There's no franchise left tackle in this year's class, either.
As for the remaining quarterbacks on the board, Luck's move certainly helps them. Teams always seem to be reaching for quarterbacks in the first round, and Washington's Jake Locker, Auburn's Cam Newton and Arkansas' Ryan Mallett all have the kind of upside that could tempt teams at the top of the board.
Eight of the teams picking in the top 10 -- Carolina, No. 2 Denver, No. 3 Buffalo, No. 4 Cincinnati, No. 5 Arizona, No. 7 San Francisco, No. 8 Tennessee and No. 10 Washington -- have some kind of quarterback need and all will certainly consider whether the quarterbacks listed above are worth the risk.
One or more teams will likely reach for one or more of the quarterbacks above, but the reality is that all three are a long way from being NFL-ready. They are physically talented but they're also developmental projects with bust potential and it's scary for teams to think about investing first-round money in that kind of boom-or-bust prospect, especially at quarterback.
Some have also wondered whether Luck's decision might move Ohio State junior Terrelle Pryor far enough up the quarterback board to entice him to enter the draft, but Pryor's too far away from NFL-ready to be considered with the top players at his position.
Even if all the eligible underclassmen returned to school Pryor would not be a first-round pick, and he'll be making the right decision if he honors his commitments to stay in Columbus for his senior year.
In the end, Luck's decision bumps the quarterbacks behind him up a bit and creates plenty of chaos for the teams and prospects involved in the early part of the first round. We've suddenly gone from a once-in-a-decade kind of prospect locking down the top spot to a whirlwind of questions to be answered over the next three-plus months.
Scouts Inc.'s Top 5 Overall
1. Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
2. Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
3. Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
4. A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
5. Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
Scouts Inc.'s Top 5 QBs
1. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
2. Jake Locker, Washington
3. Cam Newton, Auburn
4. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
5. Christian Ponder, Fla. St.