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There are question marks, but Cameron Newton's physical skills will carry him
By Mel Kiper
ESPN Insider
Go ahead and look it up. Last year at this time, I said that Tim Tebow might even be better off in the NFL as an H-back. My colleague Todd McShay was also questioning Tebow, openly wondering whether the Florida star had any hope of being a QB at the NFL level. These were real conclusions (check out the 2:15 mark in this video clip). And while we both ultimately stated that Tebow would go pretty high because someone would fall in love with his potential, his prospects as an NFL QB were always in question, and still are, frankly.
It's fair to mention Tebow, because he and Cameron Newton are often linked. They are QBs known as much or more for their SEC rushing exploits; there are the Florida ties, the lack of experience in a pro-style offense, the questions about reading coverages. But that's where it should end, because their draft status at similar stages in their careers isn't similar. That's because as a QB prospect, there is no reason Newton can't or shouldn't be a first-round pick in the NFL draft. He's ahead of where Tebow was at this point, in my eyes. This isn't an H-back, or a guy better-suited to tight end. He's a quarterback, and while he has questions to answer, he's also got a real shot to make it at the next level.
So while the storm clouds around him make me think he is more likely to test the draft waters than come back for another season, it's time for an evaluation -- positives, negatives, and where his draft stock is right now. Newton cracks the Big Board this week.
Some reasons why, questions he'll need to answer, and where he could land:
The Positives
• Newton has incredible physical talent: Think of a negative associated with his physical abilities, and there's a positive response. For instance, you can question whether you want a QB who is inclined to run. But what about a guy who I think will run in the 4.5 range? How is that a negative? People see the size, 6-foot-6 and about 250 pounds, and make JaMarcus Russell comparisons. That is unfair. Russell was never considered very mobile. There isn't one aspect to Newton's remarkable physical skill set that I would call a negative.
• His mechanics are pretty solid: When I've studied him, Newton shows solid throwing fundamentals and really spins the ball well. There are fair questions about his footwork, but that's the kind of thing a QB coach can iron out. We're asking the same questions about Jake Locker. Recall that Vince Young's mechanics were a mess and Tebow's throwing motion literally had to be altered, and you'll realize that footwork hiccups can be overcome. Auburn doesn't do complex things in the passing game, but Newton's 68.2 completion percentage (seventh nationally) can't be simply dismissed.
• He wins: Newton has been allergic to losing. He won while backing up at Florida, he won in junior college, and he's the difference between a potential undefeated Auburn team and a team that would be 7-5 without him. He's been a total difference-maker to this point in his career.
• When he does run, he's gifted: Anybody who watched Michael Vick on Monday knows that the NFL, while better-suited for the true thrower who can avoid taking on LBs as a runner, is a league in which QBs with running talent can succeed. And Newton is unreal in this area. He sets up blocks, he makes people miss, he shows patience. And this from a guy who is about one trip to the steakhouse short of Brian Urlacher's measureables.
The questions
• Character: I don't know Cam Newton. From what I've heard, he's a great kid. But I'm an evaluator, and I can promise you that any team about to make a major investment in him -- not just in terms of dollars, but as a potential face of the franchise -- is going to ask about his time at Florida. And they're going to ask about the recruiting issues. And they're going to ask about his dad's role in his life. Criticize it and defend Newton all you want, but anyone who understands the draft process knows there is very little that NFL evaluators will consider out-of-bounds when it comes time to gauge character, and Newton will have to face all of it.
• Pro-style reads and throws: So much of what comes open in the passing game at Auburn is a result of the almost impossible-to-stop rushing attack. No NFL offense will have such an advantage, and like any QB entering the league, Newton will have to deal with dramatically smaller throwing lanes and windows. While people might say that Sam Bradford (and other, more conventional QBs) also had to do the same, you're also talking about guys who routinely threw in timing-based passing offenses. Bradford has extraordinarily good accuracy. Newton has much to prove in this area.
• Patience as a passer: I don't consider this a big question mark, but Newton will have to prove that his second read means another receiver in a pattern, not his own legs. Can he develop as a guy who uses his running as a last resort, instead of an immediate instinct? I think so, but it's an area of development.
• Reps: Newton simply doesn't have a lot of experience at a high level of football. If he's involved in the draft process, he'll have perhaps 14 total starts in college football at the highest level. Colt McCoy didn't have Newton's physical talents, but his experience wasn't in question, and he's been able to start early because of that. Newton could be more of a project.
Draft stock
If Young, with his limitations, and Tebow, with all the question marks, became first-round picks, there's absolutely no reason that Newton can't be a first-round pick. His physical talents are exceptional, his ability to will his team to victories is clear, and if he can answer the big questions, it's hard to fathom teams will be able to pass on his potential.
By Mel Kiper
ESPN Insider
Go ahead and look it up. Last year at this time, I said that Tim Tebow might even be better off in the NFL as an H-back. My colleague Todd McShay was also questioning Tebow, openly wondering whether the Florida star had any hope of being a QB at the NFL level. These were real conclusions (check out the 2:15 mark in this video clip). And while we both ultimately stated that Tebow would go pretty high because someone would fall in love with his potential, his prospects as an NFL QB were always in question, and still are, frankly.
It's fair to mention Tebow, because he and Cameron Newton are often linked. They are QBs known as much or more for their SEC rushing exploits; there are the Florida ties, the lack of experience in a pro-style offense, the questions about reading coverages. But that's where it should end, because their draft status at similar stages in their careers isn't similar. That's because as a QB prospect, there is no reason Newton can't or shouldn't be a first-round pick in the NFL draft. He's ahead of where Tebow was at this point, in my eyes. This isn't an H-back, or a guy better-suited to tight end. He's a quarterback, and while he has questions to answer, he's also got a real shot to make it at the next level.
So while the storm clouds around him make me think he is more likely to test the draft waters than come back for another season, it's time for an evaluation -- positives, negatives, and where his draft stock is right now. Newton cracks the Big Board this week.
Some reasons why, questions he'll need to answer, and where he could land:
The Positives
• Newton has incredible physical talent: Think of a negative associated with his physical abilities, and there's a positive response. For instance, you can question whether you want a QB who is inclined to run. But what about a guy who I think will run in the 4.5 range? How is that a negative? People see the size, 6-foot-6 and about 250 pounds, and make JaMarcus Russell comparisons. That is unfair. Russell was never considered very mobile. There isn't one aspect to Newton's remarkable physical skill set that I would call a negative.
• His mechanics are pretty solid: When I've studied him, Newton shows solid throwing fundamentals and really spins the ball well. There are fair questions about his footwork, but that's the kind of thing a QB coach can iron out. We're asking the same questions about Jake Locker. Recall that Vince Young's mechanics were a mess and Tebow's throwing motion literally had to be altered, and you'll realize that footwork hiccups can be overcome. Auburn doesn't do complex things in the passing game, but Newton's 68.2 completion percentage (seventh nationally) can't be simply dismissed.
• He wins: Newton has been allergic to losing. He won while backing up at Florida, he won in junior college, and he's the difference between a potential undefeated Auburn team and a team that would be 7-5 without him. He's been a total difference-maker to this point in his career.
• When he does run, he's gifted: Anybody who watched Michael Vick on Monday knows that the NFL, while better-suited for the true thrower who can avoid taking on LBs as a runner, is a league in which QBs with running talent can succeed. And Newton is unreal in this area. He sets up blocks, he makes people miss, he shows patience. And this from a guy who is about one trip to the steakhouse short of Brian Urlacher's measureables.
The questions
• Character: I don't know Cam Newton. From what I've heard, he's a great kid. But I'm an evaluator, and I can promise you that any team about to make a major investment in him -- not just in terms of dollars, but as a potential face of the franchise -- is going to ask about his time at Florida. And they're going to ask about the recruiting issues. And they're going to ask about his dad's role in his life. Criticize it and defend Newton all you want, but anyone who understands the draft process knows there is very little that NFL evaluators will consider out-of-bounds when it comes time to gauge character, and Newton will have to face all of it.
• Pro-style reads and throws: So much of what comes open in the passing game at Auburn is a result of the almost impossible-to-stop rushing attack. No NFL offense will have such an advantage, and like any QB entering the league, Newton will have to deal with dramatically smaller throwing lanes and windows. While people might say that Sam Bradford (and other, more conventional QBs) also had to do the same, you're also talking about guys who routinely threw in timing-based passing offenses. Bradford has extraordinarily good accuracy. Newton has much to prove in this area.
• Patience as a passer: I don't consider this a big question mark, but Newton will have to prove that his second read means another receiver in a pattern, not his own legs. Can he develop as a guy who uses his running as a last resort, instead of an immediate instinct? I think so, but it's an area of development.
• Reps: Newton simply doesn't have a lot of experience at a high level of football. If he's involved in the draft process, he'll have perhaps 14 total starts in college football at the highest level. Colt McCoy didn't have Newton's physical talents, but his experience wasn't in question, and he's been able to start early because of that. Newton could be more of a project.
Draft stock
If Young, with his limitations, and Tebow, with all the question marks, became first-round picks, there's absolutely no reason that Newton can't be a first-round pick. His physical talents are exceptional, his ability to will his team to victories is clear, and if he can answer the big questions, it's hard to fathom teams will be able to pass on his potential.
