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Examining the early returns of several teams from this year's draft
By Mel Kiper
ESPN Insider
How has the draft affected the current season? Mel Kiper takes a look.
Let's get this out of the way right now: These aren't grades, mandates, final conclusions or a line in the sand. We're halfway through the NFL season, so let's call it a progress report. I was asked to pick out a handful of teams that have been successful in finding early value by implementing their draft picks from April into their personnel mix. I was also asked to pick out a handful of teams that simply haven't found much value yet.
From the top of the draft (St. Louis and Detroit) to teams that picked later and did a lot of their best work in the middle rounds -- such as Oakland or New England -- there are good stories. But a quick caveat: It goes without saying that teams who drafted earlier had an edge because they got a higher-rated player in many cases and simply had more holes to fill. Sam Bradford is starting, but consider the alternatives. (He didn't beat out Tom Brady ...). Secondly, because you haven't gotten much from the draft early doesn't mean you didn't have a good draft. An example is Pittsburgh, which did well grabbing the fantastic Maurkice Pouncey and added depth elsewhere, but if your roster was already deep it's hard to see early dividends.
Hot starts
New England Patriots
The Pats deserve special props because they've implemented guys early, and they've done it while winning football games. That's not easy. But look at this draft. They hit needs and got value everywhere. Devin McCourty is starting, TE tandem Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez haven't just helped Tom Brady they've helped shift the entire offensive philosophy it seems -- just ask Randy Moss. On defense, the picks of Jermaine Cunningham and Brandon Spikes are solid, as both have contributed positively. Even Zoltan Mesko in Round 5 has proven to be a solid pick, and considering what the Patriots have done to set themselves up for the next draft, it's a pretty remarkable stretch.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs figured to do well, given a high slot and so many holes, but even past the solid early dividends from the Eric Berry, Dexter McCluster and Javier Arenas picks, getting Tony Moeaki at No. 93 overall looks like a steal. He already has 30 catches and should be a cornerstone in that offense.
Oakland Raiders
I just wrote about them last week, but they deserve another mention after the Jacoby Ford coming-out party on Sunday. Ford was a classic Al Davis pick, as the guy who ran the fastest forty in Indy and has clearly developed receiving skills that frankly didn't get him high marks at the combine. Really, the top of the draft is where the Raiders have seen dividends. Rolando McClain, Lamarr Houston and Jared Veldheer are already playing key roles on a surging team.
Cleveland Browns
The improvement and quick development of Colt McCoy adds a lot to this mix, but credit the Browns for staying committed to a CB pick early, even after Joe Haden's stock had taken some hits. I thought the Browns reached on T.J. Ward, but I've said more than once he's proving me wrong. Good conviction and results with those first two picks, and they played the board perfectly on McCoy, who many (myself included) thought they might take at No. 38 overall.
Detroit Lions
Yes, we thought the Lions would do well, given their holes, but Ndamukong Suh has surpassed all expectations thus far and is producing at a much higher rate than Gerald McCoy, who some folks had rated higher. Remember, as well, that Detroit traded up for Jahvid Best, who's been a key for that offense even as he plays hurt. Quietly, the Lions may have shown solid vision with the pick of Amari Spievey, a guy who played CB all through college but was immediately shifted to safety, where he now starts.
Others
We knew Bradford would get the nod, but Rodger Saffold quietly has turned into a steal for St. Louis ... Tampa's work in getting Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams well down the board looks inspired now ... Jacksonville didn't win any value discussions, but Tyson Alualu can play ... Philly added a bunch of depth and an immediate starter in Nate Allen. Riley Cooper also looks like a 5th-round steal.
Slow starts
Minnesota Vikings
One thing Vikes fans will hate to be reminded of is that the team could have taken Best as the ideal third-down back replacing Chester Taylor but traded down with division rival Detroit, took Chris Cook (who's been stalled by injuries) then took Toby Gerhart after trading up. Gerhart is a nice player but is a total work-in-progress in terms of the pass-catching role they need him to fill. He could pan out, but again this is about early dividends and the Vikes aren't seeing much.
Buffalo Bills
I love C.J. Spiller as a talent, but I wonder if the Bills do as much as they did when they drafted him with the No. 9 pick, when they had other significant needs. Spiller has fewer than half the carries of Fred Jackson, and this is after they traded away Marshawn Lynch. After that, there hasn't been much early production. The team is 0-8 and never addressed the offensive line. (Ed Wang, a 5th round pick, is out injured.)
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is here mostly because it has a decent roster and got some key guys back after injuries took a toll in 2009, but I gave the Falcons a C+ after the draft, and they haven't really seen a ton of production. I think Corey Peters and Sean Weatherspoon should continue to develop and could be solid starters in this league, but it's not a high upside group.
Baltimore Ravens
A draft I loved in terms of value hasn't helped much early. Sergio Kindle is hurt, and elsewhere the players higher on the depth chart are simply too talented to let the current crop make a dent.
Denver Broncos
Denver shouldn't be here because of the work it did after Round 1. It got guys it could use in Syd'Quan Thompson and Perrish Cox; solid value in Zane Beadles and J.D. Walton; but you have to wonder if it over-valued its level of talent. Demaryius Thomas is coming on, but the Broncos used two valuable first round picks on guys that won't do much in terms of helping them win this year, and that's what this list is about.
Seattle Seahawks
I still like the Seahawks' draft, but if it's about immediate dividends only Earl Thomas has lived up to draft-day hype. Russell Okung has been saddled with injuries, and Golden Tate's down-the-field skills are limited in an offense in which decent QB play has been sparse behind a leaky O-line.
Others
Arizona is getting flashes from early picks, but it'll be interesting to see if Max Hall (an UFA) becomes their most important pickup ... I get the feeling this is a bit of a red-shirt year for Jason Pierre-Paul ... Given his skill-set, I'm surprised Jerry Hughes hasn't been more a part of the Indy rotation.
Mel Kiper, who has been covering the NFL draft for ESPN since 1984, can be found year-round at his homepage.
By Mel Kiper
ESPN Insider
How has the draft affected the current season? Mel Kiper takes a look.
Let's get this out of the way right now: These aren't grades, mandates, final conclusions or a line in the sand. We're halfway through the NFL season, so let's call it a progress report. I was asked to pick out a handful of teams that have been successful in finding early value by implementing their draft picks from April into their personnel mix. I was also asked to pick out a handful of teams that simply haven't found much value yet.
From the top of the draft (St. Louis and Detroit) to teams that picked later and did a lot of their best work in the middle rounds -- such as Oakland or New England -- there are good stories. But a quick caveat: It goes without saying that teams who drafted earlier had an edge because they got a higher-rated player in many cases and simply had more holes to fill. Sam Bradford is starting, but consider the alternatives. (He didn't beat out Tom Brady ...). Secondly, because you haven't gotten much from the draft early doesn't mean you didn't have a good draft. An example is Pittsburgh, which did well grabbing the fantastic Maurkice Pouncey and added depth elsewhere, but if your roster was already deep it's hard to see early dividends.
Hot starts
New England Patriots
The Pats deserve special props because they've implemented guys early, and they've done it while winning football games. That's not easy. But look at this draft. They hit needs and got value everywhere. Devin McCourty is starting, TE tandem Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez haven't just helped Tom Brady they've helped shift the entire offensive philosophy it seems -- just ask Randy Moss. On defense, the picks of Jermaine Cunningham and Brandon Spikes are solid, as both have contributed positively. Even Zoltan Mesko in Round 5 has proven to be a solid pick, and considering what the Patriots have done to set themselves up for the next draft, it's a pretty remarkable stretch.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs figured to do well, given a high slot and so many holes, but even past the solid early dividends from the Eric Berry, Dexter McCluster and Javier Arenas picks, getting Tony Moeaki at No. 93 overall looks like a steal. He already has 30 catches and should be a cornerstone in that offense.
Oakland Raiders
I just wrote about them last week, but they deserve another mention after the Jacoby Ford coming-out party on Sunday. Ford was a classic Al Davis pick, as the guy who ran the fastest forty in Indy and has clearly developed receiving skills that frankly didn't get him high marks at the combine. Really, the top of the draft is where the Raiders have seen dividends. Rolando McClain, Lamarr Houston and Jared Veldheer are already playing key roles on a surging team.
Cleveland Browns
The improvement and quick development of Colt McCoy adds a lot to this mix, but credit the Browns for staying committed to a CB pick early, even after Joe Haden's stock had taken some hits. I thought the Browns reached on T.J. Ward, but I've said more than once he's proving me wrong. Good conviction and results with those first two picks, and they played the board perfectly on McCoy, who many (myself included) thought they might take at No. 38 overall.
Detroit Lions
Yes, we thought the Lions would do well, given their holes, but Ndamukong Suh has surpassed all expectations thus far and is producing at a much higher rate than Gerald McCoy, who some folks had rated higher. Remember, as well, that Detroit traded up for Jahvid Best, who's been a key for that offense even as he plays hurt. Quietly, the Lions may have shown solid vision with the pick of Amari Spievey, a guy who played CB all through college but was immediately shifted to safety, where he now starts.
Others
We knew Bradford would get the nod, but Rodger Saffold quietly has turned into a steal for St. Louis ... Tampa's work in getting Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams well down the board looks inspired now ... Jacksonville didn't win any value discussions, but Tyson Alualu can play ... Philly added a bunch of depth and an immediate starter in Nate Allen. Riley Cooper also looks like a 5th-round steal.
Slow starts
Minnesota Vikings
One thing Vikes fans will hate to be reminded of is that the team could have taken Best as the ideal third-down back replacing Chester Taylor but traded down with division rival Detroit, took Chris Cook (who's been stalled by injuries) then took Toby Gerhart after trading up. Gerhart is a nice player but is a total work-in-progress in terms of the pass-catching role they need him to fill. He could pan out, but again this is about early dividends and the Vikes aren't seeing much.
Buffalo Bills
I love C.J. Spiller as a talent, but I wonder if the Bills do as much as they did when they drafted him with the No. 9 pick, when they had other significant needs. Spiller has fewer than half the carries of Fred Jackson, and this is after they traded away Marshawn Lynch. After that, there hasn't been much early production. The team is 0-8 and never addressed the offensive line. (Ed Wang, a 5th round pick, is out injured.)
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is here mostly because it has a decent roster and got some key guys back after injuries took a toll in 2009, but I gave the Falcons a C+ after the draft, and they haven't really seen a ton of production. I think Corey Peters and Sean Weatherspoon should continue to develop and could be solid starters in this league, but it's not a high upside group.
Baltimore Ravens
A draft I loved in terms of value hasn't helped much early. Sergio Kindle is hurt, and elsewhere the players higher on the depth chart are simply too talented to let the current crop make a dent.
Denver Broncos
Denver shouldn't be here because of the work it did after Round 1. It got guys it could use in Syd'Quan Thompson and Perrish Cox; solid value in Zane Beadles and J.D. Walton; but you have to wonder if it over-valued its level of talent. Demaryius Thomas is coming on, but the Broncos used two valuable first round picks on guys that won't do much in terms of helping them win this year, and that's what this list is about.
Seattle Seahawks
I still like the Seahawks' draft, but if it's about immediate dividends only Earl Thomas has lived up to draft-day hype. Russell Okung has been saddled with injuries, and Golden Tate's down-the-field skills are limited in an offense in which decent QB play has been sparse behind a leaky O-line.
Others
Arizona is getting flashes from early picks, but it'll be interesting to see if Max Hall (an UFA) becomes their most important pickup ... I get the feeling this is a bit of a red-shirt year for Jason Pierre-Paul ... Given his skill-set, I'm surprised Jerry Hughes hasn't been more a part of the Indy rotation.
Mel Kiper, who has been covering the NFL draft for ESPN since 1984, can be found year-round at his homepage.
