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Andrew Luck just above top defenders
Underclassmen and defensive prospects dominate the top of the initial 2011 mock draft
By Todd McShay
ESPN.com
No, it's never too early for a mock draft. The 2010 college football season is 10 weeks old and we at Scouts Inc. have had plenty of time to watch film and shuffle our board, so why not take a stab at a first-round projection?
Stanford QB Andrew Luck has established himself as the top prospect on the board and looks like a slam-dunk for the quarterback-starved Buffalo Bills, but after Luck, defensive prospects dominate the top of the board with four defensive linemen and two cornerbacks filling out the next six spots.
The rest of the top 10 features an offensive tackle, another quaterback and the rare early-first-round wide receiver.
Here's how it all shakes out at this very early point in the pre-draft process. Things will change a lot between now and April, but based on what we've seen so far in 2010, this is our best early projection. The order is based on the inverse NFL standings. Ties between teams with the same record are broken using opponents' winning percentage, with teams with the lower percentage getting the earlier pick.
1) Buffalo Bills
Record: 0-8
Andrew Luck*, QB, Stanford
Luck is the complete package. He would quickly provide Buffalo with the most efficient quarterback play it has seen since the Jim Kelly era.
-
2) Carolina Panthers
Record: 1-7
Marcell Dareus*, DT, Alabama
The Panthers once-vaunted defensive front seven is a mess. The good news is that Dareus is one of several defensive linemen worthy of top-20 consideration in this year's draft.
-
3) Dallas Cowboys
Record: 1-7
Da'Quan Bowers*, DE, Clemson
Marcus Spears might not be long for Dallas but the Cowboys need to figure out their defensive scheme before locking in their personnel. However, Bowers is a stud and can fit in any defensive scheme. He leads the FBS in sacks and is blessed with a rare combination of size and athleticism.
-
4) San Francisco 49ers
Record: 2-6
Patrick Peterson*, CB, LSU
Peterson is the closest thing you will find to a shutdown cover corner in college football. He's also shown remarkable return skills in 2010 in his first year on the job.
-
5) Denver Broncos
Record: 2-6
Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Denver needs a stud defensive lineman more than it needs a cornerback but Amukamara is more talented than any available prospect who would fit the team's three-man front. Champ Bailey's days with the Broncos could be numbered so bringing in a young talent like Amukamara would make sense.
-
6) Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 2-6
Robert Quinn*, DE, North Carolina
Quinn is a naturally gifted pass-rusher with an enormously high ceiling but he will enter the NFL having not played football in more than a year. The Bengals have never shied away from risk, though, so why start now?
-
7) Detroit Lions
Record: 2-6
Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
This might be a bit high for Clayborn, but the top two cornerbacks (Peterson and Amukamara) are off the board and it's never a bad idea to stockpile young talent along the defensive front.
-
8) Minnesota Vikings
Record: 3-5
Jake Locker, QB, Washington
Tough call here. Locker's stock is clearly dropping but it will ascend again between now and April. A quarterback with his natural tools, work ethic and competitiveness rarely lasts beyond the top 20 picks. If it's not the Vikings who pull the trigger, the Cardinals and Jaguars are the next two quarterback-needy teams in line.
-
9) Arizona Cardinals
Record: 3-5
Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
The Cardinals could be gun shy about spending first-round money on a quarterback so soon after the Matt Leinart debacle. If Luck and Locker are off the board, it would be a no-brainer to look in a different direction. Solder is the most complete talent in a pedestrian group of 2011 offensive line prospects.
-
10) Cleveland Browns
Record: 3-5
A.J. Green*, WR, Georgia
The Browns have needs along the defensive front but at this spot they cannot pass up on the most complete wide receiver prospects to enter the NFL draft since Calvin Johnson (Lions).
-
11) San Diego Chargers
Record: 4-5
Akeem Ayers*, OLB, UCLA
Ayers is a great fit as an outside linebacker in the Chargers' 3-4 scheme. He's not quite a young Shawne Merriman but he's a talented pass-rusher nonetheless.
-
12) Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 4-4
Ryan Mallett*, QB, Arkansas
Taking Mallett here would be too rich for my blood, but the Jaguars are in dire need of an upgrade at quarterback and Mallett's riffle arm will be pretty tempting.
-
13) St. Louis Rams
Record: 4-4
Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
There is not another receiver worth drafting in the top 25 picks, so the Rams can use this pick to continue rebuilding the defense. Paea's nonstop motor, quickness and power would fit nicely along one of the league's most improved defensive fronts.
-
14) Seattle Seahawks
Record: 4-4
Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
There's no Eric Berry- or Earl Thomas-like safety prospect in the 2011 class, so the Seahawks might need to settle for one of the top offensive linemen. Castonzo is a good athlete for a player with his long frame and he continues to add bulk and strength.
-
15) Washington Redskins
Record: 4-4
Janoris Jenkins*, CB, Florida
There's no wide receiver or quarterback worth drafting at this spot. Running back is another need area, but do not expect a Mike Shanahan-coached squad to use a first-round pick on one. Jenkins is the most underrated defensive back in the 2011 draft and his smooth cover skills and ball-hawking ability would be welcome additions to the Redskins' secondary.
-
16) Houston Texans
Record: 4-4
Allen Bailey, DE, Miami
It's entirely too early to press the panic button on 2010 first-round CB Kareem Jackson, but the Texans still wouldn't mind seeing Jenkins fall this far. With him off the board, why not take the best available talent on the board? Bailey's versatility and interior pass-rushing skills could help Houston's underachieving defensive line finally turn the corner.
Underclassmen and defensive prospects dominate the top of the initial 2011 mock draft
By Todd McShay
ESPN.com
No, it's never too early for a mock draft. The 2010 college football season is 10 weeks old and we at Scouts Inc. have had plenty of time to watch film and shuffle our board, so why not take a stab at a first-round projection?
Stanford QB Andrew Luck has established himself as the top prospect on the board and looks like a slam-dunk for the quarterback-starved Buffalo Bills, but after Luck, defensive prospects dominate the top of the board with four defensive linemen and two cornerbacks filling out the next six spots.
The rest of the top 10 features an offensive tackle, another quaterback and the rare early-first-round wide receiver.
Here's how it all shakes out at this very early point in the pre-draft process. Things will change a lot between now and April, but based on what we've seen so far in 2010, this is our best early projection. The order is based on the inverse NFL standings. Ties between teams with the same record are broken using opponents' winning percentage, with teams with the lower percentage getting the earlier pick.
1) Buffalo Bills
Record: 0-8
Andrew Luck*, QB, Stanford
Luck is the complete package. He would quickly provide Buffalo with the most efficient quarterback play it has seen since the Jim Kelly era.
-
2) Carolina Panthers
Record: 1-7
Marcell Dareus*, DT, Alabama
The Panthers once-vaunted defensive front seven is a mess. The good news is that Dareus is one of several defensive linemen worthy of top-20 consideration in this year's draft.
-
3) Dallas Cowboys
Record: 1-7
Da'Quan Bowers*, DE, Clemson
Marcus Spears might not be long for Dallas but the Cowboys need to figure out their defensive scheme before locking in their personnel. However, Bowers is a stud and can fit in any defensive scheme. He leads the FBS in sacks and is blessed with a rare combination of size and athleticism.
-
4) San Francisco 49ers
Record: 2-6
Patrick Peterson*, CB, LSU
Peterson is the closest thing you will find to a shutdown cover corner in college football. He's also shown remarkable return skills in 2010 in his first year on the job.
-
5) Denver Broncos
Record: 2-6
Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Denver needs a stud defensive lineman more than it needs a cornerback but Amukamara is more talented than any available prospect who would fit the team's three-man front. Champ Bailey's days with the Broncos could be numbered so bringing in a young talent like Amukamara would make sense.
-
6) Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 2-6
Robert Quinn*, DE, North Carolina
Quinn is a naturally gifted pass-rusher with an enormously high ceiling but he will enter the NFL having not played football in more than a year. The Bengals have never shied away from risk, though, so why start now?
-
7) Detroit Lions
Record: 2-6
Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
This might be a bit high for Clayborn, but the top two cornerbacks (Peterson and Amukamara) are off the board and it's never a bad idea to stockpile young talent along the defensive front.
-
8) Minnesota Vikings
Record: 3-5
Jake Locker, QB, Washington
Tough call here. Locker's stock is clearly dropping but it will ascend again between now and April. A quarterback with his natural tools, work ethic and competitiveness rarely lasts beyond the top 20 picks. If it's not the Vikings who pull the trigger, the Cardinals and Jaguars are the next two quarterback-needy teams in line.
-
9) Arizona Cardinals
Record: 3-5
Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
The Cardinals could be gun shy about spending first-round money on a quarterback so soon after the Matt Leinart debacle. If Luck and Locker are off the board, it would be a no-brainer to look in a different direction. Solder is the most complete talent in a pedestrian group of 2011 offensive line prospects.
-
10) Cleveland Browns
Record: 3-5
A.J. Green*, WR, Georgia
The Browns have needs along the defensive front but at this spot they cannot pass up on the most complete wide receiver prospects to enter the NFL draft since Calvin Johnson (Lions).
-
11) San Diego Chargers
Record: 4-5
Akeem Ayers*, OLB, UCLA
Ayers is a great fit as an outside linebacker in the Chargers' 3-4 scheme. He's not quite a young Shawne Merriman but he's a talented pass-rusher nonetheless.
-
12) Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 4-4
Ryan Mallett*, QB, Arkansas
Taking Mallett here would be too rich for my blood, but the Jaguars are in dire need of an upgrade at quarterback and Mallett's riffle arm will be pretty tempting.
-
13) St. Louis Rams
Record: 4-4
Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
There is not another receiver worth drafting in the top 25 picks, so the Rams can use this pick to continue rebuilding the defense. Paea's nonstop motor, quickness and power would fit nicely along one of the league's most improved defensive fronts.
-
14) Seattle Seahawks
Record: 4-4
Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
There's no Eric Berry- or Earl Thomas-like safety prospect in the 2011 class, so the Seahawks might need to settle for one of the top offensive linemen. Castonzo is a good athlete for a player with his long frame and he continues to add bulk and strength.
-
15) Washington Redskins
Record: 4-4
Janoris Jenkins*, CB, Florida
There's no wide receiver or quarterback worth drafting at this spot. Running back is another need area, but do not expect a Mike Shanahan-coached squad to use a first-round pick on one. Jenkins is the most underrated defensive back in the 2011 draft and his smooth cover skills and ball-hawking ability would be welcome additions to the Redskins' secondary.
-
16) Houston Texans
Record: 4-4
Allen Bailey, DE, Miami
It's entirely too early to press the panic button on 2010 first-round CB Kareem Jackson, but the Texans still wouldn't mind seeing Jenkins fall this far. With him off the board, why not take the best available talent on the board? Bailey's versatility and interior pass-rushing skills could help Houston's underachieving defensive line finally turn the corner.